Charging difficulties + debt management new energy vehicle development problems how to break?

According to an interview with a reporter from the Economic Information Daily, in the field of new energy vehicles, China and the global automobile manufacturing powerhouse are on the same starting line and have even more advantages in some of these areas. China has become the largest market for new energy vehicles in the world, gradually making breakthroughs in key technologies, and accelerating the seizure of domestic and foreign new energy vehicle markets. China's auto industry has ushered in an unprecedented opportunity.

The industry generally believes that in the next five years, it will be the “window period” for the accelerated maturation of new energy vehicle technologies and the formation of industrial patterns. The strength of national industry support cannot be relaxed, and the future development will depend on the simultaneous drive of both “wheels” of market and policy. .

New energy automotive industry is booming

The development of new energy vehicles is a strategic choice for countries around the world to cope with energy and environmental pressure and occupy a commanding height in the new round of global competition. In recent years, China has vigorously supported the development of new energy vehicles and achieved remarkable results. Roland Berger, a world-renowned strategic management consultancy, recently released the "Global Electric Vehicle Development Index for the second quarter of 2017", which shows that China has achieved the world's first ranking in the electric vehicle development index ranking.

China’s auto industry has not been able to catch up with developed countries in the core parts and components such as engines and transmissions. The “market-for-technology” strategy has had little success, but in the field of new energy vehicles, China and the world’s car-manufacturing countries stand On the same starting line, there are even more advantages in some of these areas. The reporter found that some companies have achieved breakthroughs in the key technologies of new energy vehicles and accelerated the seizure of domestic and foreign new energy vehicle markets. China's auto industry has ushered in an unprecedented opportunity.

First of all, China has become the largest market for new energy vehicles in the world.

Since the reform and opening up, especially since the new century, China's automobile industry has developed rapidly. According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2016 China's automobile production and sales exceeded 28 million vehicles, ranking the first in the world for eight consecutive years. In particular, new energy vehicles have become the world's largest production and sales market. Five years ago, the output of new energy vehicles in China was only 10,000 vehicles, and now it has reached more than 500,000 vehicles, and the total number has been promoted to more than 1 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of the global market, and the potential market capacity of global new energy vehicles has reached 80,000. One hundred million U.S. dollars.

Jiangling Group Director and General Manager of Jiangling New Energy Automobile Company Liu Nianfeng believes that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will achieve a leapfrog development, but it will account for only 1.8% of the entire automobile market. This means that China's new energy vehicles have very good development opportunities and prospects. . "Anyone who has mastered new energy vehicles will have the initiative in the future car sector and the entire industrial layout will change."

Second, China's new energy vehicle key technologies have gradually achieved breakthroughs.

Industry insiders pointed out that China's new energy vehicles still have gaps in the "three powers," namely, batteries, electronic controls, and motors. However, the gap has continued to narrow, and has reached the world's leading level in some segments.

Power batteries are the "heart" of new energy vehicles, and China's R & D level is among the highest in the world. The energy density of the ternary lithium battery produced by Fuxin Technology, a battery company in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province, exceeds the Japanese Panasonic battery used by Tesla. The battery management system developed by the company can control the temperature difference between the batteries in the battery pack within 2°C, which greatly prolongs the service life of the battery. Wang Fu, chairman of Fuenge Technology, believes that China has mastered some of the core technologies of power batteries, and the profitability of the industrial chain is also under control.

As a representative of a traditional car manufacturer, Liu Nianfeng believes that China has not lagged behind in terms of motors. In particular, the advanced high-speed rail electric drive technology has been cited as a new energy vehicle manufacturing and has become a technological advantage. However, Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd. Minister of New Energy Vehicle Management Zhan article pointed out that the domestic smart vehicles from the perception, calculation, control of the core equipment is still dependent on imports, need to strengthen technical research.

Again, the development of new energy vehicles in China will catch up with the opportunity period.

At the beginning of September this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revealed that it has started research on the timetable for stopping the production and sales of conventional energy vehicles, and will formulate a timetable for China with relevant departments. This measure marks the official ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in the country. This is the first statement made by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the ban on sales of fuel vehicles. Prior to this, many European countries had already announced a timetable for the complete ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. Individual car companies also indicated that they will sell electric cars only in the future. There are various signs that the fuel truck has long since exited the historical stage.

The industry believes that the gradual development of new energy vehicles is becoming increasingly clear. Coupled with China's desire for a carbon credit policy, some long-term competitors that are willing to wait and see in new energy vehicles will begin to act. After the implementation of the points policy, the independent brands will be the biggest beneficiaries. Many joint venture car companies may have to achieve their own standards by purchasing surplus points of their own independent brands.

