The country lowered the import and export tariff rate of some natural rubber, but this has a relatively limited impact on the cost of the tire industry. With the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials, it is difficult to avoid the inflection point of the industry profit.
According to the Ministry of Finance's policy announcement, starting from January 1, 2010, China will further adjust the import and export tariffs. The implementation of the selective tax on latex, cigarette films, and rubber products will continue to impose a natural levy on the level of natural latex, at a rate of 720 yuan/ton or 10% from the low level, while the smoke film and standard rubber will be subject to lowering the tax amount. In 2009, smoke film and standard rubber were counted as low as 2,600 yuan/ton or 20%. In 2010, smoke film was reduced to 1,600 yuan/ton or 20% from the low, and the rubber price was reduced to 2,000 yuan/ton or 20. % from the low count.
The reduction of tariff rates has a limited impact on the cost of the tire industry. According to industry experience, the proportion of natural rubber accounts for about 40% of the total cost of tire companies (average figures, and there are slight differences between the specific data for trucks and passenger car tire manufacturers). Taking the current Hujiao futures price of approximately RMB 22,000/ton (the spot price is relatively low), the tariff cut of RMB 400 corresponds to a change of approximately 1.8% per ton of natural rubber price, which corresponds to the total cost of tire enterprises. The degree of influence is only 0.7%. Moreover, from the perspective of the industry chain, foreign natural rubber suppliers may also take corresponding price increases, so the preferential policies for domestic tire companies will eventually be shared. As a whole, the impact of this tariff cut on the industry cost is very limited.
The turning point of profitability of the tire industry has been relatively certain. In the first three quarters of 2009, the tire industry quickly entered a highly booming cycle. The real driving factor was the difference in the frequency of changes in income and costs. The sharp drop in prices of natural rubber and crude oil has significantly reduced the cost pressure on the tire industry, while the recovery of the downstream auto and construction machinery industries has supported the demand side. The cost reduction is much higher than the price drop of tire products, pushing the overall gross margin of the industry to a high point. However, with the recovery of domestic and foreign economies, the prices of commodities have all increased significantly under the inflation expectations.
At present, the price per ton of Hujiao futures is roughly at 22,600 yuan, which is an increase of 84% and 51% from the average price of 12,300 yuan in the first quarter and 15,000 in the second quarter. Crude oil prices are roughly flat with the second quarter but still higher than the first quarter. About 40%. In addition, the steel prices in 2009 were relatively stable, but it is expected that there will be greater price increases in 2010, driven by the continued recovery of downstream auto, shipbuilding and construction machinery industries. The tire industry is expected to have felt the pressure of cost increase since the fourth quarter of 2009, and the profit turning point of the industry has emerged. Corresponding to the tire manufacturing companies, domestic tire listed companies are mainly loaded with heavy loads and engineering tires. The impact of special security sanctions is not significant, and the commercial vehicle industry in 2010 is still upbeat, but it is expected that the steady growth of demand will be difficult to offset. The negative impact of the rapid increase in cost.
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