——Analysis of the economic warming process in chemical industry (I)
According to the editors' experience of the international financial crisis, the operation of the petroleum and chemical industries has started to show a warming up, and the industry economy has entered a good track. However, how to solve the problem of excess capacity, unreasonable structure, and extensive growth mode exposed in the crisis in the petrochemical industry, as well as the realization of China's commitment to the greenhouse gas emission action target, the country's transformation of development methods and the development of low-carbon economy requirements for the industry this year What will happen in the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is an important issue facing the development of the entire industry in the new year, and it has also attracted the attention of the industry. Starting from today, this newspaper has opened a column entitled “Transferring the structure of production, economics, perspective, structure, and transformationâ€, and will start a series of reports centering on the theme of adjusting the structure of the industry and changing the mode of development.
Under the support of the national package of policies, combined with the implementation of the ten major industry adjustment and revitalization plans, the output value and economic efficiency of the China's petrochemical industry began to move upward in 2009, and the industry's performance has returned to a good one. This trend was confirmed in the 2009 annual report of the petrochemical industry economy. However, because the petrochemical industry is involved in a long industrial chain and the sub-sectors are in different locations, the rate of recovery is also different. Overall, the performance of petrochemical sub-sectors in 2009 was varied.
The main downstream industries of the petrochemical industry are textiles, real estate, automobiles, and agriculture. Among them, textiles and automobiles belong to the consumer goods industry. Demand transmission is relatively fast. Analysts pointed out that in the financial crisis, the industries that are closer to consumer terminals will pick up faster.
Li Guohong, an analyst at Galaxy Securities' petrochemical industry, told reporters that in the year of 2009, the chemical industry, dominated by the production of basic raw materials, has been divided by the boom cycle and supply and demand. The China National Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association's annual economic report on the analysis of the national oil and chemical industry in 2009 and the outlook for 2010 has also shown that the special chemicals industry in 2009 had an output value of 963.32 billion yuan and a growth rate of 16.8%. It ranks first in the petrochemical sub-sectors; the output value of the composites industry ranks third.
Taking dyes and auxiliaries as an example, Li Guohong analyzed that as a branch of specialty chemicals, dyes and additives are at the end of the petrochemical industry chain and are closer to the final consumption end than other upstream chemical products, and are most affected by the recovery of downstream demand. fast. Therefore, driven by the recovery of exports, the dyes and auxiliaries industry has shown a trend of recovery earlier than other upstream petrochemical sub-sectors. In 2009, it showed strong growth potential. In particular, high-end varieties represented by disperse dyes showed higher growth than other varieties. .
The performance of the chemical fiber industry in 2009 was also very prominent, and it entered the recovery track earlier. The recovery of textiles and garments will inevitably drive the demand for downstream products, the most important of which are textile raw materials such as chemical fiber and textile-related chemicals. It is understood that in 2009 relying on the growth of domestic demand in the downstream textile and apparel industry, the chemical fiber industry maintained a relatively high operating rate, especially viscose staple fiber and spandex to maintain full capacity operation. Statistics show that in 2009, the prices of chemical fiber products showed an upward trend, in which viscose fibers entered the high boom cycle, the price rose by 65% ​​year-on-year, and polyester staple fiber rose by 32%. The industry judges that in 2010 China's textile and garment export growth rate will be 10% to 15%, and external demand will drive viscose staple fiber and spandex into a new round of business cycle.
It is not difficult for people to find that in 2009, those enterprises that had mastered core technologies, strong innovation capabilities, products that were close to the market, and focused on energy conservation and environmental protection showed strong vitality in the financial crisis. Li Guohong pointed out that the downstream recovery has led to the recovery of the end sub-sectors of the petrochemical industry chain, such as fine chemicals and new materials industries with core competitiveness. This is also confirmed by the 2009 annual economic report of the petrochemical industry. The report believes that in 2009, the proportion of high-tech and high value-added specialty chemicals and synthetic materials industries in the petrochemical industry increased rapidly, becoming the vanguard of the rapid development of the industry.
