News Background At present, the formation mechanism of refined oil prices in the domestic markets of various countries is mainly the formation of market competition prices and national pricing. The process of marketization of oil prices in South Korea is similar to that of China. It has experienced three stages: government pricing, integration with the international market, and price liberalization. Beginning in 1994, it is in line with international market prices, first establishing a linkage mechanism with crude oil prices in the international market, and then establishing a linkage mechanism with refined oil prices in the international market. And in 1997, the oil price was completely market-oriented. Japan’s oil prices were strictly controlled by the government before 1996. After 1996, the oil market gradually opened up. At present, refined oil prices are mainly formed by market competition. The Japanese government no longer takes administrative measures to control market prices.
Despite the same monopoly industries, CNPC and Sinopec did not enter the investment recommendation list of JP Morgan China’s securities market chairman Li Jing like CNOOC. CNOOC’s attraction to Li Jing is as a resource company. CNOOC has its own oil. The source is not affected by price regulation. In the view of Li Jing, “Refining business of PetroChina and Sinopec has been under great pressure for some time recently. In the case of oil prices of 110 bucks a barrel, the related business is unlikely to be profitable.†Of course, Li Jing also looks The government has issued some policies to compensate for some losses of Sinopec and PetroChina, and Li Jing analyzed that “policies will have a good impact on the profitability of enterprises after April.†But in the long run, the policy supports the refiners. Given the limited confidence given to investors, Li Jing still believes that “the price of crude oil is in line with international standards, while refined oil prices are still limited by the government’s restrictions on the profitability of refineries.â€
Just a few days ago, Jiang Jiemin, chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation, said that the current domestic refined oil price is very different from that of the international market. The domestic oil refining losses are not due to refinery management issues, but are caused by unreasonable prices. When the international oil price reached 120 US dollars, the weighted average price of domestic refined oil was only 68 US dollars, which was equivalent to nearly 1/2 of the international oil price. However, in the long run, the marketization of refined oil prices is still a trend.
Common expectations for price marketization On April 19, the two major domestic oil and gas giants, PetroChina and Sinopec, revealed that the central government has provided appropriate subsidies for losses resulting from the processing of imported crude oil from April 1st. Liquidation. Unlike the VAT rebates, the Ministry of Finance does not provide an end date for this two-group support policy.
Earlier, the Ministry of Finance spent 12.3 billion yuan to subsidize Sinopec’s loss in the refining sector. On April 15, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement that from April 1, 2008 to June 30, 2008, China will import 500,000 tons of gasoline, 1 million tons of diesel oil, and 500,000 tons of gasoline imported by Sinopec, 1.5 million tons of diesel oil will be returned after the first-ever import VAT. According to preliminary calculations, PetroChina and Sinopec Corp. could reduce taxes by 1.87 billion yuan and 2.51 billion yuan respectively, totaling about 4.4 billion yuan.
Fiscal subsidies given to refiners are not optimistic about the two major groups, saying that this does not fundamentally solve the problem of losses. The recent annual report issued by China National Petroleum Corporation shows that the company's refining and sales segment suffered a loss of 20.68 billion yuan in 2007; Sinopec's refining business suffered a loss of 13.6 billion yuan last year. On April 21st, an analysis report released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association’s “Economic Performance of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry in the First Quarter†showed that in the first quarter, the refining industry had a loss of RMB23.924 billion, and the loss was high for the first time.
Fang Lei, an analyst at Industrial Securities, took an account: Sinopec processed 70% of its crude oil each year from imports, with imports exceeding 113 million tons and China Petroleum purchasing 16.7 million tons of crude oil. Assuming that 50% of the losses incurred by the company’s imported crude oil can be financed, the Sinopec will receive financial subsidies of 8.5 billion to 9 billion yuan per quarter in the absence of a crude oil price assumption of 100 US dollars/barrel and current product oil prices. China National Petroleum Corporation is equivalent to subsidies of about 900 million yuan.
Jiang Jiemin said that the current oil refining losses must be undertaken by CNPC. “This is a social responsibility,†but he also mentioned that “the trend of price marketization has not changed.â€
The central government's series of cash subsidies and tax incentives for PetroChina and Sinopec have actually made many local oil refining companies "jealous", and huge financial subsidies unrelated to them have dampened the production enthusiasm of local oil refiners. Due to the rise in international oil prices, serious losses in ground refining and extremely low production enthusiasm, the average operating rate of atmospheric and vacuum installations has remained at the lowest level in recent years by 20% to 25%, and production of gasoline and diesel oil has also shrunk dramatically. This has become an important reason for the tight supply in some regions of the country. one.
