 According to the data at the beginning of 2016, the subsidies for new energy vehicles and various preferential policies in the world are roughly equivalent to 100 billion yuan, while China accounts for more than half of them. According to the current development trend of new energy vehicles and the subsidy system, only the central government will need to pay up to 390 billion yuan for new energy vehicles during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
The huge subsidies for new energy vehicles can be imagined for the pressure of the central government. For many local governments, the subsidies are in fact almost impossible to afford. The purpose of subsidies is to increase consumers' willingness to purchase new energy vehicles when the new energy vehicle market fails, and to stimulate the industrialization and popularization of new energy vehicles. However, subsidies are also a necessary stage for emerging industries.
Backward slope - subsidy cancellation is the trend of the times
On December 30, 2016, just as the New Year is approaching, the State Department’s four ministries issued a “Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehiclesâ€. In this document, not only the upper limit and standard of central and local subsidies are set, but also the threshold for subsidies is raised. This is not only a further clarification of the imminent cancellation of subsidies, but also a policy response to frequent fraudulent incidents.
In the past, subsidies for new energy vehicles were based on the number of pure electric driving mileage. In the new version of the policy, in addition to the requirements for pure electric driving, the technical requirements for the maximum speed, battery energy density, power consumption of 100 kilometers, and fuel consumption of the plug-in hybrid vehicle in the mixed state are also added.
The reduction in subsidies and the tightening of technical requirements have undoubtedly affected the domestic new energy vehicle market in the first two months of this year. In January of this year, the new energy vehicle market experienced a 61% decline in the cliff-type decline. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the first two months fell by 8% year-on-year. Since many local governments' subsidy policies are not clear, and all new energy vehicles need to be re-published, the majority of automakers in the policy window have adopted the practice of limiting production and sales. The side reflects that the current sales of new energy vehicles are still mostly Subsidy is oriented.
Fighting - carbon quota or point system?
With the gradual decline and cancellation of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles , the establishment of a reasonable policy that is independent of subsidies and market-based mechanisms is of great significance for cultivating and promoting the development of new energy automobile industry.
But it seems that this time there is some urgency. In August and September 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology respectively issued the “Measures for the Management of Carbon Equity for New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Comment)†and the Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Enterprise Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points (Draft for Comment) . The common feature of both is that they have drawn on the California zero-emission vehicle policy that has been developed for many years and has considerable practical experience.
The core content of California's zero-emission vehicle policy is to delineate the total proportion of zero-emission vehicle sales, and then convert it into corresponding points, and distribute the tasks to each car company. Mandatory requirements for car companies must produce the specified quantity according to their own sales ratio. New energy vehicles, car companies that produce more new energy vehicles can sell excess points to car companies with insufficient points.
This policy not only mandatory the promotion of new energy vehicles, but also allows the sales of new energy vehicles without government subsidies, reducing the heavy burden on the government, and encouraging a number of emerging electric vehicle companies like Tesla.
Whether it is the “carbon quota†of the National Development and Reform Commission or the “point system†of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is based on the policy of California in an attempt to establish a new energy vehicle promotion and management system with Chinese characteristics. However, there seems to be no coordination between the two policies, and from the current issue of the text, in addition to the distinction between “quota†and “pointsâ€, in fact, there is no essential difference in the specific implementation methods.
There are two very similar policies in one field. The phenomenon of multiple political issues, the irregularity of regulations, and the inconsistency of implementation standards are likely to cause contradictions and loopholes in the implementation of policies. Even the worst case is The policy became empty.
Radical - many large car companies are difficult to complete indicators
Up to now, the carbon allowance policy has only established a framework for transactions, and has not solved the details. The most core calculation rules are still being formulated. The point system is more operability and is expected to drive implementation faster.
Taking the existing regulations of the point system as an example, the idea of ​​this method is based on the calculated gap formed by the total fuel consumption in a certain year in the future, replacing the traditional automobile fuel consumption between enterprises and the new energy vehicle integral. In this way, the overall fuel consumption meets the national energy strategy and technological progress requirements, while the development of new energy vehicles meets the industrial planning goals.
