Abstract: China's automobile manufacturing industry is now in a period of rapid development. From the current point of view, the increase in the number of cars in our country has exceeded the demand for cars from our residents, resulting in excess capacity for cars. However, at the same time, China is also a developing country. The ownership of automobiles is much lower than that of developed countries and even lower than some developing countries. There are many reasons for the current car surplus in China. The article analyzes some of them and puts forward some countermeasures. 1 Analysis of the causes of excess cars in China 1.1 China's economic development is lagging behind China is a developing country. Although China’s economic strength has been greatly improved after more than two decades of reform and opening up, China’s economic foundation is weak. With a large population, compared with Western developed countries, there is a big gap in China's economic development level. The country’s total national economy is huge, and its economy is developing rapidly. Compared with developed countries, it has developed rapidly. However, we can also see that due to the large population of our country, there is a big gap between the per capita GDP and the developed countries. Because China's economic aggregate is huge, it shows that our country's automobile market is huge, and the purchasing power of residents has risen significantly. But overall, the overall purchasing power of our residents is still low. As a high-end luxury goods, automobiles still do not have the conditions to enter millions of households in China. 1.2 China's backward infrastructure construction First, our urban planning standards are too low, and the urban planning structure is irrational, leading to urban traffic congestion. According to the standard, the per capita area of ​​the city is 100m2, while the foreign country is generally 150m2, but the vast majority of cities in this standard are far from reachable. The proportion of land occupied by urban roads is 15% in China and 25% in foreign countries. Except that Beijing exceeds 10%, most cities in China are below 10%. Many urban constructions are not based on functional area planning and construction, but extend in a plane and the road structure is irrational. Too low urban planning standards not only lead to urban traffic congestion, but also lead to urban parking difficulties. The parking time of a car is much longer than the time it takes to run on the road, so parking or static traffic is an important part of urban infrastructure construction. However, for a long time, insufficient attention has been paid to the issue of parking lots in urban construction in China. The understanding of parking issues lags behind the development speed of vehicles. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the current parking berths in the major cities account for far less than the international level. The confusion in management and the unreasonable parking lot setting have artificially exacerbated the difficulty of parking in various cities. Second, there are serious structural defects in the urban road network in our city. A country with a private car developed must be a country with developed urban public transport. Well-developed public transportation can greatly reduce traffic jams and leave room for private cars. The proportion of the population of the world’s metropolitan public transport systems is between 50% and 60%, while the proportion of public transport in China is less than 30%. Many of the trips rely on bicycles and motorcycles. The data shows that in cities with a higher degree of motorization in the world, their rail transit volume accounts for more than 50% of the total bus traffic, and some of them exceed 70%. The rail transit network, which is dotted, effectively relieves the traffic pressure brought about by the dense population. China's urban public transport mainly relies on automobiles. For example, the current rail transit line in Shanghai is only 65 kilometers in length. Tokyo's rail transit line is nearly 2000 kilometers, and the optical metro line is more than 200 kilometers. In Beijing, residents use subways less than 15% of the total bus fleet. In Shanghai, the daily traffic volume of rail transit accounts for only a tenth of the passenger flow. 1.3 Overheated investment in China's auto industry. The scale of production is small, and the repeated construction is serious. In recent years, the demand for the automotive market in China has grown at a rapid rate, and the development of the automotive industry shows a good trend of speed, quality, and efficiency. However, under the stimulating demand from the domestic auto market, the investment in automobile manufacturing and automobile service trade has expanded rapidly. Many departments, localities, and companies have used the automobile industry as the leading industry for economic growth. In recent years, there have been hundreds of billions. Yuan invests in the automotive industry. There are 23 provinces and cities in China that produce cars. However, from a worldwide perspective, the traditional automobile market has become saturated, and the production capacity of major multinational automobile companies has been excessively severe and the competition is fierce. In order to adapt to this competitive situation, the development of the global automotive industry shows new trends: First, large-scale mergers and reorganizations in the international arena, expanding the scale of enterprises, increasing market concentration; second, accelerating technological innovation, producing high-end products, and adapting to current social development The request. However, China’s auto construction is still a low level of repeated construction. The organizational structure of China's auto industry is significantly behind that of the international community. Last year, there were 123 vehicle manufacturers in 27 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The number of automakers in China is more than the sum of automakers in all other countries in the world, but the total annual output of all automakers in China is lower than the annual