China's agricultural modernization faces major opportunities, and technological innovation is the primary factor

China's agricultural modernization faces major opportunities Science and technology innovation is the primary factor

As early as the end of the 20th century, the scientist Qian Xuesen once said in his proposal to General Secretary Jiang Zemin about China's agricultural development: "We have implemented the strategy of developing the western region in the 21st century, and the natural starting point is high. So I proposed the sand industry, grass industry and The forest industry emphasizes knowledge-intensive, and modern science and technology, including biotechnology and information technology, must be used, and industrialization should be formed from the beginning to form a one-stop production, processing and sales, and pay attention to comprehensive utilization. On the basis of the small-scale peasant economy, it is impossible to spontaneously move toward agricultural industrialization; the fundamental driving force of China's agricultural modernization lies in the process of technological innovation, industrialization and the modernization of China as a whole. To this end, it must adhere to the 'five-driven conditions of technological innovation. Implement modern agricultural systems engineering on the basis of 'industry and agriculture, urban and rural areas, government and farmers, modern technology and agricultural technology, Industrial and commercial enterprises and individual farmers.'

1. Science and technology innovation is the primary factor affecting agricultural modernization

Qian Xuesen once said that high-tech industrialized agriculture must be combined with industrial, economic, trade and service industries to achieve factory management of agricultural production. The small towns thus developed have greatly narrowed the gap between industry and agriculture and between cities and townships. This is also the inevitable result of the information technology revolution and the biotechnology revolution.

The practice of China's economic development over half a century has proved that in the era of rapid and full flow of modern information, technology, capital, and resources, through the entry of huge external resources, and the orderly combination of internal superior resources, rapid accumulation, regional, industrial The "new growth pole", which in turn drives the new normal of industry and economic development in the region, has replaced the slow path of economic development relying on self-accumulation.

Similarly, Chinese agriculture must have a new way out and must rely fully on technological innovation. Let modern industries, science and technology, resources, policies, and capital elements enter the traditional agricultural field, fundamentally upgrade traditional agriculture, and establish new types of property rights-industry-interest relations and production organization. This is the modern agricultural systems engineering.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' 2014 Statistical Report on National Economic and Social Development, China's rural population is 6.1886 billion, accounting for 45.23% of the country's total population. In recent years, due to the rapid urbanization process, the huge demand for migrant workers, coupled with the relative reduction of agricultural income, the relatively low price of international agricultural products, and the unfavorable factors such as land pollution, make a considerable part of the rural population, especially rural young adults. Leave the land to work in the city. The output value of China's 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land is not compatible with the fast-growing Chinese economy, and even runs counter to it.

In addition, there are 1.6 billion mu of Gobi desert in the northwest of China, which is ridiculous because of drought and water shortage. There are 4.2 billion mu of grassland in China, and the output value per mu is less than 1 yuan.

With the rapid development of science and technology in recent years, especially the agricultural-related technological innovations, renewed opportunities for agricultural development. We have seen that although the desert has the disadvantages of drought and water shortage, the long sunshine hours, large temperature difference between day and night, and small environmental pollution are extremely favorable conditions for high agricultural yield. Since 1994, Zhangye and Inner Mongolia have practiced the theory of Qianxuesensha industry in 1994, applied science and technology to solve problems such as desert drought and water shortage, successfully developed sand industry and grass industry, and created “multi-lighting, less water, and new technology in practice”. The technology route of the sand industry has achieved great results. The food is more self-sufficient, and the vegetable and melon fruit is sold and exported. It also drives the development of a number of processing enterprises.

With the continuous promotion of scientific and technological innovation to the development of agriculture, China's 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land, there are 1.6 billion mu of desert equivalent to arable land and 4.2 billion mu of grassland nearly 2.5 times the area of ​​cultivated land, in the near future It has become a new important growth point for China's agricultural industrialization development and even China's modernization.

Second, the major development opportunities facing China's agricultural modernization

The fundamental driving force for China's agricultural modernization is technological innovation and China's modernization process and industrialization process. Influential factors of technological innovation and capital innovation include the following aspects.

1. International Science and Technology - New Energy System - The Rise of New Industrial System

For more than half a century, the world has entered the white-hot stage of energy competition. The military revolution, resource war, scientific and technological revolution, and scientific and technological competition that have been carried out in this way have promoted the accelerated development of new energy systems in developed countries in Europe and the United States, and it is possible to create new energy systems and use them as a basis in the past 15 years. New industrial system. In the future, the core industries such as the aerospace industry, the new energy locomotive industry, the aircraft industry, and the robot industry will be greatly developed, driving modern industry into a new era of high technology. This will have a broad and profound impact on the entire world, including China and about 80% of agricultural countries that are moving towards industrialization.

