Characteristics of fan demand forecast For small and medium sized wind turbines with a wide range of uses, the product structure and manufacturing process are relatively simple and the cost is low. The main users are pursuing high efficiency, low noise, long life, and low price. The other is capital, technology-intensive, complex product structure, long manufacturing cycle, complete sets and systems, and high-voltage, high-temperature and high-speed conditions, and some even under harsh operating conditions, the user Fans have different requirements. For turbine blowers, compressors and large ventilators, users are mainly pursuing high quality, high reliability, smooth operation and long cycle times.
The current small wind turbine products already have grid connection capabilities and a wider range of application environments. They have gradually been promoted to small distributed power generation systems and become an important branch of the new energy industry.
The development of China's small fan market is slow and there are many reasons, but the key constraints are roughly the following:
First, China has not established a sound subsidy mechanism for small wind turbines that restricts the development of the small wind turbine market.
Small wind turbines, like other forms of renewable energy power generation, have no conversion efficiency comparable to traditional energy sources such as coal, petroleum, and wood. For example, coal has a combustion efficiency of more than 80%. However, the energy conversion efficiency of wind power generation is less than 50%, and the minimum requirement of small wind turbines can only reach about 30% due to the simplicity of control. Moreover, due to the intermittent nature of wind energy, the peaking or stabilizing costs of wind power generation are higher. Therefore, the economic efficiency of wind power generation is poor, and it cannot directly participate in the traditional power market competition. It can only be promoted through state subsidies. China currently has only a few macroeconomic policies to determine the development direction of wind energy and other renewable energy, and has not established a detailed and practical encouragement policy for small wind turbines, thus restricting the development of China's small wind turbine market.
Second, low annual power generation is a key factor that restricts the promotion of small wind turbines.
Like large wind turbines, annual power generation is a core indicator of the economic performance of small wind turbines. However, for small wind turbines for distributed generation that are used in homes, communities, etc., under the conditions of offsetting electricity charges and selling electricity to the grid as the main incentives, the annual power generation of small wind turbines is more concerned by users. The annual output of the wind turbine is determined by the aerodynamic efficiency and the wind speed interval of the generator. The wind energy utilization coefficient directly determines the unit power curve, and also directly affects the wind speed interval. Large wind turbines have already been developed due to pitch control, speed control and other power control technologies, and their wind energy utilization coefficient can reach about 50%. Because of the simple structure requirements of small wind turbines, there is not enough space and economic investment to establish a power control system, so the wind energy utilization factor is relatively low, and the average horizontal axis small wind turbine has a wind energy utilization coefficient of less than 35%. The low utilization factor of wind energy and too little annual power generation have become the key factors restricting the promotion of small wind turbines.
Third, the technical requirements for noise, safety, and reliability of small wind turbines are more stringent in the residential areas.
Since small wind turbines are commonly used in residential areas, their noise interference, safety, and reliability are highly concerned. Humans have a certain limit value for the decibel value of naturally sustained sound, and the noise interference limit required by schools, hospitals, office areas or residential areas at night is lower, generally not higher than 35db. However, in order to ensure high wind energy conversion efficiency, the small fan has a faster rotation speed, so the noise value is higher. The current noise level of small wind turbines is generally 40db~50db, and noise interference is an important reason why people are reluctant to choose small wind turbines to make energy supply solutions.
Fourth, factors such as grid-connected capabilities, development quality, ease of setup, and the need to deploy certain energy storage equipment to increase investment also constrain the chance of small wind turbines becoming energy solutions.
In summary, there are many bottlenecks in the development of China's small fan market, but in-depth analysis, we can find that the government's incentive policies and incentives are the most important constraints, followed by the small wind turbine wind energy conversion efficiency, annual power generation, reliability, security Sex and grid-connected capabilities are also important factors in improving the economic performance of small wind turbines and enhancing their position in the new energy industry. For China's rapid development of small wind turbines and other renewable energy industries, it is necessary to address the constraints and propose effective solutions.
First, the state needs to accelerate the establishment of subsidies, taxes and other laws and regulations for the construction of efficient, sustainable, long-term, stable, and operable small wind turbine projects, and establish incentive and incentive mechanisms to promote the market development of small wind turbines.
Second, to strengthen the work of small fan technology research and development, market applications, etc., to improve the small fan's aerodynamic performance, can be monitored, increase annual power generation, noise elimination, so that the economic performance of small wind turbines have market competitiveness.