At present, there are a total of 82 companies in the country. According to statistics, the supply of diesel for local refining accounts for 10% to 15% of domestic supply, and the supply of gasoline accounts for 5% to 10% of the country's total.
Failure of the price transmission mechanism A leader of the National Development and Reform Commission stated at an open conference that “When reporters see me, they must chase each other to ask when oil prices can be connected.†He does not care about people’s concerns. Give an accurate timeline. However, he said that the current oil price is not conducive to leveraging prices and guide consumers to choose high-efficiency small-displacement vehicles. "Last year, the growth of small-displacement vehicles was lower than the overall increase in car sales."
From April’s auto sales figures, it’s not hard to find that SUVs known as “oil tigers†are thriving in the overall slowdown in auto market growth. Sales of domestic SUVs have soared by 400 h in the first four months of the year compared with the same period last year. The above is far higher than the growth rate of passenger cars in the same period. At the same time, the import volume of luxury SUVs, large-displacement luxury sedans, and sports cars also increased significantly. China’s high-fuel-consuming, large-displacement car market presents a scene of “prosperityâ€.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that as more and more Chinese consumers purchase cars, by 2030, 80% of China’s oil consumption will depend on imports. In 2007, a total of 730,200 vehicles were sold with a displacement of less than 1.3L, accounting for 11.60% of the total sales of cars. The market share decreased by 3.7% compared with the previous year. The vehicle with a displacement of less than 1.0L sold only 251,700 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%.
It should be noted that oil prices are an incentive for Chinese companies to increase energy efficiency and energy conservation, and encourage Chinese residents to seek a healthier lifestyle, thus promoting the establishment of a conservation-oriented society as an important economic tool. Japan organically combines oil price reform with economic restructuring and corporate competitiveness. The Japanese economy has not only been washed away by the oil crisis, but has used this as an opportunity to promote the upgrading of domestic industries and nurtured such industries as Toyota Motors and Toshiba Electronics. With energy conservation and environmental protection, and large globally competitive companies, Japan has also become one of the most energy-saving countries in the world. The experience among them deserves our reference.
Japan is a country with poor oil resources. The domestic production of crude oil accounts for only 0.3% of the total supply. In order to cope with the high oil prices and possible future oil crisis, the Japanese government gradually loosened oil control on the one hand to ensure orderly and smooth transfer of oil price pressures to enterprises and consumers, making oil prices become a pressing force for companies to upgrade their technologies and carry out energy conservation and consumption reduction. The basic economic mechanism for enhancing consumers' awareness of saving is on the other hand, they are determined to adjust the domestic industrial structure, suppress and eliminate high-energy-consuming industries, formulate stringent energy-saving and environmental protection standards, and guide and force companies to reduce energy consumption.
The oil price adjustment needs to comprehensively consider that the price adjustment of domestic refined oil cannot keep up with the increase in international market prices. In the long run, it is necessary to maintain the supply of the market to rationalize prices, that is, to make producers and operators profitable. In order to mobilize the production enthusiasm of the company, it can meet the market demand and improve the market supply. The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that whether or not to adjust the price of refined oil should not only be combined with changes in the international market, but also take into account both the downstream industry and the actual affordability of residents, and must consider the impact of oil price adjustments on the overall price level and many other factors. . According to Niu Li, the macroeconomic research department of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, the pressure on the general level of refined oil prices this year is still high, and straightening prices will push up prices. At present, a series of preferential policies adopted by the country has released a signal of no price increase, and the country will not adopt radical measures in the reform of refined oil prices.
The research group of the Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center “Promoting the Reform of Refined Product Oil Prices†believes that oil price reforms cannot be carried out only at low oil prices. International experience shows that timing is very important for the reform of oil prices, but what is more crucial is whether the reform plan is reasonable and feasible and the determination to promote reform. The United States is a successful model for launching market-oriented reforms during periods of high oil price fluctuations. During the second oil crisis, global oil prices soared, and consumers complained about the government. However, in order to solve the problem of price distortions caused by government regulations, imbalances in supply and demand, and weak competitiveness of oil companies, the U.S. government decided to phase out the issue in 1979. The oil price control achieved marketization of oil prices in less than three years.