Under the influence of the new energy-industry revolution, the construction of the world's energy and emerging industrial industrial systems will gradually move toward high technology, information and lightness. Among them, “lightweight” refers to the gradual increase of the proportion of light industries in industry, GDP and overall economic development. It first appeared in the United States in the 1970s and has now become a major trend in industrial modernization. This trend is concentrated in the following: the traditional heavy physical capital consumed by the industry for every $1,000 of GDP is declining, such as coal, steel, wood, chemical raw materials, cement, etc.; new, light, such as hydropower, nuclear, oil, natural gas And the content of intellectual knowledge services is relatively increasing. This trend is also reflected in China, where China's GDP is “lighter”.

According to the prediction of experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China is currently experiencing such a process, that is to say, light energy is gradually becoming the basis of China's industrial system, and China's industrial modernization is also moving toward a new stage of the world's energy-industry system. Looking back at the slow process of China's agricultural modernization under this new situation, we must not feel a huge pressure.

2. China's science and technology - industrial innovation and a new round of economic cycle peak

Ten years ago, experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences concentrated on science and economic sociology conducted an analysis and forecast of China's technology-industry development in the next 20 years. The conclusion is that around 2016, there will be a technological innovation and industrial innovation in our country. . China's future high-tech industries, especially new energy, information technology, new materials, biomedicine, water-saving modern agriculture and other important positions; another major scientific and technological breakthroughs in hundreds of classification technologies, resulting in China's industry A major turnaround and a new revolution.

This background will undoubtedly provide strong technical support for China's agricultural modernization. At present, China's urbanization development is entering the second stage of the "anti-urbanization" movement. In the process of this re-allocation of urban industrial resources, a large number of clustered industrial capitals and related large enterprises are moving to the periphery of large cities and second- and third-category cities. Some industrial enterprises have realized the transfer, injection, infiltration and reorganization of industries, capitals, technologies and production methods in the agricultural sector through the establishment of new industrial chains and industrial clusters with agricultural industrial resources, thus realizing the modernization of traditional agriculture, rural areas and farmers. Transform and upgrade. There are precedents in many areas of China, especially in the advanced areas of agricultural industrialization in the east.

3. "Light three high" industry and "three high-speed logistics" become new productivity factors

Under the above background, China's new industrial system will show the characteristics of “light three high” industrial development. The so-called "light three high" is actually a high-tech, high value-added and high market turnover rate that is also manifested in both light industrialization.

Nowadays, the “light three high” industry is booming not only in the eastern region but also in the western region. At the same time, “three high-speed logistics” is becoming a new type of productivity. In the 18th century, modern transportation belonged to the era of seaport transportation. In the 19th century, it belonged to the era of railway transportation. In the 20th century, it was marked by the expressway. In the 21st century, the modern logistics industry continued to advance by means of transportation, which pushed modern logistics into high-speed rail. The "three high-speed logistics" era armed by the Internet of Things, including highways and aviation. This "three high-speed logistics" transforms the physical spatial distance into a time distance, closes the market elements of the long-distance space distance, promotes the rapid gathering of economic resources, and forms a new industrial chain, industrial cluster, industrial circle and huge industry. Energy, nurturing new productivity and new “growth poles” in regional cities. “Three high-speed logistics” is no longer just a simple transportation service industry, but is becoming an important part of new productivity and strategic emerging industries. In a certain sense, it can be said that "three high-speed logistics" is becoming the "fourth industry" that combines the secondary and tertiary industries.

As a new type of productivity factor, the “light three high” industry and “three high-speed logistics” have also become a new type of power and tools to promote agricultural transformation and upgrading by upgrading the technological and economic level of modern industry.

Third, OTO promotes agricultural modernization model

Reengineering and path innovation

The so-called "OTO" is the abbreviation of "Online To Offline", that is, "online to offline". The core is to bring online consumers to the real store, and to pay for the goods and services under the online purchase. Go to the line and enjoy the service.

The OTO model is a new type of logistics that is built using modern information technology. This new business model has led to a new “alignment” between the retail industry and the banks, and with the help of modern transportation, it has begun to fundamentally transform the traditional market economy model established by the Western world. The new market relationship with the OTO model as the prototype is gradually being established. This is a milestone event for the modern information network technology to enter the traditional trade logistics industry on a large scale. Its direct economic and social values ​​are embodied in:

The first is to improve the economic benefits of trade circulation and reduce the tax burden and corporate burden. This model has changed the traditional multi-level, multi-link, long-distance, multi-replacement, long-storage inefficient mode, "production-supply (transport)-sale-financial settlement" and other information, security, and quick It is economical, humanized, diversified and integrated, realizing the low cost and benefit of trade and commerce.

The second is to promote the flattening of the structure of trade and circulation organizations. Through the OTO mode, the transfer method of multi-level wholesale to multi-level retail has been changed.

The third is a major adjustment in the employment structure in the trade and circulation sector. The disappearance of a large number of intermediate trade links and the expansion of direct sales demand will inevitably lead to changes in the structure of labor employment and new forms of labor transfer.

The fourth is to promote the equalization of social and economic relations. The new model will help break the monopoly of the industry and the division of the system, and promote the equalization of social and economic relations and market trading relationships.

More importantly, the OTO model is used to correct the market industry and the era of the times that have been misled by the “smile curve”.

