Industry Overview
In April 2009, the engine market inherited a good start at the beginning of 2009. Both the production and sales and sales have increased in different degrees. This has a lot to do with the recovery of the auto vehicle market this year. For four consecutive months, China’s auto production and sales volume has maintained a steady growth trend. By April of this year, the production and sales of vehicles had achieved a remarkable achievement of 1.15 million units. On this basis, the steady growth of the engine is a matter of course.
Overall monthly engine production and sales trend
In April this year, the engine output was 1,074,000 units, a slight increase from March. Compared with the output of 870,000 units in April 2008, there was an increase of up to 23.4%. In 2009, with the introduction of a series of policies to stimulate consumer spending, especially for the introduction of favorable policies such as car subsidy, the vehicle market ushered in the peak of growth. Engine manufacturers saw hope and increased in a timely manner. In order to be able to change the downturn of 2008 in the new year and achieve good results. The sluggishness of the engine market in 2008 made it possible to increase the year-on-year growth rate in 2009.
The Chinese auto market in 2009 has achieved very good results. It has become the focus of attention in the world when the global auto market is bleak. Sales volume ranks first in the world for four consecutive months. In particular, in April of this year, China’s car sales were more than 50,000 vehicles higher than the combined sales of the United States and Japan. Under such market conditions, the engine market is also in good shape. Its sales volume has reached 1.147 million units for the first time since 2008, an increase of 14.88% from the previous quarter and an increase of 35% year-on-year. Such achievements are mainly due to the prosperity of the entire vehicle market, and the entire vehicle market will continue to show a trend of growth due to the recovery of the Chinese economy, the government’s incentive to implement the car purchase policy, and the Shanghai Auto Show’s stimulus to consumption. The market's production and sales will continue to grow.
Monthly production and sales trend of diesel engines
Subdivided into the diesel engine market, its output and sales volume have dropped slightly. In April of this year, the output of diesel engines in China was 313,700 units, a decrease of 5.53% from the previous period; the sales volume was 32.50 million units, a decrease of 3.78% month-on-month, and the output and sales volume were basically the same. This trend is exactly in line with the commercial vehicle market. In April 2009, the output of commercial vehicles in China was 339,000 units, which was a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month and the sales volume was 322,000 units, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous period. The author believes that both commercial vehicles and diesel engines will experience a slight decline at the same time. The reason is the same. As China's auto consumption stimulus policies mainly target the passenger vehicle market, for the first quarter of 2009, both commercial vehicle manufacturers and diesel engine manufacturers It is considered as an accidental phenomenon. This growth cannot last for a long time. Therefore, it has reduced production to resist the slump in the new round of markets. From the perspective of actual market sales, it is necessary for suppliers to reduce production.
Compared with April last year, the sales of diesel engines in April this year increased by 23.24% year-on-year, and the sales in February and March of this year were all higher than those of the same period of last year. This shows that the overall diesel engine market is better than 08 this year, indicating that 09 The diesel engine market in 2008 will change the depressing situation in 2008. In May and the second half of the year, the diesel engine market will generally be better than in 2008.
Monthly production and sales trend of gasoline engine
Compared with diesel engines, gasoline engine shopping malls are still growing steadily. In April, the output was approximately 760,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; the sales volume was 822,000 units, an increase of 24.4% from the previous period, and the output was lower than the sales volume. The author believes that such a situation arises because, first of all, the manufacturers’ lack of confidence in the engine market and the auto market is not very optimistic about the auto consumption market in the second quarter of 2009; secondly, from the previous years, the engine market will appear in March. The peak of production and sales, followed by April will enter the trough period. Based on the above two reasons, the conservative estimate of engine sales for April sales is understandable.
Similar to diesel engines, sales of gasoline engines in February, March and April of this year were all higher than the same period of last year, which also indicates that the overall situation of the gasoline engine market is better than last year. Specifically, the reasons are as follows: 1. The overall automobile market has started to pick up from the beginning of 2009, which has given manufacturers and consumers a lot of confidence, and has also driven the growth of the same trend in the engine market. 2. Passenger cars equipped with petrol engines have benefited from a series of policies introduced by the government this year. From the standpoint of the micro-offer market alone, it enjoys two preferential policies for car-to-country policies and purchase tax subsidies. Sales volume has increased substantially. Wuling Light (parameter configuration), Hafei public opinion, Changan Star and other mini-car sales have peaked.
Engine market concentration
The industry concentration of diesel engines in China in 2009 was consistent with that in 2008, showing a downward trend. From the first four months of 2009 alone, the top five market share in the diesel engine market has dropped from 92% to 89%, while the market share of the top eight and top ten from the original 86% and 71% respectively. The drop was 82% and 68%. This shows that the competition in the diesel engine market is intensifying, and the monopoly position of large enterprises is gradually weakening. The diesel engine production technology of small enterprises is gradually increasing, and it is also increasingly entering the market, occupying more and more market share. However, compared with gasoline engines, the market concentration of diesel engines is still very high.
The concentration of gasoline engines is far lower than that of diesel engines. The market share of the top ten manufacturers is only about 40%. This is mainly due to the lower technical barriers to gasoline engines, such as small gasoline engines. Their production technology is not as complicated as diesel engines, and market entry is relatively easy. Therefore, there are many small and medium-sized enterprises among gasoline engine manufacturers. In addition, many of the domestic gasoline engine suppliers are owned by the OEM or the OEM itself, and there are a large number of domestic autos (especially passenger vehicles). This objectively causes the gasoline engine industry to be uneven and fiercely competitive. Judging from the monthly trend, the market concentration in the first four months of this year has basically kept declining, which shows that the gasoline engine market, like diesel engines, is becoming more and more fierce, and the monopoly of large companies is gradually disintegrating.
