Frankfurt Motor Show May Be the Final Ceremony for the End of Diesel Cars

The Frankfurt Motor Show celebrated the dawn of an electric car and also rang the death knell for diesel cars.

Previously, diesel was once considered a method to increase fuel consumption, and it can cope with global warming. Because diesel engines are 30% more powerful than gasoline engines, fuel can be saved and CO2 emissions can be reduced. Throughout Europe, the government persuaded consumers to use diesel by providing tax breaks and other incentives.

But now everything has changed. In particular, the outbreak of Volkswagen's "Diesel Gate" incident in September 2015 began to make the world full of hatred for diesel engines, deepening concerns that toxic diesel emissions will affect the environment and the atmosphere. So-called oil burners have become the number one public enemy.

In 2011, the sales of diesel-powered cars and SUVs reached 55.7% of the total sales in Western Europe, and remained at around 50% before 2015, but this proportion is now falling sharply. Some experts said that by 2025, the market share of diesel vehicles may drop to about 15%.

It is worth noting that Europeans have always liked diesel because the cost of gasoline is extremely high, reaching three times that of the United States. In the United Kingdom, the tax rate for gasoline is not only about 60%; another tax is more than 70%. Therefore, diesel has great advantages.

However, the panic caused by diesel cars to human health completely crushed its own value. This has also become a major issue in the current German election. A large number of car buyers are seeking to ensure that the value of the car itself will not be reduced if it is harmless to the body.

However, major cities such as Stuttgart, Munich, Paris, and London where the Mercedes-Benz headquarters are located have allegedly banned the use of diesel vehicles in urban centers.

At the same time, some countries have also announced the schedule of banned fuel vehicles. The Dutch Labor Party publicly proposed to prohibit the sale of traditional gasoline and diesel cars in the Netherlands from 2025 onwards, so as to ensure that after 2025 all new cars are new energy vehicles. The United Kingdom and France France has stopped selling petrol and diesel vehicles since 2040. India plans to ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, and by 2020 India plans to sell 6 to 7 million electric vehicles each year.

Xin Guobin, deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, said that China has started the research on the cut-off schedule for the suspension of production of traditional energy vehicles.

Therefore, diesel is destined to die, right?

Peter Fuss, a car specialist at Ernst & Young GmbH in EY, doesn't think so.

“Currently diesel will not perish. We still need diesel technology to drive trucks and cars to achieve climate-friendly goals. People will soon see improved diesel technology. But consumers need to be confident that given the use of clean technologies, their Diesel vehicles will not be banned by the municipal government. This is a common goal that all stakeholders, including politicians, the automotive industry, and consumers need to agree on,” said Scott.

However, Citi research analyst Michael Tyndall said: "It may be too late to save diesel."

"Although the recent image of diesel has changed, it seems that it can be clean before 2020, even cleaner than gasoline. But the main focus of the problem is on people's perceptions." Di Dai said.

“Given the sharp decline in the sales of diesel vehicles, consumers are obviously reluctant to take risks. We believe that without the joint efforts of car manufacturers to win the trust of consumers and the government, diesel vehicles may go on the path of obscurity. This is to achieve carbon dioxide. The emission target seems to be bad news, because electric vehicles, whether they are technology or cost, are not comparable to diesel vehicles and seem to have a long way to go. Therefore, without major subsidies, electric vehicle sales It's impossible to keep soaring."

David Bailey, a professor at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, England, was pessimistic about the development of diesel vehicles.

“We will see that some local courts in Germany will take more actions to implement the diesel ban in various cities. The government has a lot of space to participate in this intervention. This will have a significant impact on the sales of diesel vehicles and the residual value of diesel vehicles. By 2025, diesel's market share will drop sharply, reaching about 14%." Bailey said.

Buying electric cars is indeed becoming a fashion wave. Frederic Lissalde, vice president of BorgWarner, said that the market share of European diesel vehicles has indeed dropped by about 2 percentage points.

Therefore, diesel generators will soon be forgotten. The government is forcing the adoption of tax policies to allow traditional carmakers to make choices.

At the Frankfurt Motor Show, Daimler said that its Mercedes-Benz luxury brand plans to provide electric vehicle versions for all models by 2022. BMW said that by 2025 BMW will launch 25 new energy models worldwide, of which 12 models are pure electric models and 13 models are plug-in hybrid models. Volkswagen also announced that in 2025, the Group's brands will launch more than 80 new electric models, including 50 models of pure electric vehicles and 30 plug-in hybrid models, which is higher than the original plan of 30 models. By 2030, at least one electric version will be introduced in over 300 models of the Group's global market covering all levels.

Therefore, the Frankfurt Motor Show opened the prelude to the crisis of diesel vehicles and gasoline vehicles.