"In fact, multinational car companies have enough new energy automotive technology and product reserves." Luo Zhiyong, director of the Lithium New Energy Development Bureau in Yichun City, Jiangxi Province, believes that once multinational car companies start importing new energy vehicles, independent brands must be able to New energy vehicles will achieve breakthroughs in technology and promote the upgrading of products.

Policy resilience needs to be strengthened

At present, the development of new energy vehicles in our country still faces the problems of excessively high costs, inadequate industrial support policies, inadequate construction of charging piles and other supporting infrastructure. China's new energy automobile industry has entered a key turning point from the introduction period to the growth period, and the maturity of the industry is not enough. Recent adjustments in industrial policies have made some new energy auto companies feel that they are obviously unable to eat.

First of all, the national subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be excessively fast and the pressure for enterprises to reduce costs will be enormous. “20% reduction in slope in one year, and elimination of subsidies by 2020, this is not in line with the law of cost reduction by enterprises.” Vice President of an old passenger car plant told reporters that due to new energy vehicles arbitrage incidents in previous years, the country’s support policies were closed. Tight, but due to the rise in the price of battery materials, the cost of digestion should be at least two to three years. “Now it is forcing car companies to desperately reduce costs. The original 8 mm steel plate is now reduced by 6 mm steel plate. The duct was originally an aluminum pipe and a copper pipe. Now it is changed to a plastic pipe, and the cruising range is constantly decreasing... ”

Zhu Jun, head of the new energy technology of Shanghai Automotive Industry Group Co., Ltd., said with emotion that SAIC Motor’s 30,000 new energy vehicles sold more than 7 billion yuan, but its R&D investment exceeded 7 billion, and the company’s share of this was at a loss.

Liu Nianfeng is worried that the country will cancel the preferential policies for the purchase of new energy vehicles earlier. "There is an argument that the purchase-free policy may be cancelled in 2018. Now it is the time when the development of new energy vehicles is critical, and the state's policies cannot be too aggressive." In addition, she pointed out that even if there is a stage of subsidy, the subsidy funds also need car prices. Advance advancement. Public car purchases require 30,000 km to get a subsidy, and the company's subsidy funds will be pressed for 3 years, which is unbearable for entrepreneurial companies.

Second, the lack of continuity of national industrial policies and the heavy burden on corporate policies. A number of car owners mentioned the over-management of new energy vehicle announcements. The company reflects that almost every year's announcement must be revoked once, and queuing up for the announcement of a model. The company has to spend 3 million and invest 30 million yuan in applying for 10 models a year. "The vehicle that meets the standards this year will not be up to the standard next year, and it will be scrap if it is not processed in advance."

Liu Qiangen, deputy general manager of power battery company Dubico, introduced that the car companies that were cooperating with them were fortunate to be on the first batch of announcements this year, so they currently have 80% of the load running. However, they learned that some battery factories have stopped producing 70-80 percent of their production capacity because the models of co-branded vehicles were not listed in the bulletin. In the period from July to December 2016, more than 3,000 models across the country stopped production due to late submission of catalogues.

Once again, infrastructure issues such as charging piles and power resource allocation are still the constraints of the promotion of new energy vehicles. According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, as of April 2017, the number of public charging piles in China has exceeded 170,000, and the pattern of “six vertical, six vertical, two horizontal and two rings” of intercity high-speed fast charging stations has taken shape. In some of the hot-selling cities for new energy vehicles, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the contradiction between charging infrastructure has been greatly eased.

However, in contrast to the number of over 170,000, the average usage rate of these charging posts is less than 10%. From a quantitative point of view, the charging piles have been running all the way in the past two years. However, behind the sharp increase in the number, the entire industry is still in a sloppy development enclosure. At present, the number of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is approximately 110,000, which is the largest number of new energy vehicles in the world. According to incomplete statistics, there are about 86,000 charging stations. Regardless of the rough calculation of the type of charging pile, the ratio of the vehicle pile in Shanghai has reached 1.2:1, but it is still difficult to charge.

From a national point of view, compared with the widespread enthusiasm for investing in new energy vehicles and lithium power industries, there are still serious regional imbalances in charging infrastructure. Liu Nianfeng introduced that currently there are only more than 4,000 charging piles in the entire province of Jiangxi, and the utilization rate is low. She explained that the construction of a fast charging pile requires hundreds of thousands of yuan to build a new energy parking lot. It needs to be approved by dozens of government departments such as housing, property, urban management, electric power, fire control, and planning. Insufficient incentive for enterprises to invest in charging infrastructure.

