What can we do in the face of agricultural aging?

[ China Agricultural Machinery Industry News ] China is a big agricultural country. To realize agricultural modernization and ensure food production and increase farmers' income, we must first solve the labor problem of agricultural development. Although from the actual stage of agricultural production at present, the aging of the agricultural labor force has not affected the grain output, but we must be wary that aging will become a normal state and may affect the future development of China's agriculture.

What can we do in the face of agricultural aging?

The rural aging process has developed particularly rapidly. According to the national third, fourth, fifth and sixth census data, in the nearly 30 years from 1982 to 2010, China’s population aging has increased by 4 percentage points, of which the city has increased by 3%. The town grew by 3.7% and the village grew by 5%. Some scholars believe that aging will affect agricultural production. In order to illustrate the impact of aging on China's agricultural production, this study used rural households' fixed observation points from 2003 to 2011 to examine the age distribution of agricultural laborers in China and the differences in food production among farmers of different ages.

The labor participation rate of the elderly is rising

Before analyzing the actual impact of aging on agricultural production, it is necessary to first count the time of farming for the elderly farmers to observe the labor participation of the elderly in rural areas. Referring to the research method of Li Wei (2009), first, calculate the time (day) for all family members in the township to engage in agricultural labor in the township, that is, the family agricultural labor time; secondly, calculate the age of the households in the family at 50. The agricultural labor time (day) of the labor force above the age, that is, the old agricultural labor time. On this basis, the proportion of labor time in the agricultural industry to the family agricultural labor time, that is, the old agricultural labor time/family agricultural labor time is calculated, and this ratio is used as the basis for the follow-up farmer classification. Among them, the farmers whose agricultural labor hours account for half of the total agricultural labor hours in the elderly are classified as old-age farmers, and less than half are classified as young and middle-aged farmers.

From the perspective of the change in the proportion of old-age labor and farming time, the average household agricultural labor time showed a downward trend, from an average of 284 days in 2003 to 204 days in 2011, a decline of about 9 days per year. However, the farming time of the middle-aged and old-age labor force in the family is on the rise. The final result is that the proportion of the agricultural work time of the elderly labor increased from 27.4% in 2003 to 34.2% in 2011, an increase of 6.8 percentage points, indicating the degree of aging of the agricultural labor force in China. As we continue to deepen, the labor participation rate of rural elderly is rising.

Cultivated land is more fragmented

The area of ​​cultivated land and the number of blocks in this study include all food crops, cash crops and garden crops. According to calculations, the area of ​​cultivated land for elderly farmers in 2003 was 5.92 mu, which was lower than 7.80 mu for young and middle-aged farmers. The gap between the two has gradually narrowed. In 2011, the average farmer households operated an average of 6.38 mu of cultivated land, only 0.1 mu of cultivated land was less than the young and middle-aged farmers. The cultivated land area of ​​the old-age farmers has generally increased, while the area of ​​cultivated land of young and middle-aged farmers has fluctuated. Compared with 2003, the average cultivated land per capita of young and middle-aged farmers has decreased by 1.32 mu in 2011. Judging from the number of cultivated land, the number of cultivated land managed by elderly farmers in 2003 was basically the same as that of young and middle-aged farmers. The increase in the scale of operation led to a decline in the number of operating blocks, but the decline of old farmers was small. The average number of cultivated land for elderly farmers is 4.22, which is 0.56 less than that in 2011. The average cultivated land per household for young and middle-aged farmers has dropped to 3.32, with an average decrease of 1.45. Excluding the size of the plot, the average farmer households have an average of about 1 plot than the young and middle-aged farmers. In short, the average operating scale of young and middle-aged farmers is slightly larger, but the total area of ​​operations and the number of blocks are decreasing year by year, while the average operating scale of old-age farmers is slightly smaller than that of young and middle-aged farmers, and the degree of cultivated land is more fragmented.

Old-age farmers play an important role

Judging from the situation of grain production, in the context of the year-on-year increase in total grain output, the food production situation of the elderly farmers has not shown a disadvantage compared with the young and middle-aged farmers. In 2003, the average grain output of the old-age farmers was 2070.04 kg, and the average output of the young and middle-aged farmers was 2410.55 kg. The income per capita of the two types of farmers was shrinking year by year. In 2009, the old-age farmers exceeded the young and middle-aged farmers in the per capita grain output. On average, 66.79 kg of food was produced more than young and middle-aged farmers. In the following two years, the elderly farmers also maintained the advantage of young and middle-aged farmers in food production, and the advantages have been widened year by year. In 2011, the gap between the two increased to 209.59 kg. In 2011, the food output of the elderly farmers accounted for 42% of the total grain output, which increased by 14 percentage points in the past ten years.