China Drying News In 2012, under the backdrop of continuous deepening of the international financial crisis and increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, the economic operation of the petrochemical industry achieved steady growth, but the growth rate declined, especially the economic benefits. According to statistics, from January to October 2012, the industry’s total profit was 620.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, while the national industrial profits grew by 0.5%. Among them, the total profit of the chemical industry decreased by 12.3% year-on-year. The industry is confronted with a series of thorny issues such as outstanding contradictions in overcapacity, weak innovation capacity, and increased pressure on safety and environmental protection.
In 2013, the world economic situation has gradually improved, and the country has also issued a series of related regulatory measures to rectify backward production capacity and cultivate new economic growth points. However, the economic situation at home and abroad remains complex and changeable. In this case, where will this year's chemical market go?
Methanol: Going low and going high gradually
In 2012, it was undoubtedly the worst year for domestic methanol companies in the past decade. In addition to the profits of very few companies, more than 80% of the methanol companies suffered losses or remained unchanged. Even the methanol companies that produce the lowest total cost of coke oven gas have difficulty in achieving profitability due to the low loading rate of coke devices and insufficient supply of raw materials. In particular, after mid-December, due to the reduction in downstream demand, the price of methanol has bottomed out again, raising concerns about the 2013 methanol market. However, in combination with various factors, the domestic methanol market will not be too bad in 2013, and the loss of enterprises will be significantly reduced, and the operating rate is expected to increase.
Urea: cautiously optimistic high run
In 2012, the domestic urea market fluctuated and fluctuated. In the first half of the year, prices hit a new high since 2009. However, after mid-to-late May, prices began to fall, and the volatility was as high as 600 yuan (t price, the same below). The overall performance of the whole year was better. In 2013, the urea market will still present a relatively good situation. The main reason is that it benefits from the country's “three rural†policy, the minimum price for grain protection continues to increase, and farmers’ enthusiasm for planting increases. However, due to increasing urea production capacity, the contradiction between production and marketing is expected to be more prominent, and exports will become the key. Urea prices are expected to operate at relatively high levels in 2013 due to production cost support.
Tires: brighter prospects for profit
In 2012, China's tire industry can be described as “tremendous rainâ€. Sales revenue growth slowed sharply. The annual sales growth rate was around 3%, but profits increased significantly, and year-end inventory also showed a declining trend year-on-year. In 2013, the situation is relatively clear, the operating environment of tire companies will improve, and the production and sales of tires will gradually improve. In particular, corporate profits will increase substantially, and a wave of investment in tires will be created.
Glyphosate: Demand is not less optimistic than expected
2012 is another year of harvest for the glyphosate industry. Although the debt crisis in Europe continued to ferment, under the adverse conditions of shrinking external demand, domestic demand and other unfavorable factors, the glyphosate market has a good view, becoming a touch of light in the cold night. In 2012, the price of glyphosate rose from 24,850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 34,000 to 36,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The relatively low inventory and the strong demand for downstream agriculture led the gradual transition of the glyphosate industry chain to the restocking phase. After three years of silence, the glyphosate market ushered in a full recovery. The industry believes that compared with the previous year, the trend of glyphosate was flat or slightly higher in 2013. People have more expectations for the 2013 glyphosate market.
Butadiene: just need to increase "money"
At the end of 2012, the butadiene market closed at a time when Panjin Ethylene and Qixiang Tengda had raised market prices. There is reason to believe that butadiene will enter 2013 with a good start.
Pure benzene: for less need to continue high
In 2012, the domestic pure benzene market as a whole rose by a high, hitting a new high in history, and the degree of concern increased day by day. It also allowed upstream and downstream companies to look forward to the future. In 2013, the pure benzene market will continue to be relatively high due to the tight resources in the international market, the growth of downstream demand, deceleration of expansion, and high stability of important basic organic chemical products.
Compound Fertilizer: Steady and good center of gravity moves up
In the second half of 2012, the compound fertilizer industry was in a relatively tangled state. The fluctuations in the price of nitrogen fertilizers and potash fertilizers in the upper reaches and the uncertainty in the outlook for the industry have indeed caused the fertilizer market to continue to be lost for quite some time. After entering December, with the start of the winter storage market, the domestic compound fertilizer trend gradually improved.
In 2013, stimulated by the loosening of export tariffs for fertilizers and favorable policies for beneficial farmers, raw material prices showed a steady upward trend, which drove up the price of compound fertilizers. In the past few days, the reporter interviewed the compound fertilizer production enterprises and agricultural material distributors. They all stated that the overall situation of compound fertilizers has been improving steadily in 2013, and the actual transaction price of compound fertilizers should be difficult to rise in the short term, and the focus of transaction prices will be slowly shifted upwards. .
Calcium carbide: The game of supply and demand is mixed
In 2012, the calcium carbide market experienced a battered market environment, showing a downturn and an overall weakness. At the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, there were two reasons for being forced to stop production due to large-scale losses; in the second and third quarter, the enterprises struggled to make a slight profit; until the end of the fourth quarter, the short-term upward rebound made the production and operations of the company slightly eased. . It can be said that the calcium carbide industry entered 2013 in the midst of a painful toll under the cost line and repeated production and shutdown.
Propylene: Demand Sluggish in Demand
In 2012, due to the shrinking demand, the overall propylene market was weak and the prices were low. Looking forward to 2013, on the one hand, the downstream market demand for propylene continues to shrink. On the other hand, many companies are competing to launch propane dehydrogenation to produce propylene, methanol, propylene, and other proprietary propylene units. At the same time, petrochemical companies are accelerating the construction of large-scale crackers. The industry’s concern is that In 2013, the propylene market is unlikely to change, and the downturn will continue.
Caustic soda: imbalance between supply and demand is difficult
Although caustic soda prices fluctuated several times in 2012, the overall profitability of the industry was relatively good. In 2013, factors such as overcapacity, shrinking exports, high cost, and reduction in production and production will jointly dominate the future market trends. The domestic caustic soda market will be adjusted for shocks.
PVC: Continuing Weak Steps
In 2012, the domestic PVC market can be described as "cast over" and "low", and PVC costs and selling prices continue to fall. In 2013, if the PVC industry expands beyond the pace, it will inevitably exacerbate future price competition.
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