Releasing oil prices does not mean that the government will not let prices go. Whether it is a European and American country with a relatively complete market mechanism, or a country that has just completed marketization or is transitioning to a market, all countries regulate the operation behavior of oil companies through means such as industrial legislation, establishment of distributor qualifications, and establishment of a sound technical and regulatory system. Suppress price monopoly, price increase, and vicious competition. When the price of oil is too high, the government can adjust taxation appropriately to reduce the impact of high oil prices on society and subsidize vulnerable groups. The government can pass market signals through oil reserves to influence international and domestic oil prices.
Despite the same monopoly industries, CNPC and Sinopec did not enter the investment recommendation list of JP Morgan China’s securities market chairman Li Jing like CNOOC. CNOOC’s attraction to Li Jing is as a resource company. CNOOC has its own oil. The source is not affected by price regulation. In the view of Li Jing, “Refining business of PetroChina and Sinopec has been under great pressure for some time recently. In the case of oil prices of 110 bucks a barrel, the related business is unlikely to be profitable.†Of course, Li Jing also looks The government has issued some policies to compensate for some losses of Sinopec and PetroChina, and Li Jing analyzed that “policies will have a good impact on the profitability of enterprises after April.†But in the long run, the policy supports the refiners. Given the limited confidence given to investors, Li Jing still believes that “the price of crude oil is in line with international standards, while refined oil prices are still limited by the government’s restrictions on the profitability of refineries.â€
Just a few days ago, Jiang Jiemin, chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation, said that the current domestic refined oil price is very different from that of the international market. The domestic oil refining losses are not due to refinery management issues, but are caused by unreasonable prices. When the international oil price reached 120 US dollars, the weighted average price of domestic refined oil was only 68 US dollars, which was equivalent to nearly 1/2 of the international oil price. However, in the long run, the marketization of refined oil prices is still a trend.
Common expectations for price marketization On April 19, the two major domestic oil and gas giants, PetroChina and Sinopec, revealed that the central government has provided appropriate subsidies for losses resulting from the processing of imported crude oil from April 1st. Liquidation. Unlike the VAT rebates, the Ministry of Finance does not provide an end date for this two-group support policy.
Earlier, the Ministry of Finance spent 12.3 billion yuan to subsidize Sinopec’s loss in the refining sector. On April 15, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement that from April 1, 2008 to June 30, 2008, China will import 500,000 tons of gasoline, 1 million tons of diesel oil, and 500,000 tons of gasoline imported by Sinopec, 1.5 million tons of diesel oil will be returned after the first-ever import VAT. According to preliminary calculations, PetroChina and Sinopec Corp. could reduce taxes by 1.87 billion yuan and 2.51 billion yuan respectively, totaling about 4.4 billion yuan.
Fiscal subsidies given to refiners are not optimistic about the two major groups, saying that this does not fundamentally solve the problem of losses. The recent annual report issued by China National Petroleum Corporation shows that the company's refining and sales segment suffered a loss of 20.68 billion yuan in 2007; Sinopec's refining business suffered a loss of 13.6 billion yuan last year. On April 21st, an analysis report released by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association’s “Economic Performance of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry in the First Quarter†showed that in the first quarter, the refining industry had a loss of RMB23.924 billion, and the loss was high for the first time.
Fang Lei, an analyst at Industrial Securities, took an account: Sinopec processed 70% of its crude oil each year from imports, with imports exceeding 113 million tons and China Petroleum purchasing 16.7 million tons of crude oil. Assuming that 50% of the losses incurred by the company’s imported crude oil can be financed, the Sinopec will receive financial subsidies of 8.5 billion to 9 billion yuan per quarter in the absence of a crude oil price assumption of 100 US dollars/barrel and current product oil prices. China National Petroleum Corporation is equivalent to subsidies of about 900 million yuan.
Jiang Jiemin said that the current oil refining losses must be undertaken by CNPC. “This is a social responsibility,†but he also mentioned that “the trend of price marketization has not changed.â€
The central government's series of cash subsidies and tax incentives for PetroChina and Sinopec have actually made many local oil refining companies "jealous", and huge financial subsidies unrelated to them have dampened the production enthusiasm of local oil refiners. Due to the rise in international oil prices, serious losses in ground refining and extremely low production enthusiasm, the average operating rate of atmospheric and vacuum installations has remained at the lowest level in recent years by 20% to 25%, and production of gasoline and diesel oil has also shrunk dramatically. This has become an important reason for the tight supply in some regions of the country. one.
At present, there are a total of 82 companies in the country. According to statistics, the supply of diesel for local refining accounts for 10% to 15% of domestic supply, and the supply of gasoline accounts for 5% to 10% of the country's total.
