In the first quarter, China’s petroleum and chemical industry operations showed four characteristics

In the first quarter of 2008, the economic operation of China's petroleum and chemical industries (except the crude oil processing industry) was basically normal, with the following characteristics: Under the influence of the national macro-control policies, the momentum of rapid growth in production in the chemical industry was initially contained, most products Production growth slowed down; as prices of crude oil, coal, electricity, raw materials and other production cost elements continued to rise, product market prices generally rose, but the increase was limited, corporate operating costs generally increased, profits declined; affected by the appreciation of the renminbi and rising prices of international market products The speed of import and export trade increased, and the trade deficit widened; fixed investment in the industry continued to grow, but new projects were significantly reduced.
1. Production of most products still maintained growth, but the growth rate decreased compared with the same period of last year. Production of most products in China's petroleum and chemical industries continued to grow, but the growth rate decreased compared with the same period of last year. Of the 68 products that were tracked, output increased. There are 62 species, accounting for 91.2%, and only 6 species are declining; compared with the same period of the previous year, there were 42 species, which accounted for 65.6% of the decline, except for the increase in the growth rate of crude oil and refined oil production. The reasons for the decline in the growth rate of most products of chemical fertilizers, basic chemical raw materials, rubber products, and synthetic materials are as follows: First, the state’s macro-control efforts have continued to increase, and the effects have gradually become apparent; second, the prices of raw materials continue to rise and labor costs have risen. The limited rise in product prices has affected the enthusiasm of enterprises.
In the first quarter, crude oil production continued to grow steadily, with a production volume of 46.85 million tons, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year; natural gas production grew rapidly, with a production volume of 20.66 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, and a 3.9 increase over the previous year. Percentage points; the two major group companies and local refineries are fully operating at full capacity to ensure production. Production increments of gasoline and diesel are all higher than those of the same period of last year, with output of 15.693 million tons and 30.440 million tons, respectively, an increase of 7% and 11.2% over the same period of last year. In the same period of last year, 1.5 and 7.2 percentage points, the ratio of diesel to diesel was 2.06, an increase of 0.08 points.
The growth rate of production of resource products slowed down, such as 2.687 million tons of pyrite, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points. Fertilizer production was due to the impact of disaster weather at the beginning of the year and the control of exports of urea and phosphate fertilizers by the state. As well as the impact of domestic demand, production increased slightly, and the cumulative production (equivalent) was 13.9533 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 8.4 percentage points. The nitrogen fertilizer output (refined) in fertilizers was 10.587 million tons, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 9.7 percentage points, and a high concentration of nitrogen fertilizer urea production of 6.322 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 13 percentage points.
The increase in the production of most inorganic, organic and synthetic materials slowed down. For example, the growth rate of concentrated nitric acid dropped by 15.8%, calcium carbide decreased by 26.6 percentage points, ethylene decreased by 21.6 percentage points, pure benzene decreased by 18.7%, and refined methanol decreased by 28.3 percentage points. Polypropylene dropped by 18.1%.
Although the increase in output of products has weakened, due to relatively high prices, the industry’s current gross industrial output value has increased substantially. In the first quarter, it has achieved a total of 1,457.16 billion yuan, an increase of 30.7% year-on-year, and an increase of 8.8 percentage points.
Second, market prices continue to rise Since the beginning of this year, China’s overall price level has been at a high level. In the first quarter, the CPI index was 8%, an increase of 5.3% over the same period of the previous year, of which, the ex-factory price of industrial products rose 6.9% year-on-year, 4.0 times higher than the same period last year. The percentage of purchases of raw materials, fuel, and power increased by 9.8% year-on-year, 5.7 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. The increase in energy and raw material prices is 2.9 percentage points higher than the factory price of industrial products. It is not difficult to see that the rise in costs has not been fully transmitted to the rise in prices. In the first quarter, the oil and chemical industry price index was 115.25, and the crude oil extraction, refining, and chemical industry price indices were 134.34, 113.02, and 110.46, respectively. In the chemical industry, the prices of resource and basic industries have risen significantly. For example, with the introduction of the resource tax, the prices of chemical ore have risen. The industry price index is 125.83, ranking the first in the industry; the fertilizer industry and basic chemical raw materials manufacturing price index Respectively 119.41 and 118.18, ranked second and third, subdivision products, sulfur, sulfuric acid, soda ash, caustic soda and urea, phosphate fertilizer, fertilizer and other prices are at high levels.
