The Ministry of Commerce announced the first batch of rare earth export quotas for 2012 on the 27th. Although the cumulative amount of rare earth exports in the first 11 months of this year was only used for 49% of the annual quota, the 2012 rare earth export quota will remain unchanged from 2011.
Jin Bosong, deputy director of China Foreign Trade Research Department of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, told the China Securities Journal that next year's rare earth quotas will show the government's attitude of maintaining market stability. The trend of the price of rare earths will mainly be the global economic situation. .
The China Securities Journal reporter learned from a number of rare earth upstream and downstream companies at home and abroad that, due to the economic slowdown, weakening demand for rare earths to promote the price down, and environmental protection costs will provide support for the price, it is expected that early next year is still not optimistic. However, the divergences between the upstream and downstream enterprises of rare earths are still serious.
Upstream and downstream still have differences on prices
A person in charge of a rare-earth production company who entered the first batch of quotas told a China Securities Journal reporter that the current price of rare earth has been supported by environmental protection costs and production costs. Since the second half of this year, with the large-scale shutdown of rare earth enterprises, inventory consumption has been relatively low. More, the price of rare earths is expected to stabilize in the first quarter of next year. According to reports, the national rare earth quota has only been used up to 49%, but the export volume of leading enterprises is very different from that of small and medium-sized enterprises. The annual quota of the company's exports exceeds 80%, so it remains optimistic about the future market conditions.
Downstream companies have expressed the opposite view that the price of rare earth has not yet been adjusted. A person in charge of Bombardier Transportation Equipment Co., Ltd. said that the high price of rare earth prices has hit the profit margin of the company. Although the company can transfer cost pressures to downstream companies, the actual use of rare earths has decreased significantly. A magnetic company in Ningbo was subject to the dual pressures of high costs and sluggish exports, saying that it had to adopt measures to stop production.
Downstream weakness led to continued price declines. Business statistics show that the prices of yttrium oxide have kept falling, and the price of Guangshen Nonferrous Online has dropped from RMB 1.4 million/ton on August 11 to about RMB 760,000/ton on December 28, a drop of over 45%; Baotou Steel Rare Earths Co., Ltd. Online quotes dropped from 1,455,000 yuan/ton to around 770,000 yuan/ton.
An industry source told the China Securities Journal that the actual factory price has more room for maneuvering than the online offer, which is around 500,000-600,000 yuan per ton. According to reports, Baotou rare earth company has not entered the first list of quotas. Not only did the environmental protection fail to pass, but the enterprises themselves were not active in applying for quotas.
In early 2011, the price of rare earth export quotas was once raised to 500,000 yuan/ton. Experts from China Rare Earth Information Center Dou Xuehong told the China Securities Journal that under the high operating conditions of rare earth metals, external demand has weakened and the attractiveness of rare earth quotas has been reduced.
Foreign capital accelerates into China
The International Trade Department of Shanghai Heli Rare Earth Material Co., Ltd. Lu Yali told the China Securities Journal that the domestic rare earth industry is undergoing a process of reshuffling. For foreign rare earth industry chains, it is also undergoing a shuffle process. According to reports, some large foreign companies have been pressured by the cost of rare earths and began to cross the intermediate links and directly cooperate with Chinese raw material suppliers and middlemen, thus shortening the Chinese and foreign trade lines.
The key rare earth provinces began to attract the entry of the international high-end giants in processing materials. The reporter learned from the relevant personages in the South China Rare Earth Science and Technology City that the agency is accelerating the introduction of foreign rare earth high-end processing enterprises, and at the same time promote the entry of domestic rare earth leading enterprises to promote the entire industrial chain of rare earth Raw Materials, separation, advanced processing, and high-end materials. upgrade.
Ye Xin, an analyst of non-ferrous metal industry of Anxin Securities, told the China Securities Journal reporter that in the second half of the year, the price of domestic rare earth raw materials fell more, but the adjustment of customs export reference prices lags behind, causing export prices to remain high, affecting external demand. At present, the upstream manufacturers think that the price is reasonable, but the downstream manufacturers want to be cheaper and cause disagreement.
He said that with the strict control of rare earths and the rising prices of raw materials, foreign high-end rare earth companies will become a trend in China. As medium-heavy rare earth is mainly distributed in China, with the implementation of light rare earth and medium-heavy rare earth export classification management in 2012, actual export control will become tighter, and more foreign companies are expected to enter China to seek cooperation.
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