2011 car market prospects: go left or right? (two)

In 2011, China's auto industry must be ready for "landing." After experiencing a frantic period in 2010, the upcoming 2011 will be sad and happy?

The crash of the auto market in 2004, 2006 and 2008 made people think that the Beijing auto show held every few years must be the “small year” of the auto market. However, this year completely subverted this rule. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of the passenger vehicle industry in the country has increased by more than 37%. The support for this madness is the government’s car purchase stimulus plan and the new models that have been continuously launched. Of course, the sales blowouts from November and December From the perspective of consumers, they are even more uncertain about the 2011 auto consumption market.

In November, the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association revealed that the cumulative sales of passenger cars exceeded 1.1 million, and all segments of the market have hit new highs during the year. In December, the same madness was being staged. Before the various preferential policies expired, consumers rushed to spend. It is foreseeable that in December 2010, new sales will be created for the past several years.

However, after the auto market experienced continuous overdrafts, the pressure of auto market growth in the first quarter of 2011 was unprecedentedly high. First of all, the wait-and-see sentiment before the Shanghai Auto Show in April will put consumers on hold; second, the small-displacement purchase tax concessions will also be abolished, which is not a small blow for car consumers. Third, in the 12th Five-Year Plan, The various localities are ready to ease the congestion-restricting car-carrying policy... A variety of factors indicate that it is possible to repeat 2004's great joy and sadness in 2011.

Under the severe turmoil in the auto market, it will inevitably undergo a new round of industrial rankings. For companies such as Volkswagen, GM, Nissan, and Honda who have made great strides in 2010, they are more immune to the potential decline in 2011. However, for companies like Toyota that did not outperform the average in 2010, it may be another colder winter to welcome them. For self-owned brands, the return to a rational auto market growth is not necessarily a bad thing. The development of the Great Leap Forward has led many companies to focus only on sales reports, but lacks motivation in technology research and development and new product development.

In the face of great sadness that may be overjoyed after 2011, the auto industry must prepare for landing and promote a more healthy development model with a more rational attitude.


Interpretation of the 2011 auto market policy: encourage energy-saving emission reduction into the main line 18 million! China’s auto market will continue to lead the world in 2010 and become a certainty! However, it is well-known that, in addition to the rigid demand of consumers, the stimulating of national policies is another important reason for the rapid growth of the Chinese auto market. However, next year, policies such as vehicle purchase tax concessions, car subsidies to the countryside, trade-in subsidies and other policies will leave people with more doubts about the auto market in 2011. People's concerns are not unreasonable. After interviewing people in the industry, the reporter found that the auto market policy in 2011 will encourage energy conservation and emission reduction as the main line. For several consecutive years, the auto market “roller coaster” may return to a stable position in 2011.

Are favorable policies to exit in batches?

"The cancellation of purchase tax concessions next year has almost no suspense, but the government is worried that the immediate abolition of preferential policies may bring some negative effects to the market." Rao Da, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicles Association, said in an interview that "the global economy has gradually recovered The withdrawal of preferential tax policies for purchase taxation issued by the state during the financial crisis is already a general trend.” He believes that compared to the purchase tax concessions, the two policies of automobile transportation to the countryside and trade-in replacement will have limited effects on the overall automobile market. According to his analysis, subsidy for cars to the countryside and trade-in subsidies were originally introduced as supplementary measures to purchase tax concessions. Since the main incentive measures have been cancelled, as a supplementary policy, there is no need to continue implementation.

Rao Da said that the Chinese auto market is a “policy market”, and the growth of spurt is due to the stimulation of the country’s favorable policies. “The characteristic of the policy auto market is that the effect of policy stimulus is immediate, but abrupt cancellation will bring great concern to the market. Therefore, in 2011, the state took a batch of withdrawals from these policies, which also gave the auto market a reasonable buffer for returning from blowouts.”

Energy saving subsidies continue to implement?

Another voice believes that the subsidy for cars to the countryside and the old-for-new subsidies policy will continue to be implemented, but the relevant contents should be revised. Gong Yu, the deputy secretary-general of the China Commercial Vehicles Federation, pointed out this view. He said that the standard for scrapped cars stipulated in trade-in replacements is expected to increase. He cited the example that the original scrapping standard for yellow-marked cars was Euro I, which may increase to Euro next year. II emissions, and gradually choose to withdraw time.

In his view, in 2011 the auto market still retained a favorable "subsidy program" - fuel consumption energy subsidies. All energy-saving models that meet the fuel consumption level of the third phase will continue to enjoy a subsidy of 3,000 yuan for energy-saving vehicles. Up to now, the ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have announced the list of four batches of energy-saving models. Now there are more than 20 manufacturers and more than 260 models can obtain this 3,000 yuan subsidy. "However, there is still no obvious effect of policies such as car purchase tax concessions on retaining the driving role of energy-saving subsidies for the auto market."

Encouraging policies to reduce emissions In the view of Liu Bo, the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, boosting sales and boosting market confidence are the main tasks of car incentive policies in the past two years. This task has already been completed. "Since the 12th Five-Year Plan period starting in 2011, the state's task for car management will be mainly on energy-saving and emission-reduction. Therefore, the encouragement policy for the automotive industry will be more reflected in supporting technological upgrading and eliminating backward production capacity. ”

He said that the “draft of vehicle and boat tax law” draft published at the end of October has already indicated that the country’s previous consumer-buying policies for the auto market have started to shift.” He believes that the models that need to raise taxes in the tax adjustment of vehicles and boats will even go down to Below 1.6 liters of displacement, these models have previously encouraged consumption. It is clear that the new tax policy for vehicles and boats is to highlight the role of energy conservation and emission reduction. The retirement standards of the trade-in policy have been gradually improved, and its role is more reflected in energy-saving and emission reduction, he said.

The economic contraction and the slowdown of the auto market At present, inflation has become a hot topic and has become a common concern among the people. According to Jia Xinguang, an automotive expert, inflationary pressures cannot be fundamentally resolved within a short period of time. Auto consumption, which is closely related to the people, is bound to be affected continuously. According to his predictions, the overall macroeconomic tone next year will be "full tightening," and the public's consumer sentiment will also be tightened, and will be passed on to manufacturers. "In 2010, the growth rate of China's auto market will reach 30%, but in 2011 and beyond, the growth rate of the Chinese auto market will slow down to around 10%." Jia Xinguang said, "The reason for the slowdown in growth rate is that auto consumption The various stimulus policies will gradually withdraw, as well as the rapid growth of the auto market in the past two years, overdrawing consumer demand in 2011.