Analysis of Development Trend of Engineering Machinery Industry

According to the analysis, the construction machinery industry experienced the expectation of fighting in the first quarter, the second quarter, and the bearish outlook in the third quarter in 2012. At present, the domestic construction machinery industry has no shortage of funds but lacks funds. It does not matter how hard it is. In the first few months of the Spring Festival, for high-leverage industries (whether financial leverage or operating leverage), overdue rises and capital chain tensions will continue to be accompanied. If the policy does not come out, this year will not be too good.

Judging from the current situation, the start-up rates in October and November are still expected to be weak, and companies will further advance between prepayments and receivables. The good news is that in the third quarter we gradually saw a downward shift in production, and the overall inventory situation will improve ( Due to weak demand, the downward movement is limited. However, the capacity elimination is currently a pseudo-category, and it is difficult to have a large-scale exit before May 2013. However, if demand continues to weaken, there will be a wave of passive de-leveraging at the end of the year, resulting in a short-term bottom and bearish window period. In the second quarter of 2013, it will be judged whether the active de-levering tide will occur.

Railway equipment: Although the national railway fixed asset investment of 630 billion yuan was still under pressure during the year, it is more likely to be considered from the perspective of stable economic infrastructure. The average monthly investment in railway fixed assets in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 95.3 billion yuan, compared to last year. The fourth quarter increased by 50% year-on-year, benefiting the railway equipment sector; in addition, considering the demand level, the EMU trains, locomotives, and trucks bidding in the second half of the year will be highly probable events. Therefore, it is recommended that attention be paid to the increased completion of railway fixed asset investment and the bidding of vehicle equipment to enhance the valuation of railway segment companies. In particular, railway component companies with high performance elasticity are advised to pay attention to Times New Materials, Xinzhu Construction and Jinyi Industry.

Parts and other machinery: Affected by policy adjustments and investment holdings, the market demand for the general parts sub-sector in the fourth quarter is fluctuating or slowly recovering at the bottom, but the recovery in demand may lead to higher raw material prices and the supply side to inventory process. Slow down. In addition, the year-on-year growth of accounts receivable has also rebounded, and the industry will also face greater risk of sales collection.