According to the report issued by the China Electricity Council on the 23rd, China will still face a power gap of 30-40 million kilowatts this summer as it did last year, and the scope of power drawdown may increase. East China and South China have the most strained electricity consumption, and North China and Central China are tight. Northeast China There will be surplus in the northwest.
According to the “Analysis and Forecast Report on the Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in the First Quarterâ€, although the growth in power demand has slowed down this year, the overall trend is steadily increasing, and supply and demand will remain tight overall. In particular, the maximum power shortage during the summer peak hours may be around 30 million kilowatts. In the event that uncertainties such as large-scale continuous hot weather are superimposed, the maximum gap may increase to 40 million kilowatts. The main factors affecting the summer power supply are the supply of electricity coal and weather and hydropower.
The report analyzes that as the temperature rises and industrial production recovers smoothly, the recovery in electricity demand will promote the recovery of coal prices. The national coal market price has fallen since November last year, stabilized in late February and stabilized steadily since March.
No sustained high-temperature weather occurred during the summer last year, and the growth rate of air-conditioning power load was relatively low. CEC believes that the air-conditioning load growth this year will likely return to a higher level in previous years. In case of extreme high temperatures, the use of electric loads will increase. Since February, the country’s hydroelectric power generation has resumed positive growth, but the incoming water in the southern region is still dry, which will continue to adversely affect the electricity supply.
In terms of sub-regions, the supply and demand of East China Power Grid is tight, and the largest gap will exceed 12 million kilowatts, of which Zhejiang and Jiangsu will not have sufficient supply capacity. Shanghai's supply and demand will be basically balanced, but there will be a certain gap during peak hours. China Southern Power Grid is also facing tight supply and demand. The largest gap exceeds 10 million kilowatts. Insufficient water supply and tight coal supply are the main factors. The overall supply and demand of North China Power Grid is tight, with the largest gap exceeding 5 million kilowatts. The power supply and demand of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan and Shandong provinces are generally balanced but there is a certain gap during peak hours. Central China Power Grid has a certain gap during the dry season and summer peak period, with a maximum gap of about 10 million kilowatts.
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