However, compared with 2008, the market concentration of gasoline engines in 2009 is rising. I think this is because many unskilled small and medium-sized enterprises have bankrupted after experiencing the sluggish auto industry in 2008. Market share has naturally increased. However, in the long run, once the financial crisis has passed, the auto market will return to prosperity, while the competition in the engine market will become more intense and the market concentration will continue to decline.
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Diesel Engine Production and Sales (Number of Units)
From the perspective of the production and sales volume of major diesel engine manufacturers in April, some important companies have decreased compared with March. From the production point of view, the production volume of most companies has increased by a wide margin compared with the previous month. This shows that the diesel engine manufacturers still have an optimistic attitude towards the engine market and automobile market in April.
From the sales point of view, many important production companies are not optimistic about the sales of engines in April, and many companies have seen a large decline. Including Yuchai (down 10.17% from the previous quarter), Yunnei (21.88% from the previous quarter), Weichai (from 19.16% from the previous quarter), China National Heavy Duty Truck (from 32.15% from the previous quarter), and Jiangling Motor (from 32.23% from the previous quarter). Significantly lower, while sales of FAW Group (up 25.18% MoM), Dongfeng Chaochai (up 53.87% MoM), Shanghai Shangchai (140.78% MoM) and Jianghuai Auto (121.55% MoM Shanghai) are larger. Magnitude of growth.
The decline in sales volume explains well the declining concentration of the diesel engine industry. Due to the entry of SMEs and the intensified competition, the sales of large enterprises have been affected to varying degrees. However, compared with the same period of last year, sales of most companies still maintained a substantial increase, and the overall situation was much better than the same period in 2008, which effectively proved the warming of the auto market.
Gasoline Engine Production and Sales (Number of Units)
The production of gasoline engines in April this year, like that of diesel engines, has maintained a growth trend. Compared with March, the output of most key production companies has increased significantly. The gasoline engine market also began to improve, and manufacturers’ confidence gradually recovered. Compared with the same period of last year, the top ten manufacturers all showed a significant increase. On the contrary, the enterprises ranked behind had a significant decline, indicating that the concentration of the gasoline industry was overall reduced, many of which were produced last year. Small companies have increased their productivity this year and market competition has intensified.
The sales of gasoline engines in April were also encouraging. The sales volume of key manufacturing companies showed a significant increase compared with the previous month, which was a greater increase than the same period of last year. Wuling Liuji became the "biggest" in the gasoline engine sales industry. Changan and FAW-Volkswagen still maintained the top three positions among gasoline engine manufacturers. Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd. increased by 55.75% year-on-year, with 46,800 units ranking fourth. . The total sales volume of the top ten manufacturing companies is 4.963 billion, accounting for 60% of the total gasoline engine sales in April, and the industry concentration is still relatively large.
Diesel engine production and sales (power)
In April 2009, the total output of diesel engines in China was 3,156,300 kilowatts, a decrease of 8.38% from the previous month, which was basically the same as the production volume in the same period of last year. Yuchai is still the company with the highest total power, far ahead of second place, down 11% from the previous month, and second place Weichai also saw a 15.7% decline.
From the sales point of view, the total sales of diesel engines this month was 32.4241 million kilowatts, a decrease of 4.02% from the previous month. The Yuchai is 8.995 million kilowatts, accounting for 27.8% of the total. Regardless of the output or the sales volume, Yuchai is far ahead of the second place in terms of the number of units or the power, and it ranks as the “overlord†status in China’s diesel engine production enterprises.
Gasoline engine production and sales (power)
In April, the total production of gasoline engines was 5,651,100 kilowatts, an increase of 6.82% compared with the previous period, an increase of 17.04% over the same period of last year. From the output map of the gasoline engine company (below), the production capacity of China's gasoline engine manufacturers is not much different and the competition is fierce. The total sales in April was 59,465,600 kilowatts, an increase of 18.1% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 27.92, a larger increase.
Among the many companies, Changan and FAW-Volkswagen are the largest market share in terms of power. Among them, FAW-Volkswagen ranked first in the industry with 4.63 million kilowatts of production and sales, while Chang’an Group ranked second in the industry with 4.52 million kilowatts of output. In addition, its annual production growth also hit an industry-wide maximum.
The fastest-growing sales volume was Dongfeng Honda. Although its output was only 1.688 million kilowatts in April, its sales increased by more than 70% year-on-year, and its growth rate was also more than 60% compared with the previous period. Sales volume reached 2.89 million kilowatts.
May sales forecast
Judging from the monthly sales of the entire vehicle market over the years, after peaking in March, sales will gradually decline from April. Although accidental sales unexpectedly exceeded March in April this year, seasonal fluctuations in sales will continue to exist. It can be expected that sales in May will start to decline from the previous month. With the further implementation of the purchase tax and automobile-to-country policies, the increase in sales of economic cars, mini-vehicles, and light trucks will gradually narrow, which will also affect car sales in May and beyond. However, such a contraction and decline will gradually warm up the economy, the decline will not be great. It is expected that the sales volume in May will decline slightly, but due to the lower sales volume in the same period of last year, the year-on-year increase in May of this year will be larger, and it is expected that the sales volume will fall back to about 1 million vehicles. The production and sales volume of the engine is closely related to the entire vehicle. Therefore, the domestic engine production and sales in May will also be slightly reduced from the previous month.
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