Unmanned technology has become a common practice. For traditional car practitioners, an innovation drive is subtly changing the inherent pattern of the entire industry chain. But in the face of a new and downright thing, is the timing of its development mature? What is the level of consumer acceptance? These most basic issues are still inconclusive. At the same time, whether the important role of driverless cars "given" in the future economic society can produce the "mainstay" role, but also has a large degree of uncertainty.
In order to re-examine the impact of driverless cars on the traditional car industry from a more rational and objective perspective, The McKinsey Quarterly interviewed more than 30 experts from Europe, the US and Asia. Combined with their own investigation and analysis, the following conclusions are drawn: With the different stages of development, the impact of driverless vehicles on the upstream and downstream industrial chain and social life of the future will be concentrated in the "ten aspects."
As the range of applications for driverless vehicles deepens, different sectors of the entire automotive industry will be affected to varying degrees. To further study, McKinsey analysts divided the development of driverless cars into three phases according to the time frame: (as shown below)
1 Commercial driverless cars in the experimental stage;
2 Ordinary consumers begin to try to buy and use driverless cars;
3 Driverless cars become the main means of transportation for residents.
1. The industrial fleet takes the lead in stealing the beach. In the short term (2020~2022), not all cars on the road have unmanned functions, but in some environmentally controllable applications such as mining and farming, 100% of the people Driving a car has become a reality. In the above case, the multiple restrictions of operation and the possibility of private road use made the driverless car useful. As for how merchants profit from it, the first thing is that the cost of labor has been greatly reduced. Secondly, due to the maximum optimization of the route, the CO2 emissions of vehicles can be reduced by up to 60%. However, when it comes to applications in the field of construction and warehousing and distribution, if excavators, forklifts, and loaders are to be completely unmanned, they will have to wait until the next stage of technological development.
In the middle of the development of driverless cars (as of 2040), trucks are expected to be the first to achieve unmanned vehicles on public roads. A large number of prototype vehicles are currently in the process of testing, and the relevant car companies and suppliers are mainly focused on the development of software algorithms for complex road conditions. As for unmanned commercial vehicles (transportation trucks, drones, etc.) capable of long-distance transportation, many companies are now conducting field tests.
2. The automakers face multiple choices. According to the current development trend, in the next 2-3 years, the world's major automakers will gradually show their attitudes and positions on driverless technology, while the McKinsey Quarterly will be different. The strategic posture is divided into the following four categories:
1 High-end professional players, for some existing luxury car brands, due to their solid customer base, excellent technical background and high-quality commercial resources, they will gradually develop in the development of driverless cars, which will first manifest In the continuous upgrade of the ADAS advanced driver assistance system for each generation, until the end of the product that can achieve full automatic driving.
2 “Non-mainstream†kickers are formerly non-mainstream members of the industry. Now many technology giants, Tier 1 suppliers and even car rental companies are “conspiring†to create a new car ecosystem. Their research and development efforts are mainly focused on how to Consumers provide a more convenient and comfortable travel experience to quickly expand the market. As an adjunct to the development of the traditional automobile industry, driverless cars have naturally become the new blue ocean for these companies to compete for investment.
3 followers who follow suit. These OEMs also have strong technical and commercial resources. Most of them will invest a certain percentage of money in the development of driverless cars, but they will not put the main focus on them. On the contrary, for these car companies that are quite "smart", they will wait for the opportunity when the luxury brands invest heavily in the development of driverless cars, and then advance again after the core technology costs have dropped significantly.
4 Stop and wait / be absent-minded It is not difficult to see that these car manufacturers will try to avoid entering the driverless car market in the short to medium term.
3. New travel mode emerges When car companies focus on the development of driverless cars, the mass consumer market has emerged in various forms of travel solutions. Most companies basically adopt a pay-per-view model such as time sharing, carpooling and network calling. Of course, P2P car rental is also very hot. These innovative business models not only improve the convenience of users' travel, but also attract a large amount of investment and financing, showing a very rapid growth. In particular, the Internet car service platform has undoubtedly become a "cash cow" that the capital of all parties is betting on, and the rising market demand has made it a field that many startup companies want to enter. The future of driverless cars is expected to provide new possibilities for public travel.
4. The automobile after-sales service industry has changed greatly. The continuous increase in the number of unmanned vehicles has created an excellent opportunity for car companies to “reoccupy†the after-sales service “highlandsâ€. According to a survey conducted by McKinsey in 2014, nearly 80% of automobile after-sales stores in Germany have nothing to do with car companies. "Safety" is a top priority for driverless cars. Therefore, if it involves after-sales maintenance and repair of the driverless system, consumers may prefer to provide services directly by the car manufacturer. For independent after-sales service providers, they may not be able to afford the cost of purchasing auto-driving system maintenance equipment, and they are gradually at a competitive disadvantage.