Referring to new chemical materials, the industry generally commented that due to the development of new chemical materials, the recovery rate in the early stages of economic recovery was faster than other industries. Silicone is a new chemical material widely used in all walks of life. Its applications include construction, real estate, electrical and electronics, etc. Silicone rubber and silicon resin are the main products in the downstream. According to the data, silicon rubber accounts for more than 70% of the demand for silicones. In 2009, with the implementation of building energy conservation policies and encouraging the implementation of automotive consumer electronics policies, the market demand for downstream products has increased substantially, and organic silicon has gained good development opportunities.
When assessing the performance of the polyurethane industry, Zhang Jie, the Secretary-General of the China Polyurethane Industry Association, summed it up with “One Stand Outâ€. According to Zhang Jie, as of the end of 2009, the annual polyurethane consumption exceeded 5 million tons, and the output and prices of major raw materials in the industry have returned to the level before the financial crisis.
In 2009, polyurethane products demonstrated their capabilities in the downstream market with their excellent energy-saving and environmental-friendly properties. On the one hand, as a heat-insulating material, polyurethane has formed a large-scale application in solar water heaters, solar heating systems, and solar refrigeration systems. In 2009, the “solar to the countryside†policy had a huge impact on the demand of the solar energy industry. Affected by this, in 2009, the growth rate of polyurethane in the solar energy industry reached 30%. On the other hand, polyurethane rigid foam can be used as a building external wall insulation layer, and the market prospect is broad. Although there are two popular high-end insulation materials, namely polystyrene foam and polyurethane rigid foam, on the market, and polyurethane rigid foam is not advantageous in terms of cost, the advantages of polyurethane rigid foam in terms of thermal insulation performance still make it occupy a considerable market. Share. The boom in the real estate industry in 2009 directly led to the improvement of the polyurethane industry. Another major use of polyurethane foam is the production of refrigerators, freezers and other electrical box insulation. Under the “home appliances to the countryside†policy, the polyurethane industry also achieved great development. Industry insiders anticipate that policy support for expanding the internal and external demand market will bring more new markets and new opportunities for the polyurethane industry in 2010.
In addition, the output of China's soft furniture recovered significantly in the second half of 2009. The demand for soft polyurethane for soft furniture such as sofas and mattresses increased. Furthermore, the export of furniture was gradually recovering, which led to a rapid increase in demand for TDI market.
According to the editors' experience of the international financial crisis, the operation of the petroleum and chemical industries has started to show a warming up, and the industry economy has entered a good track. However, how to solve the problem of excess capacity, unreasonable structure, and extensive growth mode exposed in the crisis in the petrochemical industry, as well as the realization of China's commitment to the greenhouse gas emission action target, the country's transformation of development methods and the development of low-carbon economy requirements for the industry this year What will happen in the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is an important issue facing the development of the entire industry in the new year, and it has also attracted the attention of the industry. Starting from today, this newspaper has opened a column entitled “Transferring the structure of production, economics, perspective, structure, and transformationâ€, and will start a series of reports centering on the theme of adjusting the structure of the industry and changing the mode of development.
Under the support of the national package of policies, combined with the implementation of the ten major industry adjustment and revitalization plans, the output value and economic efficiency of the China's petrochemical industry began to move upward in 2009, and the industry's performance has returned to a good one. This trend was confirmed in the 2009 annual report of the petrochemical industry economy. However, because the petrochemical industry is involved in a long industrial chain and the sub-sectors are in different locations, the rate of recovery is also different. Overall, the performance of petrochemical sub-sectors in 2009 was varied.
The main downstream industries of the petrochemical industry are textiles, real estate, automobiles, and agriculture. Among them, textiles and automobiles belong to the consumer goods industry. Demand transmission is relatively fast. Analysts pointed out that in the financial crisis, the industries that are closer to consumer terminals will pick up faster.
Li Guohong, an analyst at Galaxy Securities' petrochemical industry, told reporters that in the year of 2009, the chemical industry, dominated by the production of basic raw materials, has been divided by the boom cycle and supply and demand. The China National Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association's annual economic report on the analysis of the national oil and chemical industry in 2009 and the outlook for 2010 has also shown that the special chemicals industry in 2009 had an output value of 963.32 billion yuan and a growth rate of 16.8%. It ranks first in the petrochemical sub-sectors; the output value of the composites industry ranks third.
