The focus of the car industry is the depletion of repressed consumer demand, or the indirect effects of macro-control—
Even under the strict control of the scale of auto show sales, the number of visitors to the Beijing auto show this year has easily exceeded 460,000. However, in stark contrast to the hot Beijing auto show is the decline in the auto market growth since April this year.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the month of April, which was defined as the peak of traditional car purchases, the number of cars sold in the country was 221 thousand, which was a decrease of 2.72% from the sales in March. In 2003, this figure was an increase. 6.5%.
The auto market in May made manufacturers feel new competitive pressure. According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of cars in the country each completed 21.03 million cars and 177,700 vehicles in May, with a production and sales rate of 84.50%. Compared with the previous month, the sales ratio fell by 13.56% and 19.27% ​​respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, the production and sales volume increased by 28.02% and 18.82% respectively. It is worth noting that the sales growth of the sedan in May was below 20% year-on-year, which was the first time in two years.
As a result, the auto market "inflection point" and the auto market into a "bottom" began to spread in the industry. So, what should be seen about the slowdown in the auto market, and how will the momentum of the strong growth of the Chinese auto market change?
Growth debate
How to look at the rapid growth of China's auto industry after China's accession to the WTO can be described as benevolent and wise. However, one widely accepted view is that with the sustained and stable GDP growth, the annual income of our residents has crossed the $1,000 mark, and in the developed parts of the eastern coast, the per capita GDP has exceeded 3,000 to 5,000 US dollars. This indicates that China has begun to enter the automobile society, and the automobile has become a new growth point for consumption in China.
However, recently, some people have raised doubts about the view that the growth of per capita GDP has shaken the auto market. They believe that the growth of more than 50% of the sedan market for two consecutive years is actually a concentrated release of consumer demand that was suppressed before China’s accession to the WTO, and it is a “make up†type of growth. The auto market since April shows that when the release period is nearing its end, the growth momentum of auto consumption will start to be controlled by the growth of disposable income, and the auto market will therefore return from concentrated outbreak growth to rational consumption.
A research report from Shenyin Wanguo also believes that the growth of GDP exceeding 8% and the per capita disposable income of around 10% is not the main reason why the car market exceeds 50% for two consecutive years. The slight adjustment in the price of cars and the current state of the consumer environment also hardly stimulate such a high growth rate. The main reason supporting the rapid growth of production and sales of cars in the past two years is the change in consumer attitudes, which has led to a rapid increase in the proportion of 15 million households whose annual income exceeds 50,000 yuan to purchase cars. This kind of individual consumption behavior caused by the change of concept has a very strong uncertainty, and its direct result is to reduce the accuracy of the short-term expectations of the automotive market.
How big is the policy influence?
The slowdown in the growth of the auto market cannot ignore the role of macro-control. Zeng Qinghong, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Honda, believes that although the automobile industry was eventually excluded from the industry where the country clearly defined overheating, the macro-control measures have had an indirect impact on the auto market. The first is to reduce the number and scale of projects and reduce the growth of official and commercial vehicles that are driven by this; the second is to eliminate zero down payment for new car loans, pay the difference between car prices, implement floating premiums, and limit the number of insurance companies providing services. , And the down payment for car loans must reach 30%, strict inspection of guarantee conditions, etc., which raises the threshold for car loans and inhibits car consumption.
In addition, the rise in oil prices in the macroeconomic environment, as well as factors such as traffic jams in the automobile consumption environment, difficulties in parking, and excessive use costs, have also inhibited the further increase in the auto market. The business center of the Beijing Asian Games Village Automobile Exchange Market and Xiaogang pointed out that the gradual decline in vehicle prices is now a general trend. However, the change in the cost of vehicles is unknown. No one can tell how much will change in a year or two, but from In general, everyone feels this upward trend.
Of course, there is also a sensitive reason that the consumer's expectation of a reduction in the price of the car has led to the holding of money. The elimination of tariff quotas in 2005 and the reduction of tariffs in 2006, although the consideration of various VAT and consumption tax factors and other non-tariff barrier measures, the impact of imported cars on domestic cars is not as large as it seems. However, the promise of accession to the WTO The psychological impact of honoring consumers cannot be ignored.
In the past, whenever the auto market showed signs of fatigue, price cuts became a good strategy for manufacturers to “save the marketâ€. However, frequent price cuts also lifted consumer appetites. A survey showed that the proportion of intentional consumers who bought cars during the year fell compared to last year, and many respondents placed the purchase plan for the next year.
Slower growth does not mean that there is no high growth
"Strong growth does not mean that it will maintain a 40% growth rate." GM China CEO Murphy believes that in 10 years or so, the Chinese auto market will continue to maintain twice the growth rate of GDP growth. Of course, there will certainly be a rise and fall in the middle. From this perspective, 4 The slowdown in the growth of the auto market since the month is normal and healthy. It is definitely not the “inflection point†of the auto market, but only a trough in the growth of volatility.
Wu Yanfeng, general manager of First Automobile Group Corporation, believes that although the growth of the auto market has slowed down in recent months, “I think absolute growth will remain, and it will even last for quite a long time.†Yan Yanfeng said that in 5 years or even longer Time, the auto market growth remained at 13% -18% is still very sure.
In view of the industry’s optimistic expectations for the future growth of the Chinese auto market, Dr. Wei Zhibo, Vice President of the Volkswagen Group, agreed that “China’s economic growth will remain at a high level of 7%-8.5% in the next 5 to 10 years. It will surpass Japan as the world's second-largest auto market, which is also the reason why Volkswagen invested 5.3 billion Euros in 2008 to increase its production capacity in China to 1.6 million vehicles."
The president of Citroën Satyne also stated that although the Chinese auto market, especially the car market, is unlikely to show more than 50% growth in the previous two years, he remains optimistic about the market's prospects. “Development will not be stable, but high growth will remain. Will continue."
The latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers confirm the views of automobile executives. Although the growth rate of the auto market has declined since April, in the first five months of this year, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 2,256,400 units and 2,171,800 units, respectively, an increase of 28.09% and 27.57% respectively year-on-year. Among them, the car produced and sold 1.305 million units and 966,800 units, an increase of 39.36% and 37.68% respectively. Whether it is the automobile market or the car market, sales growth of 27.57% and 37.68% year-on-year is still a high growth rate that is enough for other countries to envy.
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