In addition, a previous study conducted by McKinsey showed that about 60% of consumers would “listen to†the advice of driverless cars and choose after-sales outlets. Of course, in addition to huge profits, if the driverless system fails, causing traffic accidents such as car accidents, the regulatory authorities must require the car manufacturer to assume most of the responsibility, so this also provides after-sales service stores for car companies. Provides excellent reasons.
5. Auto insurance suppliers may change their business model At present, the coverage of general auto insurance covers artificial traffic accidents. However, after the commercialization of driverless cars, the core business model of the entire automobile insurance industry may change: from the hundreds of millions of private car owners to the customer's main body, bear the economic losses caused by the accident; For a limited number of automobile manufacturers, infrastructure operators, etc., after the joint responsibility for the accident caused by the failure of the automatic driving system, compensation will be given. This is similar to the current insurance/shipping company's insurance model.
6. The automotive industry supply chain will be reshaped Just as automation has made it possible for the entire automotive industry to operate efficiently and flexibly, the same unmanned technology can help the industry optimize the operation and configuration of future supply chains and logistics. Driverless vehicles with intelligent technology can effectively reduce labor costs while improving the productivity of equipment and equipment. In addition, a fully automated, lean supply chain can significantly reduce the amount of load and inventory through the use of intelligent distribution technology and the assistance of small driverless cars.
7. Driver distraction has a good reason. When a driverless car becomes the main means of travel, whether it is a commute on a working day or a weekend trip, you can take advantage of leisure time on the road, or handle important tasks, or take a break. Or watch the music. This subversive traditional way of travel can save users time, McKinsey analysts give an image metaphor: up to 50 minutes per day, then the time redundancy of all driverless cars around the world is about 1 billion Hours are twice the time required to build the Great Pyramid of Giza. In addition, the time cost savings create conditions for the expansion of other industry chains. According to statistics, passengers in a driverless car use digital media services for more than a minute via the mobile Internet. The annual profit generated by global digital media services will increase by 5 billion euros.
8. Parking is no longer a big problem. Driverless cars can not only save a lot of time costs for passengers, but also change the “deep-rooted†travel habits. In the future, only the US area can reduce the parking space requirement by about 5.7 billion. Square meters. Of course, there are many reasons for the reduction of parking infrastructure. One thing worth mentioning is that since the driverless car can fully realize the automatic parking, it is not necessary to reserve the door opening space for the passengers to get off, which makes each The parking space required for a car can be reduced by at least 15%.
9. Traffic Accident Rate Decline According to a survey released by McKinsey, as of 2050, with the popularity of driverless cars and other models equipped with ADAS advanced driver assistance systems, the number of fatalities caused by different accidents is caused by vehicle collisions. The traffic accident will sink from the previous 2nd to the 9th. At present, the impact of car crashes on the US economy is far-reaching and huge. According to incomplete statistics, the economic losses caused by road crashes in the United States in 2012 were as high as $212 billion. In the past, for example, if the driverless car and the ADAS system can reduce the accident rate by 90%, the loss of about $190 billion can be recovered.
10. The popularity of driverless vehicles will accelerate the development of consumer-grade robot technology. Because driverless cars and consumer-grade robots can be shared on many technologies (high-level remote sensing, ultra-high-precision GPS positioning, image recognition, and advanced artificial intelligence). Therefore, the large-scale application of the former will undoubtedly accelerate the latter's research and development process (including humanoid robots). In addition to enabling technology sharing, driverless and consumer robots can use the same charging infrastructure, service center, and M2M (machine-to-machine) communication network. These commonalities make it possible for industry investors who like to cross-border to have double access. At present, a number of automobile OEMs and technology companies have invested heavily in the field of consumer robots.
Car cloud summary:
The rise of driverless cars, in addition to bringing a fresh wind of change to the automotive industry, has an unprecedented impact on social and economic life. With the gradual commercialization of driverless technology, the McKinsey Quarterly’s impact on the future of the traditional automotive industry and mass travel is only a silhouette of the huge potential of driverless cars, with the aim of Practitioners and industry leaders are able to see the future of the automotive industry that has been slowly unfolding. For a long time, for the traditional automobile industry and government regulatory authorities, the biggest challenge they face is how to make the unmanned technology into a commercial scale efficiently and quickly, and the formulation of supporting laws and regulations is urgently needed.
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