Some local governments are also working hard to change this situation. A few days ago, Nanchang City issued the "2017 Nanchang New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Financial Subsidy and Award Program." According to this plan, Nanchang plans to complete the promotion target of 5,060 new energy vehicles this year, including 4,300 passenger cars, 480 passenger cars and 280 special vehicles. The annual sales of 30,000 new energy passenger car manufacturers will receive a reward of 15 million yuan. Each new model will receive 700,000 yuan R&D rewards. The charging pile construction unit can obtain a subsidy of 400 yuan per kilowatt of DC charging piles.

In addition, some local electric power infrastructures are not perfect. The discussion on charging and changing electricity is still inconclusive. It also allows a group of car companies and power battery companies to ignore the technical route and restricts the new energy automobile industry from becoming bigger and stronger.

Markets and policies need to work together

The industry generally believes that in the next five years, it will be the “window period” for the accelerated maturation of new energy vehicles and the formation of industrial patterns, and the country’s industrial support efforts cannot relax. Only the two "wheels" of the market and the policy drive at the same time, China's new energy auto industry can create a way out.

First, the new industry support policy should be clear as soon as possible so that enterprises can adjust their development strategies in a timely manner. The reporter found that it is impossible to rely on state subsidies for development, and reducing the dependence on subsidies has become an industry consensus. However, the current situation of the company and the next few years will also face the difficult situation of high cost and low yield, and urgently need follow-up policies to continue to support.

"A lot of companies are still operating in debt, and state subsidies should continue for another five years." Luo Zhiyong suggested that state subsidies can be regressed by 5% to 7% a year and the subsidy cycle lengthened. He analyzed that the cost of a power battery is now 1,500 yuan. If it can subsidize 500 yuan, then the price of new energy vehicles with cruising range of 300 to 400 kilometers can be lowered. As technology advances and the degree of mass production increases, when the cost of the battery is reduced to 1,000 yuan per kilowatt hour, the subsidy of 500 yuan can be cancelled.

Like many waiters in the industry, Liu Nianfeng looks forward to the country's follow-up policy can be finalized as soon as possible. For example, the carbon integration policy, cross-border multinational companies, and the relevant departments have solicited several rounds of opinions, but it is still unclear. "The development of enterprises requires a five-year plan. Some of the national policies are mandatory, some are guiding, and the state is not clear. We will not do a good job in our next plan."

Second, we must speed up the layout of supporting infrastructure for new energy vehicles. Ordinary consumers are deterred by new energy vehicles because of their difficulty in charging, and capital markets are not profitable because new energy vehicles have a low level of ownership. At present, in order to stimulate the construction of charging pile foundations, the state and local governments have raised the subsidy for charging piles as new energy vehicles have been adjusted downwards. However, problems concerning site approval, upgrading of power facilities, allocation of power resources, and property management can be effectively solved. There is no rule to follow everywhere, and all countries need to further eliminate policy obstacles. In addition, a number of industry sources pointed out that raising the amount of subsidies can certainly stimulate infrastructure, but also pay attention to subsidies assessment and construction utilization, and truly complement the construction of new energy vehicles and charging piles.

Third, the state must guide the improvement of industrial support and respond to problems that may arise in the later stages. The reporter found that the new energy automotive industry has become the most prominent “business card” for local governments to highlight the structural changes and promote the transformation. Some places that do not have any supporting industries are also sparing no effort to introduce new energy automobile industry, and some companies have made cross-border manufacturing. New energy vehicles, there are many cases of failure. "Being a cross-border vehicle is not always possible for three or five years," said Zhong Zhihe, head of the operation center of Zhangzhou New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd.

The supply chain system has not kept pace with the expansion of new energy vehicles, making it difficult to reduce manufacturing costs. Liao Zhenggen, assistant to the president of Far East Foster, suggested that the state should support some industrial bases and help improve industry support.

In addition, as new energy vehicles sold in previous years gradually entered a recession period, the recycling of power batteries must also be guided in advance. “Including auto companies and battery manufacturers, we must link up with battery processing companies to form a recycling path.” Liao Zhenggen said that the country’s first batch of 200,000 new energy vehicles will be decommissioned this year, and the number of decommissioned batteries will increase in the next few years. According to Liu Nianfeng, there are not many companies engaged in battery processing in China at present, and improper recycling of batteries will cause chemical pollution.