High inventory comes to cut production or become the theme of the auto market in the second half of the year

The high temperature of auto companies is set to increase year by year, but it is ten days in a week. In previous years, there was no interest in private affairs within the company. What is interesting about this year is that this holiday will produce some subtle changes to the market, and such changes are very likely. It is a key factor in the transition.

The auto industry is a highly cyclical industry. It is normal for the supply and demand situation to fluctuate with fluctuations in the economic situation. In the face of such markets, adjusting supply to meet market demand should be the only principle. In the next few years, the auto market in various parts of the country was sluggish. As most auto companies did not reduce their output, auto dealers faced a heavy inventory pressure. The latest data from China Steam R&D Co., Ltd. show that the current auto market inventory has reached as high as 1.4 million. August is exactly what each major During the period when auto companies concentrated on high-temperature holidays, when high stocks were exposed to high temperatures, first-tier car dealers welcomed a rare opportunity to breathe. With the output of 123.80 million vehicles in July, the mainstream car companies took a week off and the output of the auto industry would decrease. 150,000 vehicles.

Who heats to cool?

Entering August, hot spots throughout the country are difficult. As most auto companies do not have air-conditioners in their production workshops, excessively hot weather is obviously not conducive to production. From August onwards, a large number of car companies have taken high-temperature holidays as usual.

The reporter learned that in South China, the three major Japanese automakers Guangqi Honda, Guangzhou Automobile Toyota and Dongfeng Nissan have taken a week off. In Central China, the entire Dongfeng Motor Group and its subsidiaries are on vacation, including Shenlong Motors, Dongfeng Fengshen, Dongfeng Honda, etc. Changan Automobile, which is located in the southwest, also started a week off from early August, including its Changan Ford Mazda, Changan Suzuki and Changan mini-vehicles.

In addition, car prices in some central provinces also have high-temperature fakes, including GAC Changfeng, Changhe Automobile, Jiangling Automobile and SAIC-GM-Wuling etc.

In accordance with established practice, industrial workers have also been given valuable time to maintain and maintain their production facilities during the vacation period. They are preparing for further sales during the peak season of “Jin 9 Silver 10”.

From the national sales figures, since the beginning of April, auto sales have fallen for four consecutive months. China National Automotive Research Institute believes that 58 days have approached the upper limit of a reasonable inventory period, from the absolute value, the current auto market stocks up to 1.4 million, The inventory data was close to 2.5 months after the nationwide reduction in the number of cards sold in May and June was more than 600,000.

Or reduce inventory opportunities?

General auto companies have high-temperature holiday for more than a week, and a few for as long as 10 days. Under the current weak market environment, car companies have successive holidays and the pressure on the inflated inventory can be described as a timely rain. With an annual output of 300,000 vehicles. As an example, car enterprises have a daily output of 820 cars. If this company takes 10 days of high temperature leave, it is equivalent to cutting production by more than 8,000 vehicles in July and August.

Although some auto companies including FAW Group still have no vacation, many large-scale automobile groups including Chang'an, GAC and Dongfeng have taken a share of nearly half of the current industry's market share. The calculated output of the industry will fall by 150,000 units. .

Industry insiders also believe that because of the fact that car prices are often subject to high temperature leave, it is a practice that they take a subjective leave not to reduce production. However, the current environment has played an important role in mitigating inventory. He said that car prices are It is also the reason that this month is the off-season sales.

Reduce production or become the theme of the auto market in the second half of the year

Recently, "inventory" has become a lingering haze in the Chinese auto market, and the slowdown in the auto market is an indisputable fact.

In order to stimulate sales and relieve inventory pressure, several manufacturers have continuously intensified promotional efforts. In particular, Japanese manufacturers, FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota have aggressively reduced their prices for a share, which has caused a strong market reaction and the auto market price war has already begun.

At present, the auto market in the third quarter is still not optimistic. The auto market in August is bleak, and it is difficult to recover the decline in September. Therefore, the entire third quarter may become the bottom month. Now, in the fourth quarter, the auto market is depressing. Can we release enough energy after five months? At present, even the most optimistic analysis has to admit that even if the rebound in the fourth quarter is even greater, it will not be able to change the annual auto market before the high and low, the second half is not as good as the overall trend of the first half.

It is worth noting that from the announcement of BYD's reduction of production and sales targets, some rational car companies have begun to look at the auto market with a more cautious attitude.