On June 23, Baosteel, China's largest steel company, and Rio Tinto, an Australian iron ore supplier, agreed to increase the price of imported iron ore imported from China in 2008 by 79.88%-96.5%. The already high CPI (residential consumer price) trend seems to add pressure.
However, Wang Haifeng, director of the International Economics Research Office of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, determined that the price of iron ore imported from Brazil in February this year is also rising. As a result, iron ore prices have risen and there has been limited transmission of CPI.
Some analysts believe that the short-term results of the iron ore price negotiations will have little change in the future CPI. This is because the price increase this time is only a continuation of the rise in Brazilian iron ore import prices since the beginning of the year.
Xu Zhongbo, general manager of Beijing Metac Consulting, told reporters that taking into account that this negotiation is mainly related to the FOB price, Australia and China are closer than Brazil, the final CIF of imported iron ore from Australia and imports from Brazil. The price is virtually the same, and the impact on prices is not great.
According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national CPI rose by 7.7% in May 2008, which was the first time since the beginning of the year from February to February to fall below 8%. Some people believe that due to the rise in the ex-factory prices of industrial products that exceed the consumer price, and the latest round of price increases, there is still greater pressure on CPI inflation in the future.
However, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, the weight of refined oil products in the CPI is only about 0.5%, and the future decline in food prices will continue to push down the inflation rate in June. The increase in refined oil prices should not change the decline in inflation rate. trend. Since iron ore has adjusted its import prices since the beginning of this year, and iron and steel are market prices, this time the price of iron ore is raised, and the impact on CPI in the short term is even more limited.
Wang Haifeng estimates that since the rise of energy and resource prices in the past, due to adjustments in the industrial structure, the price pressure has been absorbed, so in fact the current economic structure has strong absorption and carrying capacity for oil and raw material prices, and has limited impact on prices. .
Xu Zhongbo, for example, said that steel accounts for about 600-1,000 yuan per square meter in real estate development, and the proportion of housing prices is very low. The price of steel products has little impact on real estate.
According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Industry Association, since 2008, the growth rate of iron and steel production in the entire industry has slowed down, domestic iron ore production has increased substantially, and there has been a surplus after satisfying domestic production requirements for blast furnace production. "In this case, blindly importing iron ore may cause losses to the company."
According to the customs express report, from January to May, 192.35 million tons of iron ore was imported, a year-on-year increase of 19.55%. According to an average of 1,265,500 tons of imported iron ore per day from January to May, the total annual import volume will increase by 79 million tons compared with 2007, far exceeding the annual demand for imported iron ore from steel production. In particular, 38.91 million tons of iron ore was imported in May, an increase of 40.98% year-on-year. The Iron and Steel Industry Association warned that the rapid import of iron ore, "the supply and demand situation of iron ore with the domestic market is completely deviated from, and should be a cause for great concern."
However, Wang Haifeng, director of the International Economics Research Office of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, determined that the price of iron ore imported from Brazil in February this year is also rising. As a result, iron ore prices have risen and there has been limited transmission of CPI.
Some analysts believe that the short-term results of the iron ore price negotiations will have little change in the future CPI. This is because the price increase this time is only a continuation of the rise in Brazilian iron ore import prices since the beginning of the year.
Xu Zhongbo, general manager of Beijing Metac Consulting, told reporters that taking into account that this negotiation is mainly related to the FOB price, Australia and China are closer than Brazil, the final CIF of imported iron ore from Australia and imports from Brazil. The price is virtually the same, and the impact on prices is not great.
According to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national CPI rose by 7.7% in May 2008, which was the first time since the beginning of the year from February to February to fall below 8%. Some people believe that due to the rise in the ex-factory prices of industrial products that exceed the consumer price, and the latest round of price increases, there is still greater pressure on CPI inflation in the future.
However, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, the weight of refined oil products in the CPI is only about 0.5%, and the future decline in food prices will continue to push down the inflation rate in June. The increase in refined oil prices should not change the decline in inflation rate. trend. Since iron ore has adjusted its import prices since the beginning of this year, and iron and steel are market prices, this time the price of iron ore is raised, and the impact on CPI in the short term is even more limited.
Wang Haifeng estimates that since the rise of energy and resource prices in the past, due to adjustments in the industrial structure, the price pressure has been absorbed, so in fact the current economic structure has strong absorption and carrying capacity for oil and raw material prices, and has limited impact on prices. .
Xu Zhongbo, for example, said that steel accounts for about 600-1,000 yuan per square meter in real estate development, and the proportion of housing prices is very low. The price of steel products has little impact on real estate.
According to the monitoring of the Iron and Steel Industry Association, since 2008, the growth rate of iron and steel production in the entire industry has slowed down, domestic iron ore production has increased substantially, and there has been a surplus after satisfying domestic production requirements for blast furnace production. "In this case, blindly importing iron ore may cause losses to the company."
According to the customs express report, from January to May, 192.35 million tons of iron ore was imported, a year-on-year increase of 19.55%. According to an average of 1,265,500 tons of imported iron ore per day from January to May, the total annual import volume will increase by 79 million tons compared with 2007, far exceeding the annual demand for imported iron ore from steel production. In particular, 38.91 million tons of iron ore was imported in May, an increase of 40.98% year-on-year. The Iron and Steel Industry Association warned that the rapid import of iron ore, "the supply and demand situation of iron ore with the domestic market is completely deviated from, and should be a cause for great concern."
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