According to the trend of oil prices, the rate of change of international oil prices will fall below 4% today, which means that the new round of domestic oil prices is expected to be clear. According to data from several testing organizations, the mobile change rate of the three consecutive days (Sinta, Dubai, Brent) on June 18 has dropped by 3.73% for 22 consecutive working days. On June 20th, Beijing time, the rate of change will reach -4. %.
On the London ICE European Futures Exchange, the Brent crude oil futures price for August delivery fell 1.61 cents to close at 96 US dollars per barrel, down 1.6%. In the second quarter, New York oil prices fell by 19%, and so far this year has fallen by 16%.
According to the NDRC regulations, a rate of change of 4% is only one of the conditions for price adjustment. The price adjustment interval is 22 days. Therefore, even if the rate of change in international oil prices continues to fall, it is necessary to wait until July 11th for oil prices to be truly lowered. Previously, on May 10 and June 9, domestic refined oil prices have been lowered twice.
Refining mill operating rate is low
As domestic oil prices may be lowered again, coupled with the current slowdown in economic growth, domestic demand has decreased, domestic refined oil market sales are not prosperous, and a large amount of inventory has also caused the processing volume of refineries to decline.
According to news from Axis Energy, due to the expected increase in refined oil products in early July, Sinopec has recently cut its crude oil processing capacity in June by 500,000 tons to 17.4 million tons. In June, Sinopec processed 580,000 tons of crude oil per day, down 4.3% from the previous month.
In addition, a few days ago, Sinopec Sales Company issued an urgent notice requesting companies to reduce all inventory, and each sales company will stop all external mining that can be stopped and reduce inventory pressure. The agency quoted insiders of the refinery as an analysis that if the refined oil market remained weak in the third quarter, it may continue to reduce production.
Zhuo Chuang Resources also showed that as of June 14, the operating rate of Petrochemical Shuangxiong's refineries was 67.9%, down 1.26% from the end of May, and once again refreshed the year's low.
â– Analysis
The market downturn "oil shortage" is difficult
In the past years, there have been cases of “oil shortage†shortly after the price reduction of refined oil products. Many institutional analysts believe that the current reduced operating rate of refineries will not bring oil shortages as in previous years.
The data released by the National Development and Reform Commission recently showed that refined oil inventories fell by 60,000 tons at the end of April, but increased by 2.28 million tons compared with the same period of last year, indicating weak demand.
Since March, the sales of the two major companies in various cities have been slow to ship, and the sales plan has been continuously undervalued. The petrochemical duo has to reduce monthly sales. Anxun Energy analysts said that the completion rate of wholesale sales of PetroChina and Sinopec in mid-June was only about 30% of the original sales plan.
Market participants believe that the new price cuts are expected to occur again, and the gasoline fundamentals are relatively good, but the seller is still reducing inventory as much as possible. The diesel market is weak and the sluggish economic environment has made the overall domestic demand very low.
â– Related
Can a three-day losing streak give birth to a new pricing mechanism?
The previous two domestic oil prices were lowered, and the new pricing mechanism was twice defeated. If the domestic oil price "three consecutive losses" in July, the pricing mechanism is still very concerned about the market.
Since 2009, domestic oil price adjustments have risen by 12 to 5 points. The National Development and Reform Commission also said that the international oil price will be a good time to introduce. The previous two oil price cuts have also reflected problems. Although the rate of change has reached -4%, the downward adjustment conditions have been met, but the downward adjustment is not timely due to the 22-day price adjustment period.
Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan believes that the current low oil prices provide better conditions for the introduction of the new mechanism. However, some analysts believe that because the government said that the price increase was not in place, the current direct gap between domestic refined oil prices and international oil prices is still quite different, and the possibility of launching in the short term is not large.
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