The decline in natural gas heavy truck sales due to the drop in oil prices and the narrowing spread of fuel and gas is expected to improve due to the favorable new policies. From January 1, 2015, the National IV emission standards that have been repeatedly delayed will be fully started.
“The arrival of the “National Four†“primary limit†directly stimulated the natural gas heavy truck market in the second half of the year.†Zhang Haibin, senior consultant of Hejun Consulting Group, told the reporter. In the first half of this year, domestic sales of natural gas heavy trucks were only around 12,000 vehicles. However, sales data of the top 10 mainstream heavy truck manufacturers such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Shaanxi Auto Heavy Truck Co., Ltd. can be seen in the first 10 months of this year. The sales volume reached 24,727 units, which means that in the second half of the year, sales of natural gas heavy trucks exceeded the first half of the year.
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In view of this, in Zhang Haibin's view, the main reason is the increase in costs brought about by the process of upgrading the country four in the third country, resulting in a reduction in the spread of natural gas heavy trucks and fuel trucks. According to the reporter's understanding, prior to this, the equivalent allocation of natural gas heavy trucks was approximately 50,000 yuan more than that of diesel vehicles. With the upgrading of the emission standards, the spread was gradually reduced to 20,000 to 30,000 yuan. In addition, due to the current domestic technical scheme for heavy goods trucks upgrading from the country to the country, the use of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technology is generally adopted to treat the nitrogen oxides in the exhaust gas with urea solution. In the process, the amount of urea used is 3% to 5% of the fuel consumption. For every 100L of fuel consumed, 3~5L of vehicle urea need to be consumed. The average price of car urea on the market is about 6.5~8 yuan/L. According to this price, a heavy-duty truck dealer in Shanghai calculated an account for the reporter. The annual mileage of the vehicle owner is calculated as 200,000 kilometers. The increase in the cost of adding urea will reach about 20,000 yuan.
Heavy truck HOWO natural gas heavy truck
“As a result, the advantages of using natural gas vehicles are reflected. On the one hand, although the price of natural gas vehicles is still higher than that of diesel vehicles, this price difference can be effectively filled by the use cost in the later period. On the other hand, it is more convenient to refill the gas than to refill urea. More.†The above dealers think. According to his estimation, when the natural gas heavy truck is in use, the fuel cost is about 30% cheaper than a diesel vehicle.
Although the overall demand for domestic heavy-duty truck market has been sluggish in recent years, the segmented market for natural gas heavy trucks has shown a momentum of vigorous development. According to statistics, in 2011, domestic sales of natural gas heavy trucks were only around 5,000, while in 2012 it reached 12,000, and in 2013 it was close to 30,000. In view of this, mainstream heavy truck manufacturers include Shaanxi Auto, China National Heavy Duty Truck, etc. Both have adjusted their production structure and started to tilt toward the natural gas field. However, the market in the first half of this year was not as vigorous as it was supposed to. Instead, the market has declined.
The decline in sales of natural gas heavy trucks is due to weak demand in the heavy truck market, but the more important issue is the narrowing of the spread between natural gas and diesel. An insider of Sinotruk told the reporter that when the price of gas for vehicles is about 75% of the fuel price, the use cost of the two is basically the same, which means that only when the price difference between the two exceeds 25%, Consumers will choose gas models. Since the second half of last year, with the increase in the price of natural gas, natural gas prices have risen in various places. The rate of increase has ranged from 0.5 yuan to 0.8 yuan per cubic meter. At the same time, the price of diesel has continued to decline, from a high of last year. The 7.5 yuan/L dropped to around 6.6 yuan/L. From the data point of view, although the spread between natural gas and diesel is still greater than 25%, the advantage has been gradually reduced compared with before.
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"Therefore, in a sense, it is an emission upgrade that 'pulls' a natural gas heavy truck," said the person concerned with heavy trucks. In his opinion, in the last two months of the implementation of the New Deal, natural gas heavy trucks will continue to grow.
Although the potential for natural gas heavy truck growth is huge, it is subject to many factors, and its sales and use will still have a certain regionality. An insider of China National Heavy Duty Truck said: "Although long-haul tractors and half-way shuttles currently start to select natural gas heavy trucks, they are still concentrated in the large-scale company. One team is not all natural gas vehicles, but more fuel oil. Cars, in addition, generally have separate gas supply systems to ensure their operation."
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