How many cars can we carry in the end?

CFP

"Let the tail go, suck the tail off." At 8 o'clock on the morning of September 16, Aunty's daughter, who was only 1 year old, muttered and pushed out. "If it wasn't for the children, we really didn't want to take the children out. There were too many cars and the road was blocked. The sudden smoke was not good for the children."

On the same day, the data released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security showed that as of the end of August 2011, the number of motor vehicles in the country reached 219 million vehicles. Among them, car ownership exceeded 100 million vehicles for the first time, accounting for 45.88% of the total number of motor vehicles. It is the main component of motor vehicles.

With the ever-increasing car ownership, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have all suffered from “big city disease,” and even some second and third-tier cities are currently facing a series of problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. People should not only ask how many cars can China carry?

The traffic jam was utterly frightening. On July 11th, Guiyang City issued the “Provisional Regulations on the Administration of the Numbering of Minibuses for Passenger Cars in Guiyang City”, which became the second city in China to purchase cars after Beijing. The purchase of Guiyang is seen as a turning point in the development of the automotive industry in China's second, third and even third and fourth tier cities.

Although some people have pointed out that “restricting purchases is the most stupid way to stop a blockade”, it is an indisputable fact that the reason why traffic congestion is important is the fact that traffic congestion is very important. Reporters from the unit to the home outside the North Fourth Ring Road, Baidu map shows a driving record of 16 kilometers, the reporter has a night shift at some time, at 1 o'clock in the morning to drive home more than 20 minutes, but during the day, how to get 40 minutes, Not to mention the morning and evening rush hour.

It is reported that before the implementation of the purchase restriction in Beijing, the daily congestion time was as long as five hours, and the convenience brought by the car was almost completely offset by traffic jams, and people complained about traffic congestion. In the afternoon of June 23, the largest rainfall in a decade has caused all traffic in Beijing to collapse, and the road has almost become a parking lot.

Nowadays, not only is the first-tier cities such as Kitshangese Guangzhou-Shenzhen deeply congested, but many second- and third-tier cities are also plunged into the quagmire of urban traffic congestion. How to solve this problem has become the most important issue that needs to be solved in the development of these cities.

In this regard, insiders pointed out that the increase in vehicles is an important cause of traffic congestion, but no matter which country and region, the speed of development of vehicles far exceeds the expansion speed of the road, the level of urban planners and managers is also the status of urban traffic The main determinants. "Followingly, the human factor is still the first. If you do not solve this problem well, simply holding the car to talk more will only make the contradiction more and more tangled."

At present, more and more prefecture-level cities have listed “building an international metropolis” as a development target. At the same time, as the first-tier cities gradually become saturated, almost all automobile manufacturers will turn their attention to the second- and third-tier cities. The transfer and development of second-tier and third-tier cities is a general trend.

The statistics that oil was eaten by cars showed that the average global car ownership last year was 1:6.75, which means that there were 1 car for every 6.75 people. In the United States, the ratio is 1:1.3; in France, Japan, and the United Kingdom, the ratio is approximately 1:1.7; in China, the ratio is approximately 1:17.2. At present, the per capita possession of China is far below the average level, but the rapidly increasing car ownership has exerted tremendous pressure on domestic fuel supply. If China’s thousand-person car ownership reaches the United States, oil supplies from the world cannot be afforded.

Zhang Guobao, director of the National Energy Commission’s expert advisory committee, said recently that during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the newly added domestic refining capacity was eaten by the newly added vehicles. The annual increase in oil consumption due to car growth reaches 30 million tons. Energy pressure is constraining the sustainable development of China's auto industry.

Fu Yuwu, executive vice president and secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, believes that the development of private cars in China cannot be repeated in the United States with large displacements and large-scale developments. It is necessary to vigorously develop energy-saving vehicles, adhere to the principles of miniaturization and lightweighting, and reduce the number of bicycles. Fuel consumption.

In addition, Professor Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University said in an interview with a reporter from the Science and Technology Daily that 2020 is an important turning point in the automotive industry in China. The next 10 years will be an important turning point. Before 2020, the automobile industry will mainly rely on energy conservation. Starting in 2020, the emerging energy power system will play a significant role.

Emissions can not stay in the slogan, "Do you smoke that big smoke, can not pollute the environment?" Aunt said a lot of people feel.

In fact, environmental issues associated with the shortage of oil resources are also a major problem at present. Statistics show that at present, about one-fifth of the country’s cities have serious atmospheric pollution, and over one-third of the 113 key cities’ air quality falls short of national secondary standards. Motor vehicle emissions have become a major source of atmospheric pollution in some large and medium-sized cities. .

Corresponding to it is a large displacement, the continuous expansion of the luxury car lineup. In this year's sharp downturn in the auto market, the luxury car market still maintains a high growth rate, an increase of up to 40%, which is an increase of 8 times over the entire passenger car market. Among them, Audi completed sales of nearly 140,000 vehicles, an increase of 35%; and BMW and Mercedes sales also reached 121,600 and 95,000 vehicles, an increase of 60.8% and 59%. The ultra-luxury brands such as Porsche, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Bugatti increased by 115.8% in the first half of the year.

According to Ouyang Minggao's prediction, the automobile industry will have a growth rate of approximately 7% to 10% from 2011 to 2015; the growth rate from 2015 to 2020 will be approximately 5% to 7%. At present, China’s production and sales volume has exceeded 100 million. In 2020, China’s automobile production and sales volume will be between 32 million and 41 million vehicles, and the vehicle ownership will be 300 million. Prior to this, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Department of the National Information Center, also stated that in the future, China's top car will have an annual sales volume of 30 million vehicles, with a maximum car ownership of 450 million vehicles. The resulting environmental problems will become more prominent.

On the one hand, the city is almost embarrassed because of traffic problems. Environmental pollution has threatened the survival and health of mankind. On the one hand, large-displacement, high-pollution luxury vehicles are leading the entire auto market. Such discord may continue for many years. While we expect the government to make a difference, we must not stop energy saving and emission reduction in the slogan.