Third, we must strictly control the quality of work in all aspects of small wind turbines, and use inspection, certification, and traceability methods to ensure the safety and reliability of small wind turbines.
The energy-saving renovation of wind turbines is a great opportunity for enterprises. The use of centrifugal fans accounts for about 5% of the total power generation in the country, and it is of great significance to carry out energy-saving transformation of centrifugal fan systems. Domestic centrifugal fan company after-sales testing, energy-saving renovation and other services and the resulting sales of accessories accounted for less than 10% of total sales. Compared with foreign matured fan business services and accessories sales accounted for 40% of total sales have much room for improvement.
Most of the modern wind turbines adopt the three-dimensional flow theory. The continuous deepening of this theory plays an important role in the fan impeller design and overall design. This is not only for large capacity, high pressure, compact structure, low energy consumption, low noise, high efficiency, good plasticity, and strong exhaust gas purification capability; it is universally adopted for outfitting without foundation, full enclosure and low noise design, which greatly saves installation. Fundamentals and commissioning costs; Continuous development of new valves that operate under variable conditions to greatly increase valve life; In product design, application of centrifugal fan thermodynamics, dynamics calculation software and its work process simulation software, etc., to improve the accuracy of calculation In order to improve the success rate of new product development, the mechatronics integration is enhanced through the comprehensive simulation model to predict the performance parameters of the machine under actual conditions. Compared with this foreign high-tech fan, it is clear that we have many deficiencies.
The traditional business will benefit from energy-saving transformation. Capacity replacement capacity will be 2.16 billion yuan in the next three years. Currently, over 95% of domestic large-scale industrial centrifugal fan business revenue comes from the four major industries of iron and steel, cement, thermal power and petrochemicals. Although there are overcapacity problems in steel, cement and other industries. The construction of new production capacity will slow down, but as China undertakes a large-scale industrial structure upgrade, it will continue to carry out energy-saving renovation projects such as big generation small, energy saving, industrial environmental protection and so on, which will generate a large number of centrifugal fan demand. According to the “Notice on Further Strengthening the Elimination of Backward Production Capacity†of the State Council, it is required to close down 100 million tons of backward production capacity such as steel, cement, and thermal power within 2-3 years. According to preliminary estimates, the large-scale production capacity replacement in the downstream industry will increase the market capacity of large centrifugal fans by 2.16 billion yuan. The core competitive advantage lies in the pressure on the three-mode model of leading advanced R&D strength, excellent energy conservation and advanced services.
The current small wind turbine products already have grid connection capabilities and a wider range of application environments. They have gradually been promoted to small distributed power generation systems and become an important branch of the new energy industry.
The development of China's small fan market is slow and there are many reasons, but the key constraints are roughly the following:
First, China has not established a sound subsidy mechanism for small wind turbines that restricts the development of the small wind turbine market.
Small wind turbines, like other forms of renewable energy power generation, have no conversion efficiency comparable to traditional energy sources such as coal, petroleum, and wood. For example, coal has a combustion efficiency of more than 80%. However, the energy conversion efficiency of wind power generation is less than 50%, and the minimum requirement of small wind turbines can only reach about 30% due to the simplicity of control. Moreover, due to the intermittent nature of wind energy, the peaking or stabilizing costs of wind power generation are higher. Therefore, the economic efficiency of wind power generation is poor, and it cannot directly participate in the traditional power market competition. It can only be promoted through state subsidies. China currently has only a few macroeconomic policies to determine the development direction of wind energy and other renewable energy, and has not established a detailed and practical encouragement policy for small wind turbines, thus restricting the development of China's small wind turbine market.
Second, low annual power generation is a key factor that restricts the promotion of small wind turbines.
Like large wind turbines, annual power generation is a core indicator of the economic performance of small wind turbines. However, for small wind turbines for distributed generation that are used in homes, communities, etc., under the conditions of offsetting electricity charges and selling electricity to the grid as the main incentives, the annual power generation of small wind turbines is more concerned by users. The annual output of the wind turbine is determined by the aerodynamic efficiency and the wind speed interval of the generator. The wind energy utilization coefficient directly determines the unit power curve, and also directly affects the wind speed interval. Large wind turbines have already been developed due to pitch control, speed control and other power control technologies, and their wind energy utilization coefficient can reach about 50%. Because of the simple structure requirements of small wind turbines, there is not enough space and economic investment to establish a power control system, so the wind energy utilization factor is relatively low, and the average horizontal axis small wind turbine has a wind energy utilization coefficient of less than 35%. The low utilization factor of wind energy and too little annual power generation have become the key factors restricting the promotion of small wind turbines.