After the international crude oil price broke the mark, the price of WTI crude oil in the United States broke the one hundred yuan/barrel mark on February 19, breaking another US$110/barrel on March 13. It is almost US$120/barrel so far, and March WTI crude oil The average spot price reached US$104.41/barrel, up 72.75% year-on-year, and domestic refined oil prices also rose, but the increase was far lower than the increase in international crude oil prices. In March, the domestic 90# gasoline market average price was 6,535 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous year. It rose 9% and the average price of 0# diesel market was RMB 6012/ton, up 10.3% year-on-year.
Since the beginning of this year, the trend of domestic fertilizer prices has continued unabated. This round of fertilizer prices rose sharply, mainly due to the sharp increase in energy, raw material prices, strong domestic and foreign demand and other driving forces. Phosphate fertilizer is still the product with the largest price increase from the perspective of the prices of chemical fertilizers that are tracked. In March, the market price of monoammonium phosphate was 3,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 81.1% year-on-year, and diammonium phosphate 4,100 yuan/ton, up 30.2% month-on-month and 60.5% year-on-year. The increase in both products has set a new record high. The price of urea reached 1940 yuan/ton, up 7.5% year-on-year.
The price of inorganic chemical products continued to rise strongly. The prices of sulphur and sulphuric acid continued to rise sharply. In March, the average price of the sulphur market was 4,760 yuan per ton, up by 252.6% year-on-year; the average price of the sulphuric acid market was 990 yuan per ton, up by 110.6% year-on-year. The price of organic chemical products was stable. Toluene was 8,550 yuan/ton, up by 11.9% year-on-year, and xylene was 8,410 yuan/ton, up by 3.7% year-on-year, and methanol by 3,400 yuan/ton, up by 14.1% year-on-year.
The market trend of the five general-purpose resins varied. In March, the polystyrene prices declined slightly year-on-year, and the prices of polyvinyl chloride and polyethylene increased relatively, while those of polypropylene and ABS resin were slightly conservative. The price increase was within 10%. In the rubber and products industry, the prices of both natural rubber and synthetic rubber both showed a rising trend, and some synthetic rubber prices increased faster than natural rubber. For example, nitrile rubber and butadiene rubber rose by 38.6% and 27.8% in March, respectively. (SCR5) is only 7.9%.
3. Affected by oil refining losses, the industry’s overall benefits declined. In the first quarter, economic growth at home and abroad slowed down, demand declined, the US dollar continued to depreciate, the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis deepened, and the effects of international oil and basic raw material prices soared. The economic benefits of the industry have fallen significantly, especially in the refining industry. Statistics show that from January to February of this year, the industry’s total realized main business income was 889.86 billion yuan, an increase of 30.64% year-on-year, an increase of approximately 9 percentage points year-on-year, and a total profit of 77.149 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.12% year-on-year. The increase was 24.6%, the first decline since 2001; total profits and taxes were 126.587 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, an increase of about 19 percentage points year-on-year. There were 5,672 accumulated loss-making enterprises, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and a loss of 20.45%. Loss-making enterprises suffered a loss of 34.923 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 580.5%.
From the perspective of the three sub-sectors, the profits of the oil and natural gas exploration industry increased by 61.23% in the first two months; the profits of the chemical industry increased by 17.1%, a substantial drop of 68.6 percentage points from the same period of last year; as the international oil price continued to rise sharply, the domestic market oil price was inverted. Seriously, the profit of the refining industry dropped sharply, with a cumulative loss of 23.924 billion yuan.
It is expected that the profits of the petroleum and chemical industry may decline in the first quarter, with a drop of around 2%. After entering the second quarter, with the gradual implementation of various national policies, adjustment of product structure and industrial structure, the petrochemical industry's profits will show a recovery growth. The specific growth rate will depend on the international oil prices, the quantity of oil imports, the prices of domestic refined oil products, prices of energy and raw materials, and domestic macroeconomic growth.
In the first quarter of this year, due to factors such as rising prices of products in the international market, increasing pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi, and continuous increase in domestic production costs, the import and export trade of the petroleum and chemical industries in China accelerated in full speed, and the trade deficit expanded rapidly. grow rapidly. The import and export trade reversed with the same period of last year. The increase in import trade surpassed that of export trade. In the first quarter, the total import and export trade volume of the industry was US$97.69 billion, an increase of 42.9% year-on-year, of which import trade amounted to US$68.57 billion, an increase of 46.1% year-on-year. It was 31.9 percentage points faster than the same period of last year; the export trade volume was 29.12 billion U.S. dollars, up 36.1% year-on-year, faster than the same period of the previous year by 6.9 percentage points; the import trade volume was faster than the export trade volume by 10 percentage points, and the trade deficit expanded rapidly. US$39.45 billion, an increase of 54.4% year-on-year, faster than 25.2% in the same period of last year. The sharp increase in the average crude oil import price was the main reason for the expansion of the industry-wide trade deficit. In the first quarter, crude oil imports amounted to 45.529 million tons, an increase of 14.8% year-on-year, but the average price increased by 66% year-on-year, and the import trade volume increased by 90.6% year-on-year. The proportion of trade deficit accounted for 75.3%, an increase of 14.3 percentage points over the same period of last year.