output of a Japanese Toyota company. In China, there are only two companies with an annual output of more than 500,000 vehicles, and there are only eight companies with more than 100,000 vehicles. There are 95 companies with a production capacity of less than 10,000 vehicles and 70 of them have a production capacity of less than 1,000 vehicles. This kind of low-level redundant construction in China's auto industry has caused China's current auto production to fail to achieve scale efficiency, and the cost of auto production has always been too high. In addition, due to the use of the automobile industry as a pillar industry in their provinces, and in order to develop their own automobile industry and avoid threatening the province’s automobile production, the provinces will inevitably have some short-sighted behavior and cannot predict the consequences of excessive investment. Some unreasonable policies to restrict the province's cars into the province. This also limits China's car consumption. 1.4 China's auto finance is lagging, and personal credit problems are serious. Auto consumption credit and its guarantee insurance face difficulties. At the end of 1998, after the domestic insurance companies launched automobile consumer loan guarantee insurance, the auto consumption loan business showed a rapid growth trend, and it also expanded the business development space for the domestic insurance industry. However, behind the boom in auto consumer credit and its guaranteed insurance market, its hidden high risks are beginning to show up. This risk is mainly due to malicious borrowings of some borrowers (about 30% of borrowers in the auto consumer credit business are not repaying on time) and premeditated fraud, resulting in the current auto consumption credit and guarantee insurance policy being in a difficult position. Follow. The current problems in China's auto credit mainly include: the personal credit system has not yet been established; there are many problems in the system of guarantees and insurance; too few lending institutions and the number of vehicles supported by loans; the conditions for selection of loan targets are harsh, the threshold is too high, taxes are too heavy; And the prevalence of local protectionism restricts the development of auto consumer credit. In the global automotive market, 70% of cars are sold through loans, and the proportion of loans for car purchases in North America is as high as 85%. Even in less developed India, the proportion of loans for car purchases reaches 60%. Due to China’s current credit crisis, China’s auto credit lags far behind developed countries and even some developing countries, which is one of the main reasons why China’s loans to purchase cars are less than 15%. All these have limited China's auto consumption and caused so-called excess cars. 1.5 Insurance, including personal pensions, welfare, etc. can not keep up, people have a sense of crisis China is currently in a period of rapid economic growth, it is also a period of adjustment of social structure and economic structure. Although the income of most people keeps increasing, it is difficult to predict or even worry about future income. At the same time, the state is now cancelling various benefits and people are starting to make deposits in case of need. Under this psychological influence, many people put their money in banks to prepare for the event, let alone loan consumption. In Western developed countries, they have a sound insurance system that can eliminate people's concerns about future income expectations. Once people are unemployed, anyone can get relief from the country and can maintain their personal food and clothing. In addition, foreign countries have a perfect medical insurance system. Buying homes and children's education can be resolved through credit consumption and will not affect actual consumer spending. In China, the number of people receiving social insurance is only 150 million, accounting for only 12% of the total population. The basic living allowance in China is far too different from foreign countries, and it is only enough to maintain the minimum living security. This uncertainty in income expectations makes people afraid to lend. 1.6 China is a country with a shortage of resources China is a country with a shortage of oil resources. Fuel supply also restricts the development of private cars. At present, cars consume about 85% of China's total gasoline production and 20% of total diesel production each year. Since China’s oil production reached 120 million tons in 1985, China has gained the status of a major oil producer. At the same time, with the rapid economic development, China has also crossed the ranks of major oil-consuming countries. In the past decade, China’s oil consumption has increased at an annual rate of 5.77%. However, the exploration and development of domestic oil resources are still weak and the annual output growth rate is only 1.67%. Experts predict that in the next 8-10 years, China’s oil production will not be able to grow significantly. Even if domestic oil demand is estimated to be below the limit, oil production is estimated to be capped. In 2010, China’s oil supply and demand gap will also be more than 100 million tons. . This also limits China's car consumption. 1.7 China's current auto industry is a highly profitable industry, achieving a lower scale of operational requirements China's auto industry's average profit rate is as high as 28.45%, far higher than the average international industry profit of 3% to 5%. The rate will enable Chinese auto companies to earn money as long as their output reaches 10,000 vehicles. At the same time, the characteristics of the automotive industry chain can bring considerable room for development to the local economy. A car from production to sales and use, the entire process can provide nearly a thousand jobs. It is precisely because the automobile industry plays a decisive role in the employment and development of the tertiary industry, which has made many localities use every possible means to regard the automobile industry as the pillar of local economic development. This has led to the rapid development of automobile production, resulting in oversupply. 