Third, the technical requirements for noise, safety, and reliability of small wind turbines are more stringent in the residential areas.
Since small wind turbines are commonly used in residential areas, their noise interference, safety, and reliability are highly concerned. Humans have a certain limit value for the decibel value of naturally sustained sound, and the noise interference limit required by schools, hospitals, office areas or residential areas at night is lower, generally not higher than 35db. However, in order to ensure high wind energy conversion efficiency, the small fan has a faster rotation speed, so the noise value is higher. The current noise level of small wind turbines is generally 40db~50db, and noise interference is an important reason why people are reluctant to choose small wind turbines to make energy supply solutions.
Fourth, factors such as grid-connected capabilities, development quality, ease of setup, and the need to deploy certain energy storage equipment to increase investment also constrain the chance of small wind turbines becoming energy solutions.
In summary, there are many bottlenecks in the development of China's small fan market, but in-depth analysis, we can find that the government's incentive policies and incentives are the most important constraints, followed by the small wind turbine wind energy conversion efficiency, annual power generation, reliability, security Sex and grid-connected capabilities are also important factors in improving the economic performance of small wind turbines and enhancing their position in the new energy industry. For China's rapid development of small wind turbines and other renewable energy industries, it is necessary to address the constraints and propose effective solutions.
First, the state needs to accelerate the establishment of subsidies, taxes and other laws and regulations for the construction of efficient, sustainable, long-term, stable, and operable small wind turbine projects, and establish incentive and incentive mechanisms to promote the market development of small wind turbines.
Second, to strengthen the work of small fan technology research and development, market applications, etc., to improve the small fan's aerodynamic performance, can be monitored, increase annual power generation, noise elimination, so that the economic performance of small wind turbines have market competitiveness.
Third, we must strictly control the quality of work in all aspects of small wind turbines, and use inspection, certification, and traceability methods to ensure the safety and reliability of small wind turbines.
The energy-saving renovation of wind turbines is a great opportunity for enterprises. The use of centrifugal fans accounts for about 5% of the total power generation in the country, and it is of great significance to carry out energy-saving transformation of centrifugal fan systems. Domestic centrifugal fan company after-sales testing, energy-saving renovation and other services and the resulting sales of accessories accounted for less than 10% of total sales. Compared with foreign matured fan business services and accessories sales accounted for 40% of total sales have much room for improvement.
Most of the modern wind turbines adopt the three-dimensional flow theory. The continuous deepening of this theory plays an important role in the fan impeller design and overall design. This is not only for large capacity, high pressure, compact structure, low energy consumption, low noise, high efficiency, good plasticity, and strong exhaust gas purification capability; it is universally adopted for outfitting without foundation, full enclosure and low noise design, which greatly saves installation. Fundamentals and commissioning costs; Continuous development of new valves that operate under variable conditions to greatly increase valve life; In product design, application of centrifugal fan thermodynamics, dynamics calculation software and its work process simulation software, etc., to improve the accuracy of calculation In order to improve the success rate of new product development, the mechatronics integration is enhanced through the comprehensive simulation model to predict the performance parameters of the machine under actual conditions. Compared with this foreign high-tech fan, it is clear that we have many deficiencies.
The traditional business will benefit from energy-saving transformation. Capacity replacement capacity will be 2.16 billion yuan in the next three years. Currently, over 95% of domestic large-scale industrial centrifugal fan business revenue comes from the four major industries of iron and steel, cement, thermal power and petrochemicals. Although there are overcapacity problems in steel, cement and other industries. The construction of new production capacity will slow down, but as China undertakes a large-scale industrial structure upgrade, it will continue to carry out energy-saving renovation projects such as big generation small, energy saving, industrial environmental protection and so on, which will generate a large number of centrifugal fan demand. According to the “Notice on Further Strengthening the Elimination of Backward Production Capacity†of the State Council, it is required to close down 100 million tons of backward production capacity such as steel, cement, and thermal power within 2-3 years. According to preliminary estimates, the large-scale production capacity replacement in the downstream industry will increase the market capacity of large centrifugal fans by 2.16 billion yuan. The core competitive advantage lies in the pressure on the three-mode model of leading advanced R&D strength, excellent energy conservation and advanced services.
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