For centuries, the unequal colonial division of labor system and excess profits have not only led to the “aristocratization of the working class” and the “parasitic high-profit welfare” of the colonial empire for nearly two centuries, but also with scientific and technological progress, knowledge economy and the West. The combination of socialist fairness theory promotes Western developed countries to move toward "welfare socialization," virtual economy, and even service economy. In this process, in many countries, the “business value chain” demonstrated by the “smile curve” has been promoted to “market-industry value chain”, further strengthening the misalignment of “de-economy” in recent decades. The vicious expansion of the virtual and welfare economy has caused or exacerbated the "magic of the great era."

The emergence of the OTO model has re-enacted the main position of the real economy and modern manufacturing, processing industries and productive industries including agriculture in the market value chain and modern industry, and has become a worldwide phenomenon of modern information technology to traditional economic systems. The challenge. What is important is that this commercial circulation, market operation mode innovation and the aforementioned world China's technology-industry innovation (including “light three high” industry and “three high-speed logistics”) have developed the modernization of China's agricultural industrialization. Two new paths.

First, the penetration of information network organizations in the circulation of trade and commerce has promoted the modernization of agriculture. The online and offline circulation mode of OTO mode has completely broken the traditional agricultural trade circulation organization system. In the field of agricultural commodity circulation in which informationization has entered, it is beginning to combine upstream production terminals (such as individual farmers) into members of the corporate business network. The success of many large-scale agricultural trade enterprises is not due to the huge economic benefits obtained by using the OTO model, but to create an industrial organization penetration through information network commerce and trade, and promote individual agriculture to intensification, scale, and enterprise. A new path to industrialization.

In the re-engineering of the agricultural trade circulation organization system, this kind of agricultural production unit is incorporated into the modern market circulation network through the information network, realizing the modernization and upgrading of agriculture – it can be called the “modern agricultural industrialization revolution” and will become the future of China. A development path and direction of agriculture.

The second is to upgrade the industrialization of traditional agriculture from the production and operation links. In the 1980s, the booming township enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces promoted the construction of small towns in China and the transformation of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and had a strong impact on the “dual structure” of urban and rural China. This can be seen as a primary revolution in the modernization of China's modern agriculture.

In recent years, some large-scale enterprises have dispersed the individual farmer households and their land, facilities, and forestry and animal husbandry resources into the network organization of modern industrial enterprises through the technology network, so that individual farmers become “network agricultural industrial workers” and disperse the tradition. The individual small-scale peasant economy has become a "network agriculture-industrial industry", making the backward rural areas become "network agricultural communities", and finally forming a new type of "agricultural industrial network industrial chain" and a new type of "agricultural labor network alliance enterprise". This new type of "agricultural network alliance enterprise" may become an intermediate organization and intermediate bridge between traditional agriculture and industrialization and modern agriculture. This kind of innovation through agricultural industry and industrial organization innovation has not only emerged in the eastern region but also in the western region, such as the Chinese tobacco industry. At present, China Tobacco Corporation and its regional organizations have gradually integrated individual tobacco farmers into the tobacco production network, using bar code technology to organize traditional scattered individual tobacco farmers into a “workshop” for Chinese tobacco.

This "agricultural industrialization organization revolution" and the production relationship revolution triggered by the network-structure of agricultural-industrial industrial organization relations have established a new type of property rights-industry-interest relationship, which will strongly influence the individual production structure of agricultural upgrading and upgrading, and promote agriculture. The concentration and concentration of production resources further promote the networking and matrixization of production organizations, and then move toward intensive, enterprise, group, modern enterprise institutionalization, and finally move toward modern industrial industrialization. From the field of production, we have opened another new road for China's agricultural modernization.

This is an "agricultural network industry revolution" in which China's agriculture is going to industrialization, and it is an "intermediate revolution" in China's agricultural industrialization.

It is foreseeable that with the penetration of modern technological innovation and OTO model into various industrial fields, it will also trigger a series of new agricultural industrial revolutions. Once this kind of agricultural industry revolution is coordinated and integrated, and it is going to be large-scale, systematic, standardized, socialized, and institutionalized, China's agriculture will move toward the "revolutionary" stage of industrialization.

These two roads are different from the marketization and capitalization of agricultural resources (especially land). They are different from the commercialization and marketization of traditional agriculture. The latter is about making property rights. The first two are from the production and management. The latter is the beginning of the distribution of rights and interests. The first two are from the production-production mode of production. They start from the circulation and production and management links and enter the production field to transform the industrialization of traditional agriculture. The significance is also fundamental and overall. Strategic. It can be said that these two are another major path revolution in the modernization of China's agriculture, and a new milestone in the agricultural industry revolution triggered by the information technology revolution.

(Wang Haiyuan, Lecturer of Xijing College; Unit Zhuang, Dean of Xi'an Chaohua Management Science Research Institute, Vice President of National Policy Science Research Association; Bai Yunfan, Researcher and Deputy Director of Beijing Center of Qian Xuesen Research Center.)

(Original title: Technology Innovation: New Opportunities for China's Agricultural Modernization)