2 Measures to Relieve Automobile Excess (1) In order to limit the current overheating of auto investment in China, first reform the investment and financing system, liberalize the capital market, allow private enterprises, joint-stock companies and other capitals to enter the automotive sector, and state-owned capital can be listed and circulated. While the restrictions on the Sino-foreign joint ventures have been liberalized, the equity ratio will be determined by the joint venture parties themselves. Second, reform the financial management system and encourage the combination of industrial capital and financial capital. Third, all levels of government should be restricted to invest directly in the automotive industry. (2) Establish and improve personal credit system, reduce the risk of bank auto consumption credit, establish a public information network covering the whole society, determine the only social security code for residents, establish personal information files, increase the economic value of information, use legislation form Determine the release, use, and confidentiality of information, and develop and utilize multiple levels. To complement the construction of the social public information network, establish and improve bank personal consumer credit intermediary services to diversify and reduce the risks borne by banks. This will increase the amount of auto credit and stimulate the auto consumption market in China. (3) Banks, insurance companies and distributors join hands to share risks. Automobile manufacturers, distributors, commercial banks, insurance companies, and traffic management departments must work together to introduce vehicle insurance and owner’s individual life insurance into auto consumption loans; change the use of “non-automobile†items as a guarantee method, simplify loan procedures, and expand Car consumer credit provides strong support. (4) Accelerate the construction of urban infrastructure in China and change people's idea of ​​using cars instead of cars. To develop private cars, we must also promote the transformation of urban structures. Traffic congestion is the main reason that restricts the consumption of cars. Vehicle transport is another important reason for traffic congestion. According to statistics, the daily use ratio of Beijing's existing vehicles is as high as 80%, which is four times that of Tokyo. In some developed countries, many families own one or even several private cars, but still take public transportation such as subways to and from work, and private cars are only used for some free time on the weekends. At the same time, China will increase its investment in infrastructure, especially road construction. It is also necessary to vigorously develop satellite cities, implement urban functional zoning, realize urban suburbanization, and suburban urbanization. In urban centers, travel mainly depends on the public transport system, and private cars outside the central area play a leading role. Only in this way can traffic jams be resolved. (Cheng Jun)
A Brief Analysis of China's Automobile Surplus
Abstract: China's automobile manufacturing industry is now in a period of rapid development. From the current point of view, the increase in the number of cars in our country has exceeded the demand for cars from our residents, resulting in excess capacity for cars. However, at the same time, China is also a developing country. The ownership of automobiles is much lower than that of developed countries and even lower than some developing countries. There are many reasons for the current car surplus in China. The article analyzes some of them and puts forward some countermeasures. 1 Analysis of the causes of excess cars in China 1.1 China's economic development is lagging behind China is a developing country. Although China’s economic strength has been greatly improved after more than two decades of reform and opening up, China’s economic foundation is weak. With a large population, compared with Western developed countries, there is a big gap in China's economic development level. The country’s total national economy is huge, and its economy is developing rapidly. Compared with developed countries, it has developed rapidly. However, we can also see that due to the large population of our country, there is a big gap between the per capita GDP and the developed countries. Because China's economic aggregate is huge, it shows that our country's automobile market is huge, and the purchasing power of residents has risen significantly. But overall, the overall purchasing power of our residents is still low. As a high-end luxury goods, automobiles still do not have the conditions to enter millions of households in China. 1.2 China's backward infrastructure construction First, our urban planning standards are too low, and the urban planning structure is irrational, leading to urban traffic congestion. According to the standard, the per capita area of ​​the city is 100m2, while the foreign country is generally 150m2, but the vast majority of cities in this standard are far from reachable. The proportion of land occupied by urban roads is 15% in China and 25% in foreign countries. Except that Beijing exceeds 10%, most cities in China are below 10%. Many urban constructions are not based on functional area planning and construction, but extend in a plane and the road structure is irrational. Too low urban planning standards not only lead to urban traffic congestion, but also lead to urban parking difficulties. The parking time of a car is much longer than the time it takes to run on the road, so parking or static traffic is an important part of urban infrastructure construction. However, for a long time, insufficient attention has been paid to the issue of parking lots in urban construction in China. The understanding of parking issues lags behind the development speed of vehicles. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the current parking berths in the major cities account for far less than the international level. The confusion in management and the unreasonable parking lot setting have artificially exacerbated the difficulty of parking in various cities. Second, there are serious structural defects in the urban road network in our city. A country with a private car developed must be a country with developed urban public transport. Well-developed public transportation can greatly reduce traffic jams and leave room for private cars. The proportion of the population of the world’s metropolitan public transport systems is between 50% and 60%, while the proportion of public transport in China is less than 30%. Many of the trips rely on bicycles and motorcycles. The data shows that in cities with a higher degree of motorization in the world, their rail transit volume accounts for more than 50% of the total bus traffic, and some of them exceed 70%. The rail transit network, which is dotted, effectively relieves the traffic pressure brought about by the dense population. China's urban public transport mainly relies on automobiles. For example, the current rail transit line in Shanghai is only 65 kilometers in length. Tokyo's rail transit line is nearly 2000 kilometers, and the optical metro line is more than 200 kilometers. In Beijing, residents use subways less than 15% of the total bus fleet. In Shanghai, the daily traffic volume of rail transit accounts for only a tenth of the passenger flow. 1.3 Overheated investment in China's auto industry. The scale of production is small, and the repeated construction is serious. In recent years, the demand for the automotive market in China has grown at a rapid rate, and the development of the automotive industry shows a good trend of speed, quality, and efficiency. However, under the stimulating demand from the domestic auto market, the investment in automobile manufacturing and automobile service trade has expanded rapidly. Many departments, localities, and companies have used the automobile industry as the leading industry for economic growth. In recent years, there have been hundreds of billions. Yuan invests in the automotive industry. There are 23 provinces and cities in China that produce cars. However, from a worldwide perspective, the traditional automobile market has become saturated, and the production capacity of major multinational automobile companies has been excessively severe and the competition is fierce. In order to adapt to this competitive situation, the development of the global automotive industry shows new trends: First, large-scale mergers and reorganizations in the international arena, expanding the scale of enterprises, increasing market concentration; second, accelerating technological innovation, producing high-end products, and adapting to current social development The request. However, China’s auto construction is still a low level of repeated construction. The organizational structure of China's auto industry is significantly behind that of the international community. Last year, there were 123 vehicle manufacturers in 27 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The number of automakers in China is more than the sum of automakers in all other countries in the world, but the total annual output of all automakers in China is lower than the annual output of a Japanese Toyota company. In China, there are only two companies with an annual output of more than 500,000 vehicles, and there are only eight companies with more than 100,000 vehicles. There are 95 companies with a production capacity of less than 10,000 vehicles and 70 of them have a production capacity of less than 1,000 vehicles. This kind of low-level redundant construction in China's auto industry has caused China's current auto production to fail to achieve scale efficiency, and the cost of auto production has always been too high. In addition, due to the use of the automobile industry as a pillar industry in their provinces, and in order to develop their own automobile industry and avoid threatening the province’s automobile production, the provinces will inevitably have some short-sighted behavior and cannot predict the consequences of excessive investment. Some unreasonable policies to restrict the province's cars into the province. This also limits China's car consumption. 1.4 China's auto finance is lagging, and personal credit problems are serious. Auto consumption credit and its guarantee insurance face difficulties. At the end of 1998, after the domestic insurance companies launched automobile consumer loan guarantee insurance, the auto consumption loan business showed a rapid growth trend, and it also expanded the business development space for the domestic insurance industry. However, behind the boom in auto consumer credit and its guaranteed insurance market, its hidden high risks are beginning to show up. This risk is mainly due to malicious borrowings of some borrowers (about 30% of borrowers in the auto consumer credit business are not repaying on time) and premeditated fraud, resulting in the current auto consumption credit and guarantee insurance policy being in a difficult position. Follow. The current problems in China's auto credit mainly include: the personal credit system has not yet been established; there are many problems in the system of guarantees and insurance; too few lending institutions and the number of vehicles supported by loans; the conditions for selection of loan targets are harsh, the threshold is too high, taxes are too heavy; And the prevalence of local protectionism restricts the development of auto consumer credit. In the global automotive market, 70% of cars are sold through loans, and the proportion of loans for car purchases in North America is as high as 85%. Even in less developed India, the proportion of loans for car purchases reaches 60%. Due to China’s current credit crisis, China’s auto credit lags far behind developed countries and even some developing countries, which is one of the main reasons why China’s loans to purchase cars are less than 15%. All these have limited China's auto consumption and caused so-called excess cars. 1.5 Insurance, including personal pensions, welfare, etc. can not keep up, people have a sense of crisis China is currently in a period of rapid economic growth, it is also a period of adjustment of social structure and economic structure. Although