Failure of the price transmission mechanism A leader of the National Development and Reform Commission stated at an open conference that “When reporters see me, they must chase each other to ask when oil prices can be connected.†He does not care about people’s concerns. Give an accurate timeline. However, he said that the current oil price is not conducive to leveraging prices and guide consumers to choose high-efficiency small-displacement vehicles. "Last year, the growth of small-displacement vehicles was lower than the overall increase in car sales."
From April’s auto sales figures, it’s not hard to find that SUVs known as “oil tigers†are thriving in the overall slowdown in auto market growth. Sales of domestic SUVs have soared by 400 h in the first four months of the year compared with the same period last year. The above is far higher than the growth rate of passenger cars in the same period. At the same time, the import volume of luxury SUVs, large-displacement luxury sedans, and sports cars also increased significantly. China’s high-fuel-consuming, large-displacement car market presents a scene of “prosperityâ€.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that as more and more Chinese consumers purchase cars, by 2030, 80% of China’s oil consumption will depend on imports. In 2007, a total of 730,200 vehicles were sold with a displacement of less than 1.3L, accounting for 11.60% of the total sales of cars. The market share decreased by 3.7% compared with the previous year. The vehicle with a displacement of less than 1.0L sold only 251,700 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%.
It should be noted that oil prices are an incentive for Chinese companies to increase energy efficiency and energy conservation, and encourage Chinese residents to seek a healthier lifestyle, thus promoting the establishment of a conservation-oriented society as an important economic tool. Japan organically combines oil price reform with economic restructuring and corporate competitiveness. The Japanese economy has not only been washed away by the oil crisis, but has used this as an opportunity to promote the upgrading of domestic industries and nurtured such industries as Toyota Motors and Toshiba Electronics. With energy conservation and environmental protection, and large globally competitive companies, Japan has also become one of the most energy-saving countries in the world. The experience among them deserves our reference.
Japan is a country with poor oil resources. The domestic production of crude oil accounts for only 0.3% of the total supply. In order to cope with the high oil prices and possible future oil crisis, the Japanese government gradually loosened oil control on the one hand to ensure orderly and smooth transfer of oil price pressures to enterprises and consumers, making oil prices become a pressing force for companies to upgrade their technologies and carry out energy conservation and consumption reduction. The basic economic mechanism for enhancing consumers' awareness of saving is on the other hand, they are determined to adjust the domestic industrial structure, suppress and eliminate high-energy-consuming industries, formulate stringent energy-saving and environmental protection standards, and guide and force companies to reduce energy consumption.
The oil price adjustment needs to comprehensively consider that the price adjustment of domestic refined oil cannot keep up with the increase in international market prices. In the long run, it is necessary to maintain the supply of the market to rationalize prices, that is, to make producers and operators profitable. In order to mobilize the production enthusiasm of the company, it can meet the market demand and improve the market supply. The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that whether or not to adjust the price of refined oil should not only be combined with changes in the international market, but also take into account both the downstream industry and the actual affordability of residents, and must consider the impact of oil price adjustments on the overall price level and many other factors. . According to Niu Li, the macroeconomic research department of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, the pressure on the general level of refined oil prices this year is still high, and straightening prices will push up prices. At present, a series of preferential policies adopted by the country has released a signal of no price increase, and the country will not adopt radical measures in the reform of refined oil prices.
The research group of the Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center “Promoting the Reform of Refined Product Oil Prices†believes that oil price reforms cannot be carried out only at low oil prices. International experience shows that timing is very important for the reform of oil prices, but what is more crucial is whether the reform plan is reasonable and feasible and the determination to promote reform. The United States is a successful model for launching market-oriented reforms during periods of high oil price fluctuations. During the second oil crisis, global oil prices soared, and consumers complained about the government. However, in order to solve the problem of price distortions caused by government regulations, imbalances in supply and demand, and weak competitiveness of oil companies, the U.S. government decided to phase out the issue in 1979. The oil price control achieved marketization of oil prices in less than three years.
Releasing oil prices does not mean that the government will not let prices go. Whether it is a European and American country with a relatively complete market mechanism, or a country that has just completed marketization or is transitioning to a market, all countries regulate the operation behavior of oil companies through means such as industrial legislation, establishment of distributor qualifications, and establishment of a sound technical and regulatory system. Suppress price monopoly, price increase, and vicious competition. When the price of oil is too high, the government can adjust taxation appropriately to reduce the impact of high oil prices on society and subsidize vulnerable groups. The government can pass market signals through oil reserves to influence international and domestic oil prices.
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