China Drying Network learns from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation that the Federation has for the first time invited BASF, Bayer, Celanese, Evonik, Dow Chemical and Solvay, and other multinational executives to carry out “the next decade of world oil The research on the development trend of the chemical industry and the opportunity for China's innovation and development opportunities, after nine months of research and compilation, has formed the “Taiwan's Future Research Report on China's Petroleum and Chemical Industryâ€. The report will be officially released in early November.
It is understood that the task force is headed by Li Yongwu, president of the Petrochemical Association; Li Shousheng, executive vice president of the Federation; Vice President of BASF Group; Woodk, chief representative of China, and Zhu Mingyue, president of Greater China, Solvay Investments Limited. Deputy team leader.
In an interview with reporters, Li Shousheng said that China has become a truly big country in the petrochemical industry. How to emerge from a road of innovation and development with Chinese characteristics and accelerate the leap to a world-renowned petrochemical powerhouse has become a major issue. At present, the country is embarking on the formulation of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†and it is necessary to make a correct judgment on the development trend of the world petrochemical industry and China’s innovation and development opportunities in the next ten years.
Based on this, the China Petrochemical Federation invites BAK Executive Chairman Bokaici, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dow Chemical Co., Li Weicheng, Johnson Matthey CEO Luo Mande, and Air Products, Bayer MaterialScience, and Cards. High-level decision makers of 17 multinational companies including Bot, Celanese, Dow Corning, Eastman, Evonik, INVISTA, LANXESS Chemical, LG Chem, Mitsui Chemicals, Mitsubishi Chemical, Solvay, and Saudi Basic Industries. Its global vision and unique insights provide decision-making advice for the future development of the China petrochemical industry.
The final "research report" includes the development trend of the world petrochemical industry in the next decade and the challenges and opportunities of China's petrochemical industry, the direction and focus of development, and policy recommendations for sustainable development.
The “research report†pointed out that in the next decade, under the impetus of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, the global petrochemical industry will develop five major new trends: First, the rapid rise of emerging markets will promote the continuous high-speed growth of the global petrochemical consumer market; The process of diversification of raw materials has accelerated, and major changes have taken place in the global energy raw material structure. Third, high-end, differentiated, in-depth development has driven the industry to continue to extend to the high end of the value chain. Fourth, safety and environmental protection constraints have become increasingly stronger, and green and low carbon have become new directions for development; Fifth, global economic integration and regional trade facilitation are intertwined, and the uncertainty in the international trade of petrochemical products has further increased.
During this period, the development of China's petrochemical industry faces several major challenges. For example, if the industrial level is not high, the bulk of basic products are overhanging; the innovation system is imperfect, and the ability to innovate needs to be improved; resource constraints are further increased; the cost of production factors is rising; the pressure on safety and environmental protection is increasing, and the image of the industry is in urgent need of improvement. Although economic growth is being shifted, China is still one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and the petrochemical industry still has plenty of room for development.
In the next ten years, the opportunities for innovation and development of China's petrochemical industry will be mainly reflected in six aspects: First, China’s population will continue to grow and consumption levels will continue to increase; Second, urbanization will further advance, driving the continuous optimization and upgrading of China’s domestic demand market; and third, the process of industrialization. Accelerate the creation of new development space for chemical products; Fourth, accelerate the transformation of agricultural development methods, pesticides, fertilizers and other industries have new room for development; Fifth, comprehensively deepen the reform of the economic system, injected new impetus and vitality for the development of the petrochemical industry Sixth, global economic integration has provided China's petrochemical industry with a broader international development space.
Industry perspective
The world's petrochemical industry has undergone major changes in its competitiveness
Chairman of BASF's Executive Board of Directors Bokaci: The prospects for the future development of the global petrochemical industry are very optimistic. Because the global population is growing, market demand is also growing. In particular, the global market's health needs, agricultural demand, energy demand, material demand, and consumer demand are all growing rapidly. I firmly believe that the global petrochemical industry will grow at a faster rate than global GDP growth.
However, the future competitiveness of the world petrochemical industry is undergoing major changes. The rapid development of the shale gas revolution in North America and the petrochemical industry in the Middle East will have a huge impact on the existing world industrial structure. The advantage of shale gas resources in the United States will exist for a long time. Although China also has abundant reserves of shale gas, due to technical problems, this advantage will not appear in the medium to long term. The United States supplies a large part of its chemical products that use shale gas as raw materials to the Chinese market, which will certainly have a significant impact on China's chemical industry that uses naphtha as a raw material.
China's development of coal chemical industry is a choice that meets China's national conditions. China’s coal reserves are abundant, and chemical industries using coal as raw materials are competitive in China. However, there are several issues that need to be addressed: carbon dioxide emissions, water consumption, and public acceptance. If we can properly resolve these challenges, the prospects for China's coal chemical industry will be optimistic.
