Recently, according to recent economic data, the author judged that the heavy truck market should pick up. However, the heavy-duty truck sales in October and the reporter’s recent interviews with distributors in four places can be seen that the heavy truck market has not recovered. What's going on here? Is the heavy truck market warming up only on paper?
The author believes that from the economic data to the heavy truck market, it takes time.
Once again back to the end of November 2010, when the author judged from various economic data, the heavy truck market in the future will surely plummet. As a result, in December 2010 and January and February 2011, sales still went straight to the 100,000 mark. It was only after March that it began to gradually cool down. In fact, this is mainly due to the time required for the transmission mechanism of the economy. From the economic data to the national decision-making process, it takes time from the national decision-making to the change of economic policy. It will also take time for further transmission to monetary and fiscal policies. Finally, it will take time to increase investment, logistics, transportation to users and distributors, and finally to heavy truck business orders.
It takes time for the market to pick up
According to past experience, the time for this transmission may be about three months. For example, at the end of October 2008, the country introduced a 4 trillion stimulus policy. The heavy-duty truck industry did not improve in October and November of 2008. It began to improve in December, began to pick up in January 2009, began to grow wildly in February 2009, and in March it was an order of magnitude of 100,000 units.
Similarly, in November 2010, according to various economic data, the author judged that the country will weaken fixed-asset investment and change extremely loose monetary policy. In December of that year, the state made it clear at the Central Economic Work Conference that the monetary policy had been changed to a sound one, and then began a series of measures to shrink loans and investments. However, the heavy-duty truck industry was still unusually hot in December 2010 and January and February 2011. It did not cool until March, but it was still feverish.
Judging from a series of economic data in October this year, the economy, investment, exports, and production are all bottoming out and stabilizing. However, this situation is transmitted to the heavy-duty truck industry. If it takes three months, then the heavy-duty truck market will follow around the Spring Festival next year. There should be a good performance.
In addition, although the data for October was not very good, the news that the reporter obtained from Shaanxi Auto was that orders had increased significantly. On November 15th, on the day of the SAIC Iveco Hongyan, the author visited 10 large customers in a day. These people were all invariable, not Hongyan’s invitation. The reception task of big customers has made Hongyan’s high-level, middle-level and even the team’s drivers busy.
In addition to the signs of recovery in various data in October, the recent information obtained from various aspects is basically good for the heavy truck market. For example, in November, the Ministry of Railways restarted the bidding. This is the first time since 2010, the Ministry of Railways organized the bidding work for EMUs; for example, some media disclosed that from January to October, the total national fiscal expenditure was 9273.6 billion yuan. The fiscal expenditure budget is estimated at 12,430 billion yuan, which means that as of October there are still more than 3,154 billion yuan of budget to spend, plus 900 billion yuan this year, which means that in the last two months of the fiscal year, it is expected to surprise the flowering. 4 trillion (how familiar 4 trillion ah).
The author estimates that the November and December data in the heavy truck market will not be as ugly as in September and October, and the heavy truck market at the beginning of next year is worth looking forward to. When I chatted with a dealer in a dealership in Dezhou, Shandong, he not only told the reporter that he felt that the market was picking up. It was even more surprising: “The heavy truck market may blowout in the Spring Festival next year.â€
In the near future, the author will closely follow various economic data and use this to determine the likelihood of blowouts for the Spring Festival next year.
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