the income of most people keeps increasing, it is difficult to predict or even worry about future income. At the same time, the state is now cancelling various benefits and people are starting to make deposits in case of need. Under this psychological influence, many people put their money in banks to prepare for the event, let alone loan consumption. In Western developed countries, they have a sound insurance system that can eliminate people's concerns about future income expectations. Once people are unemployed, anyone can get relief from the country and can maintain their personal food and clothing. In addition, foreign countries have a perfect medical insurance system. Buying homes and children's education can be resolved through credit consumption and will not affect actual consumer spending. In China, the number of people receiving social insurance is only 150 million, accounting for only 12% of the total population. The basic living allowance in China is far too different from foreign countries, and it is only enough to maintain the minimum living security. This uncertainty in income expectations makes people afraid to lend. 1.6 China is a country with a shortage of resources China is a country with a shortage of oil resources. Fuel supply also restricts the development of private cars. At present, cars consume about 85% of China's total gasoline production and 20% of total diesel production each year. Since China’s oil production reached 120 million tons in 1985, China has gained the status of a major oil producer. At the same time, with the rapid economic development, China has also crossed the ranks of major oil-consuming countries. In the past decade, China’s oil consumption has increased at an annual rate of 5.77%. However, the exploration and development of domestic oil resources are still weak and the annual output growth rate is only 1.67%. Experts predict that in the next 8-10 years, China’s oil production will not be able to grow significantly. Even if domestic oil demand is estimated to be below the limit, oil production is estimated to be capped. In 2010, China’s oil supply and demand gap will also be more than 100 million tons. . This also limits China's car consumption. 1.7 China's current auto industry is a highly profitable industry, achieving a lower scale of operational requirements China's auto industry's average profit rate is as high as 28.45%, far higher than the average international industry profit of 3% to 5%. The rate will enable Chinese auto companies to earn money as long as their output reaches 10,000 vehicles. At the same time, the characteristics of the automotive industry chain can bring considerable room for development to the local economy. A car from production to sales and use, the entire process can provide nearly a thousand jobs. It is precisely because the automobile industry plays a decisive role in the employment and development of the tertiary industry, which has made many localities use every possible means to regard the automobile industry as the pillar of local economic development. This has led to the rapid development of automobile production, resulting in oversupply. 2 Measures to Relieve Automobile Excess (1) In order to limit the current overheating of auto investment in China, first reform the investment and financing system, liberalize the capital market, allow private enterprises, joint-stock companies and other capitals to enter the automotive sector, and state-owned capital can be listed and circulated. While the restrictions on the Sino-foreign joint ventures have been liberalized, the equity ratio will be determined by the joint venture parties themselves. Second, reform the financial management system and encourage the combination of industrial capital and financial capital. Third, all levels of government should be restricted to invest directly in the automotive industry. (2) Establish and improve personal credit system, reduce the risk of bank auto consumption credit, establish a public information network covering the whole society, determine the only social security code for residents, establish personal information files, increase the economic value of information, use legislation form Determine the release, use, and confidentiality of information, and develop and utilize multiple levels. To complement the construction of the social public information network, establish and improve bank personal consumer credit intermediary services to diversify and reduce the risks borne by banks. This will increase the amount of auto credit and stimulate the auto consumption market in China. (3) Banks, insurance companies and distributors join hands to share risks. Automobile manufacturers, distributors, commercial banks, insurance companies, and traffic management departments must work together to introduce vehicle insurance and owner’s individual life insurance into auto consumption loans; change the use of “non-automobile†items as a guarantee method, simplify loan procedures, and expand Car consumer credit provides strong support. (4) Accelerate the construction of urban infrastructure in China and change people's idea of ​​using cars instead of cars. To develop private cars, we must also promote the transformation of urban structures. Traffic congestion is the main reason that restricts the consumption of cars. Vehicle transport is another important reason for traffic congestion. According to statistics, the daily use ratio of Beijing's existing vehicles is as high as 80%, which is four times that of Tokyo. In some developed countries, many families own one or even several private cars, but still take public transportation such as subways to and from work, and private cars are only used for some free time on the weekends. At the same time, China will increase its investment in infrastructure, especially road construction. It is also necessary to vigorously develop satellite cities, implement urban functional zoning, realize urban suburbanization, and suburban urbanization. In urban centers, travel mainly depends on the public transport system, and private cars outside the central area play a leading role. Only in this way can traffic jams be resolved. (Cheng Jun)