Development of Sinopec Enterprises Should Pay Attention to Strategic Issues
Li Weicheng, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of The Dow Chemical Company: The development of Sinopec enterprises must attach great importance to strategic issues. At present, the uncertainty of world economic and social development is increasing. To reduce the risk of future development, industries and enterprises must attach great importance to the development strategy. In the future, the company's development strategy should focus on three major factors: First, low-cost energy, energy is the lifeline of the world economy, energy determines the strategic position; Second, high-tech technology, we must attach great importance to employee education and research and development investment; Third, the development of market demand, In particular, we must attach great importance to the development of emerging markets and adopt different investment strategies for different markets. For example, the development of markets such as China, India, and Brazil will require different strategies.
New chemical materials are a strategic focus of the development of the global petrochemical industry. Multinational corporations attach great importance to the R&D and application of end-use consumer chemical new materials. To achieve a major change in innovation and development, the Chinese petrochemical industry must dare to move toward the end of the consumer market for chemical new materials. We must attach great importance to the development of biomass resources and energy resources. At present, 7% to 8% of global chemical products are manufactured from biomass resources. The key to the development of biomass chemicals and biomass energy lies in the supply of raw materials with cost competitive advantages.
In addition, China’s far-sighted petrochemical companies should attach great importance to the advantages of shale gas in North America, take the initiative to invest in factories in the United States, implement the “bridge strategyâ€, produce low-cost raw materials in the United States, and then engage in deep processing in China to develop high added value. Products, to win the advantages and win time for the development of China's petrochemical industry.
Following the big trend,
Welcome to China's opportunities
Bayer MaterialScience China President Miao Bole: We have taken a big trend in the formulation of our strategy. That is, the world population will continue to grow and the living standards will continue to increase; the urbanization process will deepen, especially the urbanization of China will stand out; As demand growth accelerates, pollution reduction will face severe challenges; changes in the demographic structure, intensification of aging, and an increase in the middle class will drive changes in consumption patterns.
Based on this trend, Bayer MaterialScience has incorporated new material solutions relating to greenhouse gas emission reductions, vehicle weight reduction, and fuel consumption reduction related to people's livelihood improvement and consumption upgrades into the focus of innovation. For example, the development of robotic materials, robots will play an important role in the aging society; in the field of health care, the application of polycarbonate materials can make medical devices more hygienic and durable.
In this process, the importance of the Chinese market will become more prominent. Therefore, the development of Bayer MaterialScience in China is ushering in an important turning point. We will implement China's strategic focus adjustment, that is, from the construction period to the force period. In the past 15 years, Bayer MaterialScience has been in the construction phase in China, mainly for human, material, financial and R&D. Beginning in 2015 or 2016, we will enter the launch period with a view to seeking higher efficiency and better customer service on the basis of completion of the capital construction.
Looking forward to China's expansion of the industrial synthetic ethanol market
Celanese Senior Vice President of Asian Affairs Obolli: Celanese is still full of confidence in the Chinese market. We have China's first commercial scale ethanol plant of 275,000 tons/year within the Nanjing production base. We use coal as raw material to produce synthetic ethanol, so we have a profound understanding of the field of coal chemical industry.
In the United States, the cost of producing methanol from natural gas is about US$250/tonne; in China, coal is used to produce methanol, if not using the most advanced technology and reaching the largest scale, the production cost is about US$450/tonne. Therefore, in the development of coal chemical industry in China, the cost of raw coal resources is of vital importance, and there are also feasible ways to participate in terminal fuel sales. In this regard, Celanese chose to cooperate with PetroChina.
As a fuel, Celanese believes that industrial ethanol is more competitive than methanol. For the industrial ethanol market, Celanese supports the Chinese government no longer approves the food ethanol project. Under the background of overcapacity, we hope that the Chinese government will discriminate between grain ethanol, industrial synthetic ethanol, and bioethanol, especially for industrial ethanol. Because it does not involve the issue of “competition with the people,†it should encourage exports through export rebates and other means. .
China's chemical industry has five major difficulties
Zhu Mingyue, President of the Solvay Group Greater China Region: The innovation and development of China's petrochemical industry still faces five major challenges, or five major difficulties. First, excessive fragmentation of industries and local protectionism coexist. The decentralization of enterprises results in a lack of economies of scale, and both innovation and environmental protection are constrained; while local protectionism impedes industry integration and hinders the adjustment of the entire economic structure. Second, there is an excess of structural capacity, a large number of redundant industries in low-end industries, and gaps in mid-to-high-end industries that still need to be imported. To solve the problem of overcapacity, we must not only eliminate backward production capacity, but also make important adjustments to industrial policies to break the protection of local interests. Third, pressures for safety, health, and environmental protection are increasing. China's environmental protection standards are not strict, but the implementation of the lack of detailed rules, lack of maneuverability, resulting in the policy can not be completely landed. In addition, the time from the issuance of the principled policy to the introduction of the implementing regulations was long and objectively formed a situation of “punishing†advanced enterprises and protecting backward companies. Fourth, there are still some drawbacks in scientific research and development. At present, some companies do not have the ability to invest, and some do not have the power to invest. Industry innovation cannot rely entirely on corporate consciousness, and it needs government policies to promote it. Fifth, the chemical industry has no success. Due to the poor image of the industry, the public has become distracted and the chemical industry has become more and more difficult to recruit workers.
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