Taking dyes and auxiliaries as an example, Li Guohong analyzed that as a branch of specialty chemicals, dyes and additives are at the end of the petrochemical industry chain and are closer to the final consumption end than other upstream chemical products, and are most affected by the recovery of downstream demand. fast. Therefore, driven by the recovery of exports, the dyes and auxiliaries industry has shown a trend of recovery earlier than other upstream petrochemical sub-sectors. In 2009, it showed strong growth potential. In particular, high-end varieties represented by disperse dyes showed higher growth than other varieties. .
The performance of the chemical fiber industry in 2009 was also very prominent, and it entered the recovery track earlier. The recovery of textiles and garments will inevitably drive the demand for downstream products, the most important of which are textile raw materials such as chemical fiber and textile-related chemicals. It is understood that in 2009 relying on the growth of domestic demand in the downstream textile and apparel industry, the chemical fiber industry maintained a relatively high operating rate, especially viscose staple fiber and spandex to maintain full capacity operation. Statistics show that in 2009, the prices of chemical fiber products showed an upward trend, in which viscose fibers entered the high boom cycle, the price rose by 65% ​​year-on-year, and polyester staple fiber rose by 32%. The industry judges that in 2010 China's textile and garment export growth rate will be 10% to 15%, and external demand will drive viscose staple fiber and spandex into a new round of business cycle.
It is not difficult for people to find that in 2009, those enterprises that had mastered core technologies, strong innovation capabilities, products that were close to the market, and focused on energy conservation and environmental protection showed strong vitality in the financial crisis. Li Guohong pointed out that the downstream recovery has led to the recovery of the end sub-sectors of the petrochemical industry chain, such as fine chemicals and new materials industries with core competitiveness. This is also confirmed by the 2009 annual economic report of the petrochemical industry. The report believes that in 2009, the proportion of high-tech and high value-added specialty chemicals and synthetic materials industries in the petrochemical industry increased rapidly, becoming the vanguard of the rapid development of the industry.
Referring to new chemical materials, the industry generally commented that due to the development of new chemical materials, the recovery rate in the early stages of economic recovery was faster than other industries. Silicone is a new chemical material widely used in all walks of life. Its applications include construction, real estate, electrical and electronics, etc. Silicone rubber and silicon resin are the main products in the downstream. According to the data, silicon rubber accounts for more than 70% of the demand for silicones. In 2009, with the implementation of building energy conservation policies and encouraging the implementation of automotive consumer electronics policies, the market demand for downstream products has increased substantially, and organic silicon has gained good development opportunities.
When assessing the performance of the polyurethane industry, Zhang Jie, the Secretary-General of the China Polyurethane Industry Association, summed it up with “One Stand Outâ€. According to Zhang Jie, as of the end of 2009, the annual polyurethane consumption exceeded 5 million tons, and the output and prices of major raw materials in the industry have returned to the level before the financial crisis.
In 2009, polyurethane products demonstrated their capabilities in the downstream market with their excellent energy-saving and environmental-friendly properties. On the one hand, as a heat-insulating material, polyurethane has formed a large-scale application in solar water heaters, solar heating systems, and solar refrigeration systems. In 2009, the “solar to the countryside†policy had a huge impact on the demand of the solar energy industry. Affected by this, in 2009, the growth rate of polyurethane in the solar energy industry reached 30%. On the other hand, polyurethane rigid foam can be used as a building external wall insulation layer, and the market prospect is broad. Although there are two popular high-end insulation materials, namely polystyrene foam and polyurethane rigid foam, on the market, and polyurethane rigid foam is not advantageous in terms of cost, the advantages of polyurethane rigid foam in terms of thermal insulation performance still make it occupy a considerable market. Share. The boom in the real estate industry in 2009 directly led to the improvement of the polyurethane industry. Another major use of polyurethane foam is the production of refrigerators, freezers and other electrical box insulation. Under the “home appliances to the countryside†policy, the polyurethane industry also achieved great development. Industry insiders anticipate that policy support for expanding the internal and external demand market will bring more new markets and new opportunities for the polyurethane industry in 2010.
In addition, the output of China's soft furniture recovered significantly in the second half of 2009. The demand for soft polyurethane for soft furniture such as sofas and mattresses increased. Furthermore, the export of furniture was gradually recovering, which led to a rapid increase in demand for TDI market.
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