Norway, the Netherlands, France, the United Kingdom... The wind of banned fuel vehicles spurned from Europe finally scraped into China. Recently, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated at the TEDA Forum that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has included the timetable for the ban on fuel vehicles in the research catalog. Xin Guobin said that as of the end of 2016, China’s car ownership was close to 200 million vehicles, and huge car ownership has brought tremendous pressure on resources, energy, and the environment. It is reported that the fuel consumption of passenger cars in China is still far from the international level. According to the current speed of development of the automobile industry, China's commitment to the international community will be fulfilled - carbon emissions will peak in 2030 and the proportion of primary energy will reach 20%. Still large, it requires the hard work of the entire automotive industry. Based on this, consider the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles has been put on the work schedule of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Although China is not the first country to propose a “fuel sales prohibitionâ€, it has imposed restrictions on fuel vehicles in some large cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai. The restriction policy is already a limited sale of fuel vehicles in disguised form. From the original intention of restricting fuel vehicles, the atmospheric environment has improved to varying degrees. Some analysts pointed out that before the implementation of the fuel vehicle sales ban, the gradual replacement of existing fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles is the most effective means of alleviating energy and environmental pressure. It should also be included in the top-level design.
â– Consumption base support replacement stock
Since many countries in Europe announced that the banned fuel vehicles will be included in the legislative process and China considers the timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, the ban on fuel vehicles has become an international trend. On the surface, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles belongs to the government's administrative means. It is the government’s tendency to guide the development of the auto industry through administrative regulations. However, careful analysis is not difficult to find, behind the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is not only the "visible hand" in the manipulation, "invisible hand" is also playing a role. Looking at the development of new energy vehicles in recent years, the consumption of new energy vehicles in our country already has a certain foundation.
“From the current hot selling of low-speed electric vehicles, it can be seen that there is a huge potential for consumption in the domestic electric vehicle market. At least, consumers do not reject electric vehicles. The cost of purchasing and using electric vehicles has been declining, combined with simple operation, easy maintenance, and as a new energy source. The electric car, one of the automotive categories, represents the development trend of the future automobile industry.In terms of market competitiveness, new energy vehicles have certain advantages. Currently, new energy vehicles are still unable to replace fuel vehicles, mainly due to the immature level of technology. To, "said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Association for the League of Nations. Yan Jinghui, an expert consultant of the National Association of Commerce and Industry Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce, also believes that phasing out fuel vehicles is not merely a government act. There are certain consumer incentives to replace fuel vehicles. There are many new energy automotive products that can meet consumer demand for travel.
Qiu Junjun, an automotive review expert, found that compared with the use of new energy vehicles in Europe, many people support the country's ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. “A lot of consumers in Europe choose to buy new energy vehicles, which are closely related to the high environmental awareness of local residents.†Qiu Junjun said, “It is worth noting that as a country with the highest proportion of global electric vehicles, Norway’s electric vehicle sales ratio According to the latest data, the proportion of electric vehicle sales in Norway has risen to 30%, while in Germany, where the fuel vehicle stop-sale schedule has not been announced, the market growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles in August was as high as 200%. Qiu Junjun believes that consumers with greater environmental awareness will be more proactive in replacing their fuel vehicles.
â– The replacement process should not be "one size fits all"
According to the latest statistics from China Automobile Association, in August China's automobile production and sales reached 2.093 million units and 2.186 million units, respectively, and production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 72,000 units and 68,000 units, respectively, accounting for 3.4% and 3.1% respectively. Judging from the proportion of new energy vehicles, only three out of every hundred consumers in China have purchased new energy vehicles. It is not difficult to see that the huge volume of stock fuel vehicles and the replacement of existing fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles is a huge and complex system project that cannot be accomplished overnight.
For the replacement of fuel vehicles, Dai Jun, a test engineer of BAIC New Energy Vehicle System, believes that technology is not the biggest problem. He believes that it is not only the technology but also the consumers that need to make changes in replacing the existing fuel vehicles. Dai Jun said: "Electric cars are a trend in the automotive industry and are also the general direction of automotive R&D. As the battery technology becomes more mature and the cost is lower, the range of use of electric vehicles will gradually expand, and in the future, it may expand to use in severe cold regions. "Dai Jun believes that while upgrading the technology, it is important to gradually change the habits of consumers. When a generation's travel and usage habits change, it will determine the time when the fuel vehicle is completely replaced and banned. .
In addition to the habits of consumers, compared with European countries, China has a vast territory and different geographical conditions. In addition, there are many social strata in China, and the level of consumption and their concepts are far apart. These factors all lead to greater pressure and difficulties for China to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. Qiu Junjun believes that China's ban on the sale of fuel vehicles takes longer and is even more difficult. If it is forced to uniformly ban fuel vehicles nationwide, this move is not only unrealistic, and its legitimacy is yet to be discussed. Cao He, President of All-Inclusive Vehicle Investment Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., said that with reference to the ban on sales of several European countries, China's time to ban the sale of fuel vehicles will certainly be 10 to 20 years later than in Western countries, at least until 2040. Rear.
â– Replace the rhythm with local conditions
Chen Qingquan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering who is one of the e-vehicle R&D and promotion veterans, believes there are two prerequisites for replacing fuel vehicles: First, new energy vehicles still have a strong price/performance ratio after they cancel their financial subsidies, attracting consumers to take the initiative to choose; Domestic infrastructure construction is fully prepared. Before a product is banned, it is necessary to have a substitute product to make a good connection, and then it can be decided by the market. In addition, we must avoid over-interpretation of the “forbidden salesâ€. “The prohibition of sales of fuel vehicles is not necessarily a complete ban on fuel, the use of electric motors, or the use of electric motors,†Chen Qingquan said.
Cui Dongshu stated that the replacement of fuel vehicles should be “concrete and specificâ€, and the development of new energy vehicles should be divided into categories, sub-regions, and city-level classifications, among which passenger cars and passenger cars should be used first, big cities should be the first, and trucks, especially medium- and heavy-duty trucks. The principle of follow-up shall be differentiated according to different regions. In the northeastern remote areas and the northwestern mountainous areas, due to the lack of electricity supply, it is not possible to enter the electrification in a one-size-fits-all manner. Hybrid and intermixed models may be used as transitional options.
Qiu Junjun suggested that while promoting new energy vehicles on a large scale, it is also necessary to strengthen the transformation of the power grid. According to the New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap, the total carbon dioxide emissions from the oil wells to the wheels of the Chinese automobile industry will show a declining trend in 2028. If the country transitions from a high-carbon grid to a low-carbon grid by 2025, the carbon emissions from the automobile industry will be reduced. It will begin to decline from 2026. This move can contribute 100 million tons of CO2 emission peaks that China promises. "Advocating replacement of energy-saving and new energy vehicles + grid transformation, multi-pronged approach may soon achieve the desired effect of energy-saving emission reduction." Qiu Junjun said.
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