Cheng Zhenyao: New Energy Vehicle Path Selection Should Not Be Simplified

Whether China's new energy vehicle business is successful or not will depend to a large extent on whether or not the strategy is appropriate. The scientific and correct attitude should be: In terms of understanding, it is necessary to proceed from a strategic height and understand that the development of new energy vehicles is a major trend in the world. The trend is one of the focuses of the competition in the world auto industry. At the same time, it is also a rare opportunity for China to catch up with and surpass the world advanced level. To implement the scientific development concept, we must attach great importance to it and join us with great enthusiasm.

In this regard, indifferent, wait and see, you may miss the opportunity, or be left behind by others, will eventually be abandoned by the market. But in action, be sure to seek truth from facts, starting from the national conditions, the factory conditions, really work hard, stable and strong At the same time, no one is in a cloud, always keeping a clear head, in the era of major technological changes, all conclusions must be tested through practice to be sure.

The new energy auto business is a complex system engineering and an unprecedented scale of technological innovation. It must not be false and impetuous. China must not engage in (or reproduce) similar to the so-called "national steelmaking" in the late 1950s. The so-called “Great Leap Forward” parody, so-called “curve passing” or “leapfrogging development”, is a matter of strategic perspective, and it is full of confidence in the development of new energy vehicles. As long as efforts are made and methods are applied, There is the possibility of catching up with the advanced level in the world. However, in the specific scientific experiments and production practices, there are no shortcuts. There should be no shortage of “homework” or “section”.

Designated hazard

Now, after all, there are many opinions about how to develop new energy vehicles, and what kind of main direction and technology line to choose. From the current stage, both domestic and international, several major categories of new energy vehicle technology solutions have their own The advantages and disadvantages, but they have not reached the level of maturity, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the development prospects. Hastily determine a program as China's main attack direction, its risk is almost equal to the hesitancy to wait and see, or even greater. If the wrong direction The harder you go, the faster you go, and the farther you go, the greater the loss will be, the more time will be lost, and the greater the gap with the international level. Therefore, the direction of selection is the key to the success of China's new energy vehicles. This need to be considered carefully and cautiously.

In order to avoid big mistakes, it seems to be “stupid” but it is a safer way to “cross the river by feeling the stones” without fully understanding the situation or accurately grasping the situation. At the same time, this also means that The exploration of new energy vehicles in China needs to go through a period of “hundred flowers blossoming and a hundred schools of thought contend”. All kinds of technical representatives should have a scientific attitude of seeking truth from facts, listen carefully to the opinions of others, and hold the truth in their hands. The only criterion for the evaluation and selection of various options is practice, scientific data and experimental results, and it is by no means authoritative, status and reputation. At the same time, blindness should not be ignored in the light of China’s specific national conditions. Foreign) wind.

In the face of the controversy over the strategic options for the development of new energy vehicles in China, some people are extremely anxious and afraid of delaying the “fighters”. Therefore, it is proposed that the state should come forward to “fix the tone”. However, many experts inside and outside the industry disapprove of this. This proposal is not appropriate or serious. The economist Wu Jinglian pointedly pointed out at the national innovation forum held at the end of 2009 that (the government) could not specify technical routes and product routes. This is a very dangerous thing. For example, in the development of high-definition television, Japan The Ministry of International Trade and Industry decided to develop an analog signal model and the result was overtaken by the US digital signal model, lagging behind the entire era.

Some representatives who participated in the 2009 Academic Annual Meeting of the China Internal Combustion Engine Society believe that history has proven that successful technologies are generated in the fierce market competition and not selected by any person or institution. Overseas scholars, Institute of Automotive Technology, Technical University of Berlin Dr. Qin Yuxue, director of the R&D project, questioned China's practices in the development of new energy vehicles in the current stage. He believes that the government strongly promotes a new technology or guides a certain technical direction too clearly. The drawbacks of the new technology will appear in the future. The mainstream technology is developed by numerous manufacturers who participate in development through flourishing efforts, and in the environment of big waves scouring the sand, after the survival of the fittest is finally recognized by the market's technology. The government can not determine the direction of science and technology development, but can not determine the direction of the world's technology. Technology development and the development of the natural world In the same way, the survival of the fittest, the ultimate choice of technological development will be left behind, rather than the government mandated route.

Of course, the government is not saying that nothing is done in the development of new energy vehicles. According to the recommendations of relevant experts in the industry, the government’s support in certain aspects is indispensable, but the government’s financial assistance cannot be invested in every technical route program. The risk is too high, but it should focus on the intersection of various technical routes and general technology.

The priority of strategic choice

In order to more accurately select the development direction and strategy of China's new energy automotive technology, the author believes that the following basic principles should be followed and China's energy strategy should be fully considered.

First, the selected plan must meet the basic requirements of the country for the characteristics of emerging strategic industries. On September 21, 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out at a forum that the emerging strategic industries must truly master key core technologies, otherwise they would be subject to human ; To have a broad market prospects and low resource consumption, driving the coefficient, employment opportunities, comprehensive benefits of good industrial characteristics.

Secondly, the concept of "full life cycle" is used to evaluate and measure the energy conservation and emission reduction effects of various new energy vehicles. Its definition is: the input and output of a product system from the natural world to the raw materials to the final disposal of the life cycle. The total amount of material and potential environmental impacts. For example, gasoline-fueled vehicles consume and discharge energy throughout their life cycle, including oil exploration, extraction, storage, transportation, smelting, and transportation to gas stations after being converted into gasoline. After all the energy of the car is burned and the emissions in the whole process, the foreign image is called "Well-to-Wheel", that is, "from the mine to the wheel."

It can be seen from this that judging the overall energy consumption and emissions of the car is more realistic and more realistic, and therefore more scientific. It is only one-sided and inadequate to just look at these situations in the user's use. It is also not enough to believe. For example, some companies or companies today declare how their new energy automotive products can achieve zero emissions. In fact, this is misleading the market and public opinion. Because the so-called zero emissions, the most ideal situation also means only The state of the vehicle itself at the time of the operation, without considering the energy consumption and emissions of the vehicle's process of obtaining kinetic energy (such as electrical energy or other types of fuel). If measured by the concept of "Well-to-Wheel", then it is in the impression of many people. So-called zero-emission vehicles and ultra-efficient vehicles will be greatly reduced.

In addition, the selection of new energy vehicle technology solutions must fully consider the national long-term energy development strategy. Allegedly, a basic idea of ​​the national energy strategy is to promote energy diversification, focus on adjusting the energy structure, and increase the proportion of renewable clean energy. , Lowering the proportion of traditional fossil fuels, reducing dependence on oil, reducing their dependence on foreign countries, and ensuring national energy security. According to this, relevant experts in the industry proposed that energy saving should be given priority in the pursuit of the goal of developing new energy vehicles in China. It is emission reduction and technology leadership. The author believes that this idea, after being processed, consolidated and theorized, can be regarded as one of the selection principles of new energy automotive technology solutions.