From the import situation, due to the shortage of refined oil supply in some local areas, the import volume of gasoline and diesel increased. In the first quarter, they were 77,000 tons and 1.664 million tons, respectively, an increase of 190.5% and 607.8%, respectively, in order to improve the domestic enterprises imported refined oil The enthusiasm of the Ministry of Finance announced on April 8 that it had decided to import 500,000 tons of gasoline, 1 million tons of diesel and China Petrochemical Corporation from China National Petroleum Corporation from April 1, 2008 to June 30, 2008. The importation of 500,000 tons of gasoline and 1.5 million tons of diesel oil by the company is effected after the import value-added tax is collected first, which is undoubtedly a great advantage for the two large groups that are trapped in the loss of the refining sector. Sulfur import growth was strong and prices continued to rise sharply. The import volume in the first quarter was 2.637 million tons, and the average import price was 394 USdollars/ton, which was more than five times the same period last year (73 US dollars/ton), followed by the import of sulfuric acid. The average price rose as much as US$72.9/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 253.3% and the import volume decreased by 5.45%. In order to protect the supply of refined oil products, domestic enterprises reduced the output of chemical light oil, and the ethylene import volume increased significantly by 176.2%.
Judging from the export situation, the export situation of caustic soda and soda ash in inorganic chemical products was good. The export volume was 415,000 tons and 467,000 tons, respectively, and the average export price rose by 99.9% (liquid caustic) and 141.2% respectively. Fertilizer products, due to relatively low tariffs in the first quarter, have seen rapid growth in exports. The urea export volume was 2.285 million tons, an increase of 282.2% year-on-year, and the average export price was 318.7 USD/ton, up 29.3% year-on-year; and the monoammonium phosphate export volume was 35.8. Ten thousand tons, an increase of 112.8%, the average export price was 496 US dollars/ton, up 90% year-on-year; the output of diammonium phosphate was 377,000 tons, an increase of 95.9%, the average export price was 562.7 USD/ton, up 93.6% year-on-year . It can be seen that although 30%~35% of the export tariffs are to be turned over, neither the absolute price nor the price increase will be higher than the domestic market. Moreover, the prices in the international market are still rising and the enterprises are still profitable. The inhibition of exports does not seem to be obvious. To this end, on April 14, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice to the existing export tax rates for all types of fertilizer products and some raw materials exported from April 20 to September 30, 2008 for all trade forms, regions, and enterprises. Based on the export price, based on the export price, the special export tariff is imposed, and the tax rate is 100%. At this point, the export tariffs on urea, phosphate fertilizer and other products are raised to 130% to 135%. The export profits of enterprises will shrink sharply, and the export trade will drop rapidly.
5. The increase in investment in fixed assets has continued unabated, but the number of new projects started to decline In the first quarter of this year, the increase in investment in fixed assets of the petroleum and chemical industries in China continued unabated. The actual investment was 110.53 billion yuan, an increase of 33.4% year-on-year and an increase of 15.5 percent over the same period of last year. Percentage. In terms of sub-industries, the growth rate of investment in the three sub-sectors was faster than that of the same period of the previous year. Among them, the investment in the oil refining industry grew rapidly, totaling 17.64 billion yuan, an increase of 96.9% year-on-year and an increase of 83.7 percentage points over the previous year; crude oil extraction and chemical industry The investments completed were 29.69 billion yuan and 61.67 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 18.6% and 29.7% year-on-year, respectively, 8.3 and 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.
From the perspective of investment structure, the current basic chemical raw materials (especially organic raw materials and inorganic alkalis), special chemicals and fertilizers are the key areas for investment. New projects started to decline compared with the same period of last year. The total number of newly started projects in the industry totaled 1,197, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. Among them, the crude oil extraction industry decreased by 71.2%, the refining industry decreased by 13.9%, and the chemical industry increased slightly by 3%.
From a regional point of view, industry investment is still concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin and other provinces and cities, but its share has started to decline. In the first quarter of this year, the top three cities in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Tianjin that completed the investment amount have completed 38.54 billion. Yuan, accounting for 34.9%, decreased by 3% compared with the same period of last year. Coastal areas or western provinces and cities rely on rich resource backgrounds or support from national development policies. Investment growth is accelerating. The fastest is Guangxi with a growth rate of 325.3%, followed by Ningxia and Shanghai with 221.4% and 102.2 respectively. %.