According to this method, new energy vehicles can obtain double discounts in fuel consumption points and new energy vehicle points, especially in the calculation of fuel consumption points, which can be directly calculated in 2-5 times. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2020, the sales volume of passenger cars in China will reach 26.5 million, including 1.75 million new energy passenger cars. The contribution of new energy vehicles to fuel consumption reduction can reach 1.3L/100km. This means that from the national requirements of 6.9/100km in 2015 to 5L/100km in 2020, the traditional car only needs to be reduced by 0.6L/100km, which greatly reduces the difficulty of reducing the fuel consumption of traditional cars. Therefore, the production of new energy vehicles is almost the best choice for future companies to achieve fuel consumption standards.
In terms of new energy vehicle credits, the actual integral value of the industry in 2016 is around 3%. When there is only one year left in 2018, it is required to reach 8% and the balance must be completed in the current year. It is very difficult for car companies that have not completed the layout of large and new energy automobile product lines.
Take the North and South Volkswagen as an example, its annual sales volume in China is about 2 million units, that is, it needs to sell 160,000 points of new energy vehicles by 2018. According to the average 3.5 points of each new energy vehicle, the sales of new energy vehicles must also be reached. Nearly 50,000 vehicles. However, until 2017, Volkswagen's share of the domestic new energy vehicle market is almost zero, which is not difficult to understand the intention of the public and Jianghuai joint venture to produce new energy vehicles.
Among the top five automakers in China, except for SAIC and SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng and GAC are obviously lagging behind in the layout of new energy vehicles. Under the current algorithm, they will face tremendous pressure.
The “first mover†of independent new energy represented by BYD, BAIC, Geely, Jianghuai, etc., after the implementation of the points system, may have a lot of surplus points. These points may be sold to new energy sources in some mainstream car companies in the future. ". Take BYD as an example. In 2016, BYD sold a total of 45,433 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 32,632 pure electric vehicles, which could generate 221,000 new energy points. After offsetting some of the fuel car points, there is still a lot of surplus.
On the contrary, the Great Wall, which is dominated by the production of SUVs and has no new energy vehicles, is quite unfavorable. The Great Wall sold a total of 1.07 million cars in 2016, all of which are gasoline and diesel. In the next two years, according to the annual output of millions of vehicles of Great Wall Motor, the fuel consumption points will be negative hundreds of thousands or even millions of points. Together with the current Great Wall new energy vehicle is still in its infancy, the new energy points will still be 0. In the future, it is necessary to add extra cost to the "buy points".
It was previously reported that the EU has negotiated on Beijing because of the strictness of China's new energy vehicle targets. The China Automobile Association also publicly stated that the existing indicators are too high, and it is difficult for car companies to complete. It is recommended to reduce the proportion of new energy vehicles. If the published policies are not changed, it is difficult for many large-scale auto companies to meet the required requirements. Is there a strange phenomenon that “the law does not blame the public� And if the revised policy is revised due to the pressure of the car companies, is there any doubt that the policy will be changed?
The future - where will new energy vehicles go?
Until now, the NDRC's carbon quota policy has only an outline and lacks substantive implementation requirements. The credit system policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was submitted to the WTO for notification in December last year. It was completed in February of this year and was implemented according to the plan in 2018, but the official documents have not yet been released. Multi-party games, exchange of various interests, so that the new energy vehicle policy may have to look forward to.
From the perspective of technology, car development strategy, market acceptance, etc., new energy vehicles are still the trend of the future automotive industry. However, at present, without subsidies, new energy vehicles are still difficult to obtain the market. High subsidies have spurred some “deformity†behind the “prosperous†new energy vehicle market in China in the past few years.
The “post-subsidy era†requires new policies for new energy vehicles. In today's market environment, with reference to the new energy vehicle policy of the developed countries in the world, whether it is carbon quota or point system, it is necessary for a department to coordinate planning and systematic thinking, and to come up with scientific, concrete and effective management methods to promote implementation. To reduce the overlap and interference between different policies and ensure the achievement of the overall goal.
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